I thought this might be useful, at least to me:
The
Alona and
Morm wagons and the interaction between the two:
(Going back to Day 2 for a moment,
Durelin put
Alona ahead of
Inzil,
Sally says she thought she was
breaking a tie between them but actually re-tied
Inzil with
Alona, and
Lommy voted
Inzil at the same time,
saying
Alona should be grateful - so there's a point in favor of
Durie and against
Sally and
Lommy off the bat).
Day 3:
11:28 pm:
-
Rikae calls
Sally and
Autume's (meaning
Sally and
Lommy's) retractions to save
Alona suspicious (for them and
for
Alona).
11:29pm:
-
Morm says
Alona looks suspicious based on her voting record, wonders if
Rikae and
Alona are wolves together.
-
Sally begins defending vote retraction with "I x'd with
Alona, and if you'll notice I felt dumb afterward because I didn't realize she'd retracted. And as I had said before, I was planning to break the tie if necessary."
11:30
-
Morm agrees with
Rikae's post about
Alona and her rescuers.
11:31
-
Morm asks
Sally why she felt the need to "do that", presumably, save
Alona.
11:32
-
Sally says
Rikae is too eager to suspect her (
Sally).
-
Alona says she had no idea anyone was going to try and save her, doesn't understand
Lommy's "grateful" comment.
11:33
-
Sally follows
Rikae's mistake in thinking
Autume, not
Lommy, was the other to try and save
Alona. Worth noting, less likely
Sally/
Lommy or
Sally/
Autume are last two wolves (could always be cobbler/wolf).
Tells
Morm she already suspects him, "don't make it worse" - presumably he's making it worse by questioning the vote-retractors.
11:36
-
Sally elaborates on the above with "Saying that I am suspicious for trying to break a tie (albeit in the wrong way, and I still hate myself for it) when I said I was going to do it ages before is horribly suspicious. I completely understand."
11:39
-
Sally says she suspects
Morm for grasping at straws.
11:43
-
Sally: "I just think that coming out and saying "Hey, such and such is suspicious because they did exactly what they said they were going to do" is a bit silly. And really, you'll notice that I wanted to kill
Morm, so I would think he wouldn't be complaining. Just sayin'. (Although when I finish with
Brinn I intend to analyze
Alona because I think she looks darn suspicious right now. YesterDay I didn't have a chance to look at her much and by the time I did it was too late."
(I find the implication that
Morm should stay quiet about suspicions of
Sally our of gratitude very weird).
11:46
-
Rikae notes her mix up of
Autume and
Lommy.
11:50
-
Form logs in and says this about
Alona (among other, non-
Alona talk):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Form
I was more expecting, though, to wake up and find someone like Alona gone--someone making more noise, and generally more suspicious.
Speaking of Alona, her Day-End antics yesterDay definitely bear some investigation, and she definitely seemed jumpy, but it was quite weird--I was around until 10 minutes before the deadline yesterday, and although she'd accrued a lot of suspicion, I was rather surprised with I got on after and caught myself to find that she'd jumped into the tie-line and been saved by a couple bells. The whole Day-End situation is rather tangled and might well include some furry creatures.
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11:51
-
Alona tries to cast some suspicion on
Durelin, or at least questions
Durelin, for her vote post.
11:59
-
Autume says: "if
sally were really trying to help
alona why didn't she vote for
Inzil instead?" - So,
Autume defending
Sally on erroneous grounds.
Also says: "With that said, I think that we also need to be taking a look at
alona. Obviously her vote to try and save herself makes sense. What doesn't make sense is the vote by
Lommy to save her. I can't say that I've gotten any bad vibes from her at this point. I'll have to take a closer look at her toDay and see if I see anything."
12:10 am:
-
Form says "
Alona seems less jumpy--coached overnight by packmates?" and "
Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old
Morm."
12:41:
-
Mac says
Alona's suspicious, but not probably a wolf with
Sally and
Lommy. (I'm not quite sure where he gets this conclusion).
1:02:
-
Alona explains to
Mac why she waited until the last minute (newbie nerves, she says). Says she is wary of
autume and can't read
Form.
7:38:
-
Nessa makes the following statement, not really
Alona or
Morm-related, but I find it really weird and disturbing so I include it here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessa
Ah, what a mess. I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them.
And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.
|
Not sure what to make of it, want to see if anyone does... it has a very detached look I don't like.
