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Old 04-14-2010, 11:52 AM   #606
Brinniel
Reflection of Darkness
 
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Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
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Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Brinniel is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch:

Inziladun

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I guess it's possible. And now that I think of it, if Glirdan had been lynched and he was a wolf, Sally could be in some pretty good graces right now, even without a false Seer-reveal.
Still, I don't know that it's all that likely Glirdan is a wolf.
Nerwen (bordering on wishy-washy)

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Might well be. But again, if her cry of "Glirdan's a wolf!" was meant to be the start of her "reveal", I have to wonder why she left it so late.

Did she expect more people to pick up on her Seer-hints than was in fact the case?
skip

Quote:
He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits. For the moment Glirdan has redeemed himself.
Aganzir

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Morsul looks better to me today, I can follow his logic about sally. However I don't think the fact that she tried to lynch Glirdan tells us anything about his role.

Those eager for one:

Morsul

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++Glirdan

It got me one wolf so maybe It'll get me another.
Nienna

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Morsul, that line from Sally has been bothering me as well. I think that the chances are actually quite high that Glirdy is a wolf. She may have been thinking that if I switched and he was a wolf she would be redeemed or she could make a false seer-reveal and if she was lynched it could be passed off as the meaningless banter of a wolf trying to save herself.
Lommy

Quote:
I think it looks like Glirdan was Sally's fellow wolf, not because of any seer reveal plot (I don't believe in that) but just because it looks like that. I think Sally could've tried to make Glirdan look better - or at least make us really divided about him - by attacking him so strongly in the end. What he said about Zil makes me feel it's pure bluff meant to confuse us, and means Zil's probably innocent. She wouldn't have dared to highlight two of her fellows that way. Also, Glirdan's attack on Sally was very wolf-on-wolvish, I think Sally's mates would've known she's in trouble and used that to their own advantage... (not necessarily all of them, but at least one or two. Which makes me think, ha, we have only lynched a cobbler and a wolf this far. Go us!)
Wishy-washy:

Legate

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Otherwise... as for Glirdan and Sally, I think sally's comment can mean either. Whatever is Glirdan's role, Sally either wanted to a) if Glirdan is innocent, to make us wonder about her comment, whether it was so obvious that it was Wolf-on-Wolf or something (the same btw. concerning her comment in her list about Inzil "he's innocent! Don't ask why, he just is" or how it was), and of course preferring if by any chance Glirdy was lynched instead of her - it would give her at least one more Night to live and make us waste yesterDay's lynch and then use toDay's lynch on her, or b) if he's her packmate, she really wouldn't care much whoever of them gets lynched, either way it will be a Wolf (that goes also for all the other Wolves voting, of course, let us bear in mind), and in such a case, if he was lynched, yes, she could gamble toMorrow with a Seer reveal or something (although I think it will be somewhat hard for her to get definite support, but it might lure the real Seer out, and in general sow confusion), or simply, if she was lynched (like she was), we might think that Glirdan was innocent because of all that.
Nogrod

(see post 486)


Votes

Morsul -> Glirdan
Brinn -> Glirdan (2)
Greenie -> Nogrod
Legate -> Inzil
Agan -> Inzil (2)
Lommy -> Glirdan (3)
Skip -> Shasta
Shasta -> Greenie
Nog -> Glirdan (4)
Zil -> Glirdan (5)
Lottie -> Glirdan (6)
Nienna - > Glirdan (7)
Nerwen - > Glirdan (8)

Who looks bad:

Legate: He was very wishy-washy with his thoughts of Glirdan, leaving the possibilities open but not really sticking to one side or the other. Then he ends up voting Inziladun.

Aganzir: That's a big maybe. She would look especially bad if Inzil is innocent since it'd look like she's trying to start another bandwagon. But then, Agan isn't the type to be hesitant about running over her packmates if it made her look better.

Nogrod: His wishy-washy attitude about it. He votes Glirdan but only until it looks evident that he probably can't be saved. An easy spot to hide in a bandwagon.

Nerwen: She seems slightly hesitant about a Glirdan lynch, but ends up going with the flow by the end of the Day...a bit suspicious to me.

Who looks good:

Lommy: She was pretty eager to lynch Glirdan from the start...too eager for wolf-on-wolf, I think.

Nienna: Same as Lommy, though not quite as eager.
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