[Nerwen]

(I've quoted all her posts in full this time, as there were only four, of medium length, and their content is interesting.)

#463

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Morsul does make a good point and it's certainly a possibility. But it could go either way. It's also possible Sally was making a double bluff and he's in fact innocent.

Glirdan entered the Day late and went through the thread page by page. He started suspecting Sally from the very beginning, and I'm not sure it's clear whether he was aware she was ahead in votes when he was posting these opinions. Though if he were a wolf, I would suspect he would check the vote tally first....if innocent, maybe not. Would an evil Glirdan go after his packmate so eagerly from the beginning of his posts for the Day? If they were both wolves, it would make sense for them to go against each other at the very end since a wolf will be lynched either way. But I don't think Glirdan was a serious candidate until the end of the Day and he started suspecting Sally before that. I suppose if he saw the vote tally and decided she was a lost cause, he could've chosen to throw her under the bus to make himself look better.

Hmm...this is something to think about. It seems quite possible Glirdan is indeed a wolf, but it's definitely something we can't be certain of. It'd be a really good idea to review both Sally and Glirdan's posts from the last two Days. Unfortunately, I will have to pass that task onto someone else as I need to write a debate due tomorrow I haven't even started. I'll be available for the next several hours to make brief comments, but I just won't have any time to write anything very substantial toDay.

Comments: As I showed in my analysis, Glirdan was anything but eager in the pursuit of Sally. I thought Skip at #478 was the first to claim that, but it was in fact Brinniel.


#468

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So it seems Nienna's vote was indeed the deciding vote of the Day. If I counted correctly, the final tally was 8-6. Had Nienna voted for Glirdan instead, it would've been a tie at 7-7 and since Glirdan would've received the last vote, he would've been lynched. So what does this say about Nienna?

If Glirdan is a wolf, she could be anything. If Glirdan is innocent, it would seem more likely that Nienna is innocent. Of course, it is always possible a Nienna-wolf threw her packmate under the bus, though that would've been a bold move since she did have the opportunity to save her. She would have to be pretty confident her team would do just as well if not better without Sally, or believe that Sally would probably be lynched soon anyway so she might as well make herself look better. I'm just not sure how likely that scenario actually is.

Btw, no one has mentioned Izzy's death. My first thought is she was an easy kill because she didn't receive much attention from most players. Though I wonder if there could be more to it. Perhaps it'd be a good idea to look through her posts too...if only I had the time.

Comments: All fair points and logical– the focus on the implications of an innocent-Glirdan scenario does remind me of Nogrod, but that may be coincidence.


#484.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Seeing Nienna's quotes about Sally, considering she was suspecting her from earlier in the Day and the way she went about suspecting, I'd be really surprised if she wasn't innocent...in the scenario that Glirdan is innocent.

So what to do with Glirdan...

One thing I worry is that if he is innocent, this is a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching since I suspect there may be a pretty heavy bandwagon against him toDay. But on the other hand, we can't really know his role for sure until he is lynched...knowing his role would certainly shed light on some things.

I'd love to hear Glirdan's defense, but unfortunately I don't think that'll be happening before I leave for the Day.

#492. Casts second vote on Glirdan

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he was innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.

What to make of this? If I had to go by Day 3 alone, I'd say she might well be Glirdan's packmate. Yet, her Day One and Two posting seems innocent on the whole, and I've seen nothing there to suggest links to the other two known wolves.

She has already talked about some of her Day 3 posting at #675 toDay.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

any slight reluctance I showed in voting Glirdan wasn't so much of me questioning his role, but I was frustrated I had to vote early because I wanted to give him a chance to defend himself first. I've been lynched before without having the chance to defend myself and regardless of role, it really does suck to have that happen. Well, he never did show up to protest the cases against him, but I didn't know at the time he'd turn out to be a complete no-show. Also, I never got much of a chance to look at other players aside from Glirdan, which would've been nice. But honestly, I most likely would've voted him anyway.