8:33:
-
Autume says: "As for the last minute voting yesterDay. It really makes sense for
alona to save herself." and "
morm has raised some of my flags. At some point in time today I'm going to have to go back and analyze
morm."
(Where did she get the idea
Alona was considered suspicious for saving
herself?)
9:00:
-
Lommy explains her vote (
Alona was neutral in her book,
Inzil slightly suspicious) and says she finds
Alona's smiley use suspicious.
10:01:
-
Alona answers
Lommy, saying she'll stop using so many smilies if it bothers her.
10:33:
-
Rikae further questions
Alona about
Sally and
Lommy saving her, and says: "I think the trio of
Sally/
autume/
Alona just has to contain at least one wolf - I have a feeling knowing one of their roles would help sort out the others."
11:18:
-
Morm says: "I agree that at least one of those 3 (
Sally/autume/Alona) are wolves, if not 2 or 3 of them."
12:45:
-
Rikae posts list with
Alona,
Sally and
Autume most suspicious,
Morm as "leaning innocent".
1:45 pm:
-
Durelin says: "
Sally, Nessa, Nienna, Mira, Lommy, alona, autume...so many to lynch, so little time...I guess I need to pick a few favorites."
1:59:
-
Alona says: "So why all the scrutiny on me for the last-minute retractions? It wouldn't have made a difference whether or not it was me or
Dun (is that the nickname we decided on?) who was lynched, the village would still be down an ordo toDay." (Somehow this reaction makes me all the more suspicious
Lommy or
Sally is eeeevil...).
2:14:
- I didn't notice this before -
Durelin says to
Nessa: "If you're the cobbler you should be louder and less worried about lynching a wolf." ... um, why do you say that,
Durie?
Also says: "
alona and
autume - Jumpy, defensive, while agreeable, and highlighting new-ness. Let's see some backbone! They're probably lowest on my list if only maybe because I have no background with them." and "
Rikae and
Morm - I've been agreeing with them quite a bit, and am starting to feel uneasy about it."
(leaving out my long debate with
Sally over her retraction-post, my
Sally vote)
2:25:
-
Sally analyzes
Brinn, finds things she thinks could point to
Morm-bear killing
Brinn, but concludes "
Brinn didn't say much, and her (granted mostly random) votes were both for
Morm. I think
Morm's not that transparent, but it could either be a setup from the bear or
Morm could assume that we'd think that highly of him and use it against us."
2:41:
-
Lommy tells
Alona her smilies aren't annoying, just suspicious. Will think I'm innocent if one of
Sally/Alona/Autume guilty, want to lynch me if they're not.
2:52:
-
Lommy: "As for
Sally's speculation - I can honestly see
morm as a bear and doing that. But I'm still more inclined to consider
Form a bear."
3:45:
-
Lommy lists
Morm as "leaning innocent" and
Alona as "slightly suspicious"
3:46:
-
Autume says "I really feel like
alona and
sally are innocent.
alona's retraction makes sense. She thought she had to save herself. I think
sally made a mistake. I can see why you might suspect her, but she's not acting like wolf-sally.
I haven't had time to analyze
morm yet. However with what
sally said earlier I suspect him even more."
5:41:
-
Mac says: "
Alona's defense in 838 doesn't convince me much.
Both
Alona and
morm think my
Nerwen-comment is interesting, but neither contributed anything to it, so I'm taking their agreemen with suspicion."
6:00:
Alona's list:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alona
Durelin - what I posted earlier still stands - why did she vote based only on the three way tie?
morm - I had a hunch about him yesterDay, but was surprised to see that other people voted for him, too. I think I stated it was just a hunch. I'm less certain of his being evil after re-reading through Day 2, however.
autume - People think she's being chummy, I think it's just being nice. We're turning out to have a similar style so far. Still keeping an eye out, as she could be a newbie wolf, but that's less than a hunch right now.
Sally - I honestly believe it was just a mistake, though her attempt to explain it all out has created quite some confusion and, consequently, some suspicion from me.
Nerwen - unsure, but keeping an eye on her
Lommy - Grateful comment still bugs me, but other than that, I don't have a whole lot of suspicion for her at this point
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7:13:
-
Alona says: "This
Form suspicion has seemed to come not from nowhere, but definitely almost as a sidetrack from me and
Sally. It's confusing and is inadvertently adding to my suspicion of
Sally. I think I'm gonna go back and do another read-through of Day 2..."
