[Aganzir]

I underline questions that I'd like answered because that way they're easier to notice and more difficult to forget about.

**

DAY 1

Nerwen started day 1 with some banter with sally and suggested the motive behind Fea's vote should be discussed. Then she sort of nudged suspicion toward winty which I still find suspicious:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh* Now I suppose we have to decide whether this is innocent or guilty-looking. Would a wolfywolfy's* packmates have shown him the ropes on Night One, and told him not to do this? Or would they have left him in the dark in the hope that he'd look like a confused innocent? Or is he, in fact, innocent? You know, the usual.

It's just way too easy, even for a day 1 suspicion. It was a newbie's first post and Nerwen is suggesting it might be wolfish. She isn't really accusing him herself, rather just saying that we have to decide. So if winty was lynched and innocent she could have backed out beautifully.
When I questioned her about it (saying that older wolves usually tell cubs to be just as confused as they would without a pack guiding them), she sort of downplayed it by saying that wolf tactics tend to run in cycles. What does that comment actually mean and could you give some examples? Because I think some things that have been tested and found useful remain the same from game to game, one of them being that newbie wolves are encouraged to act like newbies. She also countered my accusation of her just looking for an easy lynch with:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And actually, that looks a lot more like an Aganwolf looking for an easy lynch. I remark on one of the few noteworthy things that had happened– and you call it suspicious? Why?

**

DAY 2

As a response to Brinn, she said she wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) either because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd (why were they odd?), but she also acknowledged she doesn't want to fall into the "one of them has to be a wolf" trap. We know Green was innocent and at least I'm feeling very good about Lommy and alright about Legate, but in any case, if Nerwen's a wolf, none of the Lottie-voters can be. So while saying that doesn't necessarily imply Nerwen is a wolf, it would be a very convenient thing for Nerwolf to drive forward.

In 254 Nerwen gathered quotes "expressing surprise or confusion where I just don't think it's warranted." She had one by sally (the rest were by Nienna, Lommy & me, all of whom (most likely) innocent):

Originally Posted by sally

what the heck happened at the end of the Day yesterDay? Don't get me wrong, yay dead cobbler, but a dead cobbler is not a dead wolf. Sally demands an....an expla.....explanat....some country.....

which she commented by asking what sally meant by "what the heck" and suggested there was a possible hint of wolfish chagrin there.
She added she didn't know how people could be surprised about Fea (who, I think, was acting in a rather Fea-like manner) being the cobbler, and that she was surprised anyone didn't see a connection between Boro & Lottie and figure out they were the Sheriffs.

She said she didn't know what to make of Zil's vote (for Mira, based on my suspicion of her), but thought his jumpiness was okay and Nog was taking a single remark totally out of context. She added Nog didn't look very good because of it but mitigated it, saying it was probably just a language problem.

Then she voted for sally whom she found the most suspicious at that point. She quoted a conversation between Shasta and sally about Morsul on day 1 and said sally looked like a wolf preparing to jump on an easy victim - or a packmate - and hastily going into damage control mode when her plan didn't work out. She ended her post with a back door:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I do mean to be back before DL, and will retract if Sally makes a sufficiently convincing case for her innocence, or if someone else starts looking worse.

**

DAY 3

Glirdan was suspected from the start of day 3, not the least because of sally's sudden turn on him. Nerwen marked sally's sudden change of tone in her last posts (when she urged Nienna to switch to Glirdan) and said

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't think she'd been planning to do that all along– but she might have thought, "hey, since I'm going down, why not stage a 'desperate' last-second attack that will make my packmate look good?"

which, I think, looks a tad like Nerwen knew too much.
She also added:

There's a question of whether Sally honestly believed she had a chance of changing the outcome at that point (right on DL).

What does this comment have to do with anything?

Morsul suggested sally was planning to do a false seer-reveal, and Nerwen commented:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Might well be. But again, if her cry of "Glirdan's a wolf!" was meant to be the start of her "reveal", I have to wonder why she left it so late.

Which, in my opinion, is another post where it looks like Nerwen knew too much. Like, most others speculated on whether Glirdan and sally could've been fellows, but Nerwen just somehow, I don't know, seems to take it for granted.

Later she added that we shouldn't concentrate only on Glirdan (this comment could go either way), and after that made a post about sally & Glirdan's interaction. She reached the conclusion that Glirdan was possibly a wolf, but added some points that were against the theory of him and sally being wolves together (#1: Glirdan, who started suspecting sally more the more votes she got, might not have kept track of voting; #2: they two were the most likely lynch-candidates which could've given them a reason to suspect/want to kill the other; #3: Glirdan tends to go with the flow and might have been influenced by many people suspecting sally). This could go either way too, I suppose. While the Nerwolf I remember is happy to throw her fellows under the bus, I recall she's often done it a bit hesitantly; not voted for them unless it was really necessary - and I suppose it wasn't certain Glirdan would be lynched. But innocent Nerwen might have said that as well.

