[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))

There's some interesting lines (bolded) in two of those posts.

#812.

Originally Posted by Skip

There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

#823.

Originally Posted by Skip

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.

Mmn. Well, I really don't know about you either way, Agan– and I can see points against you, all right– but all the same I think it might be useful to see where this "one of them must be a wolf" meme comes from, and/or who has been helping it along.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.

Maybe the bit you already quoted?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

See my points above for how the wolf could have picked him as the Ranger... but Lommy's point still doesn't make sense.

By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once, so in theory Skip could have saved himself on the night of no-kill. That seems unlikely, however.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?

EDIT:fixed quotes and formatting.