7:16:
-
Sally analyzes
Shasta, concludes:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
So really, there's not a lot here either. He suspects (or at least did yesterDay) Mira and thinks Form's shifty as well. He also hasn't left any sort of trace regarding other people; it's almost like he's trying to avoid commenting on the big issues that have been discussed in the game. It might be because he's busy, so I don't really want to lynch him toDay, but I'll be keeping an eye on him.
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7:18:
-
Nienna defends
Sally, asks me to define creepy (actually, I find the question itself... creepy).
7:26:
-
Alona no-votes.
7:33:
-
Autume thanks
Sally for
Shasta analysis. "Thanks for the
Shasta analysis
sally. Definitely someone I want to keep an eye on, but I don't see anything to lynch him today. Like you said there's not a lot to go on."
Weirdish, wolf-to-cobbler-thanks-for-pointing-out-rangerish? Have to take another look.
7:43:
-
Nessa makes a list, which includes:
"
Alona-I just get this... Feeling from her. Like sort of a wolfish feel."
(what a thing for a wolf to say about a companion in danger - doesn't add fuel to the case, but (she probably hopes) will make her look innocent if the other dies...
"
Morm-I am very impressed with. Puts himself out there, but kind of gray, rather than black or white, in terms of role."
8:11:
-
Nessa no-votes, saying: "Well, I have no idea where my vote should go. It would be
Alona, but I'll be sleeping at deadline, and I am loathe to vote someone who has no chance to defend themselves. Sooo....."
8:31:
-
Form says: "
Nessa's No-Vote is less damning than
Alona's"
8:34:
-
Sally votes
Morm, saying he's more suspicious than the other people she's looked at toDay (
Shasta and
Form). Which reminds me, she basically ignored
Alona, except to defend her own
Alona-saving-vote-switching. That is, until:
8:35:
-
Sally: "Oh, and my mind/vote is able to be changed. I'm looking at
Nienna in a bit, and
Alona if I feel like it."
8:37:
-
Autume analyzes
Morm, or rather summerizes, offering almost no opinions of her own until the end where she concludes
Morm is "still suspicious".
8:42:
-
Rikae analyzes
Lommy, concludes: "60% innocent. Will look considerably more guilty if
Alona or
Morm turns out to be a wolf."
8:48:
-
Rikae says: "Hmm, considering switching my vote to
alona, if there is support for it... perhaps still more suspicious than
Sally, and her role might shed light on some others."
8:51:
-
Sally replies: "I still think
Morm's a good choice for toDay, though I see your point about gleaning more from
Alona's death. *shrugs* Can we kill them both?"
-
Form says: "I've got
Morm pushing my buttons and
Alona ringing alarm bells"
8:57:
-
Form replies to me:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Form
Heh... well the last time I tried voting in the same direction as you, I botched it completely and went in the opposite direction. I'm also not sure I trust you, though you've been off my radar almost completely toDay. That being said, I'm amenable to voting Alona.
I'm not sure, though, that Alona's death would she more light than Sally's. Obviously, if one is a wolf and the other isn't, then the one who is a wolf is a much better catch, but if we can't tell that now--and I think we can't--then on the chance they could equally be wolves, each death would give us an entirely different set of possible related suspects.
So... if you're more suspicious of Alona, then go for her, but if you're equally suspicious, I'm not sure what the point would be. (And yes, I do see that in the quoted text you say you're "perhaps still more suspicious of [ Alona ]," but that's pretty weak preference. Can you talk yourself into a flat-out preference?)
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8:57:
-
Sally: "I'm worried about
Nienna recently because I think the no-vote was a bit of a cop out. Sure, her main suspect has left but there's gotta be someone else she feels suspicious of by now."
Another case of mistaken identity, this time
Nienna and
Nessa. Would
Sally fake this sort of thing? She's tricksy enough, but I don't think that's what's happening here.
9:06:
- Rikae: "As I see it,
Alona's death will shed light on
Sally,
Autume and
Lommy, while
Sally's would really only reflect on
Alona. Plus, the
Alona-saving issue was the main source of my
Sally-suspicion, anyway."
9:07:
-
Sally claims to suspect both
Morm and
Alona (along with
Nessa).
