[Nilpaurion Felagund]

INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF THE VILLAGERS OF UPPER DOWNSBURY

Prepared by Da Fool

For internal circulation only. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE.

Section 1: Known and Suspected Capabilities of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

All villagers of Upper Downsbury are capable of casting a single vote towards the person they wish to be executed at the end of the DAY, and another vote towards the person they wish to be protected during the NIGHT by the Night Guard.

Some villagers are capable of things beyond the casting votes (see appendix: Gifts and Curses) but there remain at this moment no irrefutable evidence to confirm the manifestation of such gift or curse in any individual in the village.

Section 2: Stated Intentions of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

• Yavannië the 3th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The villager known as Legate of Amon Lanc (henceforth referred to as Legate) received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to the deployment of the Night Guard around the premises of his domicile. It has been proven that this protection disables whatever gift or curse the guarded person may possess.
  
  There being four Werewolves in the village there is great prejudice towards the killing of two villagers during the NIGHT, save if one of their fellows has been protected by the Night Guard.
  
  
• Yavannië the 4th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The murder of the villager known as Mnemosyne has been announced by the Mayor of Upper Downsbury, Eönwë. Later in the DAY, due to the evidence of the single kill during the previous NIGHT and his being under the protection of the Night Guard, Legate received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to his execution by drowning.

Below are the statements of most of the living villagers, indicating their reasons for believing Legate guilty or otherwise. Conspicuously absent is the statement of the villager known as alonariel, who has not broken silence since the beginning of the Werewolf invasion.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.

Taking the unwillingness of the Werewolves to hold back on a second kill as fact, the villager known as Sally comes to a logical conclusion that Legate must be a Werewolf unable to perform his NIGHT function. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

The villager known as Hakon uses his gut feel as evidence for Legate's guilt (said gut feeling has been indicated the previous day in this post. It is therefore important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said feeling:

At the moment of the statement Legate has received four Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, Nerwen, Shastanis Althreduin (henceforth known as Shasta), and Nogrod. There remain eight villagers to cast their Guard votes: Legate, wilwarin538 (henceforth known as wilwa), Pitchwife, alonariel, Thinlómien, Nessa Telrunya (henceforth known as Nessa), McCaber, and Nilpaurion Felagund (henceforth known as Nilp). However Nilp has stated his inability to continue participation in this post; furthermore alonariel and Nessa has not yet joined the discussion.

The possibility of a set-up exists but cannot be reasonable proven.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

The writer refrains from analysing his own posts, and leaves it to the village to generate their own analysis from said posts.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[ I]t does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

Logical conclusion, although considers the possibility of single-kill NIGHTs for framing up an innocent.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Whoa. I wasn't expecting that. I wasn't that suspicious about Leggie yesterDay, but I've been thinking and really can't come up with any sensible reason for the wolves to let pass a Night kill for the sake of framing Legate. Sure, they'd like seeing an innocent lynched, but it just doesn't make sense that they give up their other Night kill for that. Therefore I'll probably vote Legate toDay. It's simply much more evidence against him than there is against anyone else, and if we let him live and he turned out to be a baddie I'd drown myself in a bucket.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?

The villager known as Inziladun indicates the impossibility of determining the truth behind the single-kill NIGHT without the death of Legate. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

[ . . . ]

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

During the previous DAY Legate indicated the possibility of using the Guard vote as a way to catch a possible Werewolf in this post, and further considered the possibility of Werewolves framing an innocent guarded during the Night in this post. The villager known as Boromir88 (henceforth referred to as Boro) considers the possibility of a Werewolf Legate setting up his own defence in case the events that had indeed transpired should come to pass.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

The villager known as Nogrod did indicate in this post and this post his suspicions towards Legate. The rest of the post, however, indicates Legate as test case. As is with the statement of Hakon, it is important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said suspicion:

Nogrod has stated his intention to join a Guard Legate bandwaggon in the first post aforementioned. At the moment of the statement Legate has received two Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, and Nerwen. The writer has searched the archives of the discussion in order to find evidence for the formation of such a bandwaggon, and found the following:

• Mnemosyne indicating her intention to vote Boro, Nogrod, or Legate to be subject to the Night Guard in this post; however she ends up voting for Boromir in this post, before the time of Nogrod's statement.
  
  
• The villager known as Pitchwife indicating his intention to vote Boro, Mnemosyne, and Nogrod to be subject to the Night Guard in this post. He includes Legate in his list with reservation that he is not fully convinced of his innocence. He ends up voting for Boro in this post, after the time of Nogrod's statement.

The writer has therefore detected no clear indication of a Guard Legate bandwaggon previous to Nogrod's statement. However the effect of such a statement on the realisation of such a bandwaggon is unknowable at this time; it is possible to speculate that there may indeed be multiple Werewolves in the Guard Legate bandwaggon to give substantiation to Nogrod's statements. Whether such has been done with Nogrod's complicity or without it is unknowable at this time.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm truly puzzled about Legate at the moment. As I said before, I found his #153 yesterday looking more innocentish than some of those before, and his arguments toDay are well reasoned, even if they happen to be in his own defense. There remains the one kill last Night when he was guarded. I can see the possibility of the wolves framing him - with the Seer dead, they may think they could afford losing one kill; and if he's innocent, he's attracting so much suspicion right now, detracting it from the wolves themselves, that they would be in no hurry to see him killed or lynched.
But that's all maybe; one way or another, we have to find out the truth. Suppose we Guard him one more night, would the wolves again be content with one kill?
That method would become useless, of course, if we happen to have the unbelievable luck of lynching a wolf toDay (instead of our Ranger or Hunter, or a plain ordo). It might be safer to lynch him toDay and lament him toMorrow, if he turns out to be innocent.

Pitchwife considers the possibility of an innocent Legate being framed, however ends with Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]

The villager known as McCaber indicated the possibility of a single-kill NIGHT to set up an innocent villager under Guard in this post.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

My dear people, I sincerely apologize for my prolonged absence! A commission for quite the intricate dress called upon my time.

It seems Legate is widely suspected. It's a valid point, that this is indeed a death that would shed some much needed light.

++Legate [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]

This is only post so far of the villager known as Nessa. The writer sympathises with the interference of 'real life' with participation in the game, and hopes to hear more from her.

Section 3: Conclusions

It is impossible to draw a hidden intention from the stated intentions of the living villagers of Upper Downsbury due to the repetition of the stated intentions of the aforementioned villagers, mainly the logical conclusion and the Legate as test case. There have been some anomalies detected in some of the villagers; unfortunately such anomalies are beyond the scope of this paper and will be addressed at a future date.

Some conclusions about certain villagers drawn from the analysis is as follows:

• Despite complicity in the death of Legate, Boro's innocence can reasonably be proven by the case the latter has made regarding the former.
• It can be construed that Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Hakon, have used the events of the first DAY to substantiate their suspicions and strengthen their suspicions against Legate. However the writer evaluates the possibility as unlikely, such being beyond the control of the two aforementioned, save by the possibility of some of those who voted to subject Legate to the Night Guard being Werewolves and fellows to either of the two aforementioned. The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.
• McCaber, having foreseen the possibility of the use of the single-kill NIGHT to frame an innocent villager up, eschews voting for Legate for reasons of conscience. The meaning of such a statement is impossible to ascertain at this moment.

Appendix

• Gifts and Curses: read the bloody rules.