I tend to agree with you all in the fact that Eru was somewhat modeled after the God of Christian faith(of which I am a part). This can be easily understood by the fact that Tolkien was a Christian himself.
I also lean toward the fact that the inhabitants of Middle Earth did
not have free will, and everything that played out was by 'fate', if you pardon the expression.
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I would say that beings in Middle Earth did have free will, but that Eru knew what was going to happen.
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This theory is not sound. If each being had a free will, then they could essentially change what was going to happen to themselves. Then when it is said that Eru knew the future,... well he could not. If he had a pretense of what was going to happen, and someone changed the course of history so that it did not occur, then he did not really know the future. But if the event did occur, then it all played out according to what he had forseen, and nothing could have been changed by the people of ME. Meaning they had no free will. So the statment does not work.
But yes, my conclusion is that ME beings only beleive they have control of their future, but they are, in fact, going down a chosen path that twists and turns with every
'choice' they make.