9:08:
- In response to
Alona's "This
Form suspicion has seemed to come not from nowhere, but definitely almost as a sidetrack from me and
Sally.",
Nerwen says "Right, so... we'll get back to lynching you and
Sally then... if that makes you happy?"
9:12:
-
Form asks me what I think a
Morm-wagon would reveal.
9:16:
- I tell
Form I don't suspect
Morm.
9:18:
-
Sally tells me to look at
Autume's analysis for reasons behind
Morm-wagon.
9:21:
- I tell
Sally I don't see anything suspicious there.
9:28:
-
Form says: "I agree with
tum's reasoning to an extent--assuming that my version of how that reasoning goes is accurate. Basically, it runs thus: "Here are
Morm's posts, here's what he says in a nutshell... and then out of the blue he has a serious suspicion of
Formendacil, denounces him as the Bear, and votes thusly."
Insofar as I know I'm not the Bear, this puts me on edge, but the more objective case against him is in the out-of-the-blueness with which
Morm's suspicion of me appears. As far as that goes, it looks quite odd indeed."
9:31:
-
Morm retracts vote for
Form, suspects others (including
Alona) more. (Didn't notice before, but
Morm retracts his
Form-vote when suspected).
9:35:
-
Mac makes a list: "best suspect I have, but I feel foggy about her, if you know what I mean." and "
morm - probably innocent, but you never know."
9:41:
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Form
Probably going to vote Alona at this point, though I'm willing to contribute to a Sally-waggon if we want the second-most votes (in case of tying or last-minute flurries) to belong to someone else suspicious seeming. If the Alona-defence returns last minute again, I'd be willing to settle for a Sally kill.
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9:43:
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Heck, if anything I'll be switching to Alona. Morm's just at the top of my list.
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Sally's talk about switching to
Alona isn't very convincing, I'd say.
-
Nienna "getting bear vibes" off
Morm, for discussing bear and for locking
Hakon vote.
Weak reasons, looks suspicious.
9:50:
-
Autume votes for
Morm.
9:52:
-
Rikae switches from
Sally to
Alona.
9:54:
-
Mira says
Form talked about the bear more than
Morm.
10:03:
-
Form votes
Alona.
-
Mac votes
Alona.
10:35:
-
Nienna votes for
Morm ("he is the most suspicious to me right now")
10:42:
-
Morm votes
Alona, asks why people expect him. (That still amuses me, sorry
Morm!)
10:52:
-
Durelin votes for
Alona.
10:54:
-
Nerwen votes for
Morm. "
I can't claim that I really know what I'm doing here, though..."
10:55:
-
Mira votes for
Morm.
"Unfortunately I was going to say the same thing
Nerwen did. Voting for someone else who I find suspicious at this point would be a throw-away."
Conclusions:
So,
Morm and
Rikae, and to some extent,
Mac, get the
Alona-wagon rolling, and
Form climbs into it along the way
. Durelin voted
Alona on day 2 as well, and was breaking tie then - ties
Alona with
Morm yesterDay.
Sally and
Autume really responsible for getting
Mormwagon rolling.
Nienna makes one post about "bear vibes" late in day, then joins in.
Mira and
Nerwen jump in at the last minute.
Durelin looks very unwolfish.
Lommy looks unwolfish for the natural, sort of uneven way her suspicions develop over the course of the day, but something about her is perhaps... bearish?
If wolfishness were candy,
Sally would be an atomic fireball. Even if she's just a cobbler, we don't need a cobbler cobbling around in the endgame and self-voting or something.
Autume looks
evil, but seems less likely to be a wolf along with
Sally (wolf and cobbler combo, I think).
Nessa and
Nienna are lurkish and non-committal and both good bets for the third wolf - especially
Nessa.
Mira might
just be too busy - although still a possible wolf.
I disagree with those who say two wolves wouldn't no-vote together. Why shouldn't they? Newbie wolves might not know better, and experienced or more careful wolves would realize that everyone would
decide "two wolves wouldn't do that" anyway.
Nienna could be more ursine than canine, actually. Her
Morm-voting reasons, though, are quite weak - and would a bear forego a chance to lynch a wolf in favor of a trumped-up case on an ordo (assuming
Nienna
also thought
Alona was wolfish)? Maybe. Looking too innocent would make her a likely wolf-kill, after all.
Right now I'm most likely to vote for
Autume or
Sally.