[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he were innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.

I admit I never strongly suspected Glirdan. The only thing I really had against him was Sally's accusations at the end of the Day which did look rather wolf-on-wolf. Along with hearing his defense, I would've loved to look at Glirdan more in depth, but Day 3 was my worst Day participation-wise. I didn't have any solid suspects at the time of voting, nor did I have time to look for any...I chose to vote Glirdan because I knew if he survived the Day, he would continue to bug me the following Days. Knowing his role would help enlighten us on other players, so I figured it was worth lynching him...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players.

Just to make it clear, when making my analysis posts, I am writing down my suspicions based solely on what I'm analysing. While someone may look incredibly guilty in voting for example, they could've done something else that makes them look extremely innocent. Which is why you might've interpreted it as flipping. My post with the list of players are my overall thoughts for the Day.

I'm sorry if you think I misrepresented you. Again, I am limited on time and am doing these analyses while at work (though my job requires little attention, I do have to stop periodically while in the middle of writing something), so I could of easily missed something, but that's how I read it. I realise I probably should've put you in the wishy-washy section (I was debating it at the time since you seemed to be somewhere in between the two)...when I say wishy-washy, I mean players who see both sides of the issue, but are vague or hesitant when it comes to stating their own opinion on the matter.

Onto other things...

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, I feel pretty certain that neither of the Shasta voters are wolves. It was fairly obvious from early on that Nogrod would most likely be lynched, so it would've been easier for the wolf to blend in with the large bandwagon than stick out. Someone mentioned that Nogrod would've been aware that he was in danger of getting lynched and instructed his mate to suspect him. Having been wolves with Nog several times, this sounds to me exactly like something he would do.

With Lottie not dead yet, I think it's most probable that the final wolf is seeking out the cursed. It makes sense...the odds are certainly not in his/her favour, and by turning a cursed, the chances for a wolf win would double. Someone (I think Lommy) suggested looking at Nienna's posts since it's less likely those who were suspected by her would kill her in fear of being hunted. I agree; now without any packmates left, the lone wolf should've been perfectly aware of the hunter and would try to avoid at all costs getting hunted since that would mean game over for the wolves.

Btw, good to see you posting, Mira. I actually texted Nienna telling her to remind you to vote toDay when she sees you, in case you weren't aware of the possible modfire.