[Nogrod]

Those of you who have not been around for long may find the concept of "Devil's advocate reading" on someone a strange concept. So let me explain.

"A Devil's advocate reading" of someone means that one reads another from the POV s/he is a wolf and analyses everything in that vein trying to see if that would make a believable pattern / whole. The DAR can be a mighty weapon in catching wolves but it may also backfire badly when one let's her/his imagination to run free looking only at the possible guilt.

I'm not exactly true to DAR here as I also try to see where she might be believably innocent at times, but I must admit there is a lot of it in what follows. And now as I've come clear I'd like to hear your comments Roa. After all any outstanding ordo getting killed is a great loss to us.


This is her first reaction to my suspicion:

Originally Posted by Roa

What? Huh? Really? First, you spend your posts using in character banter, and now you decide I'm guilty on a number slip? With all do respect, are you on something? This is the most ridiculous thing I've seen yet.

That might go either way… But she continues in the same vein in her next one.

What Boro said didn't make sense- he said that wolves are reasonable that gifteds aren't, implying that we ought to be lynching the reasonable ones. (By the way, you most certainly do NOT fall into that category.) Reasonableness is a terrible reason to lynch someone.

I just can’t make these interpretations of Roa and what Boro actually said to meet… And the next one is actually as much overdonme and pointless.

Originally Posted by Roa

Now who's trying to continue the debate? Oh, that would be you. By carrying on about the gifted an what they're doing, you are giving pointers to the wolves about how to spot gifted, and you're distracting the village from doing actual wolf-hunting. Not to mention the whole idea of what Boromir says discourages us from voting for people that we find suspicious for fear that they may be gifted, something that you seem keen to press on everyone while at the same time coming up with ludicrous suspicions that have no merit, further distracting the village.

I was not continuing the debate, I was taking another angle to it and finding Roa suspicious… not to say I was pointing to wolves how to spot gifteds. I mean how was I doing that Roa? I see this post as totally confusing and have a real problem seeing an innocent Roa making it.

The next post (#84) is also interesting as Roa seems really defensive – especially if what I said is totally frivolous like she says… So why bother then? There was no heavy overall suspicion on her at that point. And also she is careful enough to actually trying to make friends with Boro as well explaining her own words better than they were in the first place.

Then I think she makes an interesting move saying (in #88)

Originally Posted by Roa

A reasonable reminder of what, exactly, Nogrod? That we don't want to lynch gifteds? Well, duh, we all know that. What do you make of the second part of his statement? That wolves slip by on reasonableness? How do you take that?

Which is clearly reading another person wrong in purpose… I said Boro made a good reminder of the fact that reasonable-looking people (counting reasonable-looking wolves) tend to pass our radars and the gifteds can look suspicious because of their position and pressure. And even if I answered her second question she never commented on that – so just rhetorics?

Then we come to the heavy ammunition part…

Originally Posted by Roa

Nogrod, you say you're convinced of my guilt, but you refuse to give a reason why besides meta-gaming. And you openly state that you're looking for reasons to lynch me, meaning that you haven't actually got any.

Fair enough - as I have revealed. And I must say I felt a thorn in my side while reading this as it was true. But the continuation was a stretch to put it mildly… or should I say revealing?

Originally Posted by Roa

I am now convinced that the secret role is the cobbler, and Nogrod is it. He's clearly hinting at being the seer, which the seer Nogrod wouldn't do, because he knows better than to do something so risky. Further more, he can't be the seer, because he most certainly wouldn't attack me like this if he was. Make no mistake, this is a cobbler planning a false reveal.

A secret role… a cobbler… what an anticlimax. And as I have argued already on D1 it would be the most stupid thing to come into the center of controversy as a cobbler needs to stay alive into the Days where her/his involvement actually matters.

But interestingly Roa is now talking openly of me hinting at being the seer – as she feels like it as I’m right? – like our game long long ago perhaps? The same feeling might it be?

And a false reveal? Well a good move but sadly not one you would see.

In the next one she says.

Originally Posted by Roa

My problem is that this is the ONLY point he has against me, and yet he claims that he is absolutely convinced I'm a wolf. The fact that he has to look for reasons to lynch me is evidence of the fact that HE HASN'T GOT ANY.

I hope I have now answered your craving for other reasons to suspect you? The capital letters do suggest some desperation to me, but we do express things differently and so I’m not going to make an issue out of it as I don’t feel comfortable with it.

The continuation of that post looked like pretty smart one as ideas go…

Originally Posted by Roa

You may think that a cobbler Nogrod wouldn't go so far so fast, but I think he would- getting rid of one strong player, and forcing the village to lynch him on Day 2, means two days go by with out a dead wolf, and the village becomes significantly quieter.

But really she can’t say with this bunch of people that she and I gone the expedition-ship would be quiet… or even significantly quieter. I know many of the people around could fill the silence we ‘d leave around… and "a cobbler me" would really want to make a difference later in the game when it matters...

Then she went on to make a conditionally true statement.

Originally Posted by Roa

For one, Nogrod doesn't kill loud players when he's a wolf because he sportingly likes to get them lynched. And if he can lynch them early, well, he's done quite a feat.

Agreed. But the last sentence makes me wonder again.

Originally Posted by Roa

And it looks like he's having fun to me. I mean, I'd be laughing my butt off right now if I were in his position.

First I thought “wow, she’s making a confession!” But then I read it again and felt confused. I really don’t get the meaning of that… It so much looks like she’s saying that if she were in my position being able to press on me like I do she’d love it (so actually revealing she was really in trouble) but it couldn’t be as I don’t think Roa would slip that way…

Her last one is an interesting one as well… so answering to Eomer she says

Originally Posted by Roa

Okay, then why would he back off it instead of using it to back up his suspicions? Why rely on the poor reasoning of a slip when he could be using my disagreement with Boromir against me? There's no reason for him not to, so why?

I can see the innocent / guilty anguish there. But how about I was not in the first place willing to “make a case” on D1? How about I was just willing to find your reactions – and part of that game would be that I would not stick to whatsoever suspicion to try and “prove” your guilt, but just letting you know I was after you like I told earlier today to see how you react? To make you feel I know what you are like years ago?

Sorry Roa, that might have been a rude experiment but with the best one needs to use the most cunning methods… and by God I was wavering near the DL as I thought I might get killed the next Night. But then I reasoned it out that if I was right my death would point at Roa clearly enough and if I was wrong the amount of suspicion I had gathered could keep me alive. So I decided to watch the cards through to whatever end they were carrying me.

This “mercy-Day/Night” idea was just superb!


So what do I think myself?

Well I do still suspect Roa. There are so many things that yell wolf to me up there. But I have been looking at others as well during this no-kill Night as I had time. O just need to collect my notes into a reasonable post...


PS. Thanks for the vote-summary Mac! That was a thing I had not made yet... It will help me a lot.