[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

So we traded a seer for the Wererangutan. That's not really a deal I'd prefer making, as we still have four(!) wolves to deal with. At least there's only one kill a night now.

Which almost makes it worth it– so thanks, Wolves! We owe you!

Having looked at Hakon's posts, I agree with Roa and Lari that he probably dreamed Bearomir– and if not, he gave no hints of who he did dream. However, since he didn't say much, believe I'll give his posts in full.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

Which, I suppose, is exactly what he did.

Originally Posted by Hakon

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

Quite amusing: it seems that he used invalid meta-game reasoning, and guess what? It gave him the Bear!

I think we can dismiss his mention of Fea and Sally, since he speaks of them as possible Bear-candidates, and whatever they are, they're not Bears. (*applause* Thank you, Captain Nerwen Obvious!)

Then he explains Morsul's reasoning on the "time-limit".

Then he votes Morsul:

Originally Posted by Hakon

++Morsul

I will not mention half my reasons for this vote since half are meta data. Half are not. The half that are not are pretty clear. They have been mentioned and I feel no need to repeated them in this post. I am out for the night although if I have still not finished school work I will pop on around DL and see who we lynched and what their role is.

Here, I think, we have the explanation for why on Earth Hakon would vote Morsul if he had already bagged a villain. In Hakon's view, meta-reasoning had already served him well on more than one occasion (note his mention of Saucepan Wolf in the last game) and he started putting too much faith in it.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

That's my interpretation, anyways. I can't be sure, because very little of Hakon's actions make sense to me. But we know who killed Hakon, because he's dead too. I think we ought to give more weight to examining Bearomir's death and the Morsul bandwagon's 3 surviving members.

Agreed. I'll look at them now myself.

I wonder if the wolves had guessed who it was they were killing? Reading through yesterDay, I started to think Boro might be the Bear. I say this, not to congratulate myself, but because if I picked him out the wolves might have too, and in that case killing him implies wolves who are cautious and unwilling to gamble.