Nerwen sort of accused skip of "trying one approach after another to defend Glirdy," and it's somewhat suspicious because it happened before Glirdan's role was revealed and before that, Nerwen herself had expressed some doubt about Glirdan being evil. In her next post she agreed with Nog about always finding Glirdan's playing style suspicious regardless of his role and said that was why she had been hesitating about him, but voted for Glirdan at the end of the post. It was the last vote (six minutes before deadline) and by then Glirdan already had seven votes (or six as Nerwen crossed with Nienna's vote).

**

DAY 4

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, Greenie's death does not look like a no-trace kill, as she'd attracted quite a bit of suspicion. So I think it's likely the wolves guessed her identity, and/or had a specific motive for killing her (framing someone, taking the heat off a wolf, double-bluffing, etc...)

I think that comment is awfully fishy. Framing whom? If the wolves guessed her identity, it was most likely because Nog was her top suspect. It looks like you were suggesting the wolves wanted to frame innocent Nog.
Heck I can't put my finger on the comment any better, I just think there's something very wrong there.

She moves on to say that we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf but because she suspected Nog, who had also started to creep Nerwen herself out the day before, Nerwen found him worth looking at (that's day 1 only though). People had already started to suspect Nog before that. She concluded that only one of Nog's posts looked furry but because of his overall day 1 tone, she wouldn't be surprised if he was indeed a wolf. That would be quite a convenient way to treat a fellow wolf who was possibly under the risk of lynching.
Then she goes through his day 2. Her conclusion, again, doesn't say anything:

This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

It was only Nog's first post on day 4 (in which he already behaved like a cornered wolf) that Nerwen said she seriously considered voting for Nog. In her analysis of Nog's day 3, she said he didn't look half as bad as Glirdan when she analysed him but that he was leaning furry. I'm not sure if Nog was really acting so much more suspiciously on day 3 than he had on the earlier two, or if Nerwolf, after his posting on day 4, decided it was better for her to start suspecting him. How ever it was, there's a change of tone in Nerwen's last analysis post.

She voted for Nog "Because I think we have to know his role," but added:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'll skim the thread now, and if anyone else really jumps out I may switch.

which is the same she did with sally. Granted, she didn't vote on day 1 and on day 3, when Glirdan was lynched, her vote was the last, but when I talked about Nerwolf who's hesitant when voting her fellows, it was comments like that that I meant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Brinniel quotes one thing I said about Glirdan completely out of context, and then uses that to show I was against lynching him– ignoring everything else I said that Day.

Could you explain how it's out of context? Yeah it's not all you said about lynching Glirdy, but I think it sums it up well enough. And I agree with Brinn that you weren't exactly the most enthusiastic Glirdan-voter...

**

DAY 5

Nerwen suggests Nienna was killed just to eliminate a threat as she didn't go strongly after any living player, and adds that Morsul (who, she later agreed with Lottie, is most likely not furry but isn't doing himself any favours either; and after that said that he's more suspicious again because he's "grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied" him when he said he would've voted himself every day if he had been a wolf with sally) needs looking at and so does Brinn, and Legate (whom she hasn't paid much attention). Brinn looked mostly innocent to her on days 1 & 2 but Nerwen found her day 3 attitude towards lynching Glirdan suspicious, as well as the way Brinn "took her comment out of context." And on day 4 she doesn't think Brinn is behaving like a wolf as a baddie would probably monitor herself better than Brinn has (ie pay more attention to how her comments come across). Her conclusion:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.

which could go either way, again. If Nerwen's a wolf, she isn't pushing Brinn too hard (and therefore might avoid being suspected by her in return) but if she ever needs a lynching candidate, she can pick Brinn easily after that. The way she's behaved today, it looks almost like she's storing up potential lynchees for future use...

Then she analyses skip and finds him mostly suspicious, saying he might have been trying to save Nog (something I don't think a fellow would've done), and that he might be furry or just a very individualist new player, but it's enough for Nerwen to vote for him. Didn't it play a part that Greenie called him the most innocent-looking?

**

Huh if I was as motivated to write essays as WW analyses, I'd have a lot more credits... *thinks of a paper that should've been this long but which she never finished*

Anyway I don't think Nerwen looks good, and at least I would take the chances and lynch her. I should probably have a look at Nog's interaction with her (or Nog's interaction with everybody, for that matter), but having sat and written this for a couple of hours, I don't really feel like it.

I'm taking a break now, will be back later.