[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Paranoia - An analysis of Bear-ery

Now, this analysis will be shaded a bit differently than my previous ones. Given that bears are much harder to catch than wolves, this analysis will concentrate more on underlying attitudes than hard cold data.

Before I even start with the post-by-post analysis, Paranoia has the least amount of posts of any player, living or dead, save Mira who was modkilled for not being able to participate. That seems to be a point against him already, since bears are likely to not want to draw attention to themselves.

#30 - IC banter. In it, he scolds Eomer for his baseless accusations against BG, mentions that BG's alignment will be known "sooner or later", and IC-accuses Rikae.

#99 - Kind of comes down hard on BG here.

Originally Posted by Paranoia

I bet a metamorph version of her couldn't resist the same urges to act like a plum fool.

Also claims Eomer's vote is "OMGUS" (translated as "Oh my gosh, you suck" and is commonly used to denote a vote for personal reasons rather than game-related ones... i.e. revenge votes), but it's not, not really. Explains that he "didn't have much time", which may be true, but it also offers a reason for a wereBear not to be as active as he/she might be normally. Puts suspicion on Sally's vote. Ends up voting BG, and does a list. Puts myself and Izzy both in the "Mostly Harmless" category. This is slightly meta and possibly a disregardable point, but I can't help but wonder if a Bearanoia wasn't making an attempt there to butter up the two people he knows outside BD.

#105 - Continues explaining why BG's explanation of her list isn't satisfactory. I can't say much about this, given that I did the same thing, but I've noticed that a commonly-used Bearish tactic is to concentrate on one subject to the exclusion of all else to give the appearance of being helpful.

#211 - Mega-post, defending himself against Pitch and condemning Wilwa. He didn't do too much else during this day, and this was an awfully zealous defense... over-zealous, maybe? Were-Bears can't afford to gather too much suspicion - they're their only chance to win, after all. Maybe Noia was trying to defuse suspicion of him at the root. He also is "very much inclined to think" Lottie innocent. Lottie was a pretty clear discussion leader, given how much she posted - possibly more buttering-up?

#217 - Helps winty with coding.

#222 - Helps winty with coding.

#248 - Several things here, so let me quote:

Originally Posted by Paranoia

I'd like to say day 3, and two metamorphs down; fantastic work, crew. i'd also like to say losing Lottie is quite a blow; two gifted down in two days does not make me a happy camper, though losing the telepath was partially my bad.

There is a hitch in whatever killed "Lieutenant Sally" But that's not our primary concern as of this moment; if it's not obvious.

Now, I'd like Pitch to pop up and answer my questions to him in that big rambling nightmare of a post I made at the end of day 2.

I'd also like to see more of Shasta's analysis. And Rikae's.

In the meanwhile, I'm going back to Lottie's posts to see if there's much of anything there that might be of use; with only one metamorph left, I doubt she would have been murdered to redirect suspicion as much as it's likely she was murdered to get suspicion off of someone. And last I checked, she had definite suspicions of Izzy.

First off, I get what Rikae said about the "smugness". It's almost as if a bearaNoia is congratulating us for getting rid of threats to him.

Secondly, the "oh the bear's not a threat" tone of his second line.

Thirdly, how he asks Pitch, myself, and Rikae for such-and-such. This is a tactic I've used before myself - it's a way to look like you're participating, but actually you're getting others to act as your smokescreen.


Conclusion - well, I can't see any reason for Noia to not be the bear, and I've got a pretty good feeling based on what he's said that he is... so I'm thinking I'll probably vote him today and Pitch tomorrow.