Interesting surmises. When reading The Hobbit you tend to forget
that it's a Bilbo-centric tale, and the point of him underestimating
Gandalf's attack on the wolves may have a point.
About
Formendacil's speculations on Rohan and Gondor, it's possible
Fengel's son Thengel, already having done well in Gondor and with
connections and sympathy for Gondor, would have returned earlier to
Gondor to influence his rather hedonistic dad and marshall a
strong and reconstituted Rohirrim.
Gondor would have been in not only a relatively stronger position
vis-a-vis Mordor but also with at least competent leadership in Turin II.
Quote:
[It was Turin that built secret refuges for his soldiers in
Ithilien, of which Henneth Annun was the longest guarded and manned.
He also fortified again the isle of Cair Andros to defend Anorien. But his
chief peril lay in the south, where the Haradrim had occupied South
Gondor, and there was much fighting along the Poros. When Ithilien was
invaded in great strength, King Folcwine of Rohan [Fengel's father] fulfilled
the Oath of Eorl and repaid his debt for the aid brought by Geregond, sending
many men to Gondor. With their aid Turin won a victory at the crossing of the Poros
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P.S. If Sauron did try to stir things up you could indeed see 10,000 spears
(hopefully accompanied by 10,000 of the Rohirrim
) riding south to aid
Gondor, or 5,000 or so north with some Gondorian infantry to contest Ringwraith led
mischief in the north (perhaps in a loose allaince with elves-due to Rohan (and Gondorians)
fear of elvish "witchcraft") and more formally with dwarves and men in various locales around
the vales of Anduin and/or Dale).
P.P.S. It would seem Sauron was rather wise to build up his forces and wait upon events.