The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

Nogrod · 10-19-2009, 02:45 PM

Loslote got lynched by four votes.

Hakon -> wilwa
Loslote -> Brinn
Crayon -> Inzil
wilwa -> Brinn 2
Roa -> Nerwen
Lari -> Hakon
Inzil -> Lottie
Pitch -> Lottie
Brinn -> Lottie
Legate -> Lari
Nogrod -> Lottie 4
Nerwen -> Lari 2

(the last three votes were more or less claimed crossposts...)

Of Lottie-lynchers only Inzil and Brinn are unknowns.

First thing:
two of the Lottie-voters were innocent, it is possible a third - or a fourth one - was innocent as well.

Because of the...

Second thing:
As it is highly probable that either Hakon or Wilwa is a wolf, then looking at the last votes there was no difference in the outcome, whether Lottie or Lari got killed (as Lari was not herself involved in the last voyes). So a wolf among those last voters had no special agenda as to whom to vote as it could not have been a case of protecting a mate.

From that follows, that the wolf's decision must have been based on other reasons than who gets lynched ie. how would that vote make her/him look.

Which brings us to the...

Third thing:
The chance of getting Lari lynched at the last minute was a small one indeed - so a safe place for a last minute-voter wolf?

But we must also remember a...

Fourth thing:
As voting Lottie doesn't prove one a wolf it doesn't prove one innocent either. Inzil might have made a fairly safe vote starting the whole thing after lots of people had suspected her. If Brinn is a wolf she must praise Lottie for giving her such an understandable reason to vote her...

And let's not forget either that...

Fifth thing:
Lari voted for Hakon which was both counter-productive and odd. Would a wolf do that? And Roa went basically on a crusade against Nerwen downplaying anything she had to say for her defence. Would she be that assertive as a wolf... no doubt about that. Would she be that assertive as an ordo... no doubt about that either...

So I ended up in a stalemate.

Let me chew these for a moment...

EDIT: X'd with a lot... great, people around!

10-19-2009, 02:45 PM	#11
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Loslote got lynched by four votes. Hakon -> wilwa Loslote -> Brinn Crayon -> Inzil wilwa -> Brinn 2 Roa -> Nerwen Lari -> Hakon Inzil -> Lottie Pitch -> Lottie Brinn -> Lottie Legate -> Lari Nogrod -> Lottie 4 Nerwen -> Lari 2 (the last three votes were more or less claimed crossposts...) Of Lottie-lynchers only Inzil and Brinn are unknowns. First thing: two of the Lottie-voters were innocent, it is possible a third - or a fourth one - was innocent as well. Because of the... Second thing: As it is highly probable that either Hakon or Wilwa is a wolf, then looking at the last votes there was no difference in the outcome, whether Lottie or Lari got killed (as Lari was not herself involved in the last voyes). So a wolf among those last voters had no special agenda as to whom to vote as it could not have been a case of protecting a mate. From that follows, that the wolf's decision must have been based on other reasons than who gets lynched ie. how would that vote make her/him look. Which brings us to the... Third thing: The chance of getting Lari lynched at the last minute was a small one indeed - so a safe place for a last minute-voter wolf? But we must also remember a... Fourth thing: As voting Lottie doesn't prove one a wolf it doesn't prove one innocent either. Inzil might have made a fairly safe vote starting the whole thing after lots of people had suspected her. If Brinn is a wolf she must praise Lottie for giving her such an understandable reason to vote her... And let's not forget either that... Fifth thing: Lari voted for Hakon which was both counter-productive and odd. Would a wolf do that? And Roa went basically on a crusade against Nerwen downplaying anything she had to say for her defence. Would she be that assertive as a wolf... no doubt about that. Would she be that assertive as an ordo... no doubt about that either... So I ended up in a stalemate. Let me chew these for a moment... EDIT: X'd with a lot... great, people around! __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...