[Rikae]

I thought this might be useful, at least to me:

The Alona and Morm wagons and the interaction between the two:

(Going back to Day 2 for a moment, Durelin put Alona ahead of Inzil, Sally says she thought she was
breaking a tie between them but actually re-tied Inzil with Alona, and Lommy voted Inzil at the same time,
saying Alona should be grateful - so there's a point in favor of Durie and against Sally and Lommy off the bat).

Day 3:

11:28 pm:
-Rikae calls Sally and Autume's (meaning Sally and Lommy's) retractions to save Alona suspicious (for them and
for Alona).

11:29pm:
-Morm says Alona looks suspicious based on her voting record, wonders if Rikae and Alona are wolves together.

-Sally begins defending vote retraction with "I x'd with Alona, and if you'll notice I felt dumb afterward because I didn't realize she'd retracted. And as I had said before, I was planning to break the tie if necessary."

11:30

- Morm agrees with Rikae's post about Alona and her rescuers.

11:31

- Morm asks Sally why she felt the need to "do that", presumably, save Alona.

11:32

- Sally says Rikae is too eager to suspect her (Sally).

- Alona says she had no idea anyone was going to try and save her, doesn't understand Lommy's "grateful" comment.

11:33

- Sally follows Rikae's mistake in thinking Autume, not Lommy, was the other to try and save Alona. Worth noting, less likely Sally/Lommy or Sally/Autume are last two wolves (could always be cobbler/wolf).
Tells Morm she already suspects him, "don't make it worse" - presumably he's making it worse by questioning the vote-retractors.

11:36

- Sally elaborates on the above with "Saying that I am suspicious for trying to break a tie (albeit in the wrong way, and I still hate myself for it) when I said I was going to do it ages before is horribly suspicious. I completely understand."

11:39

- Sally says she suspects Morm for grasping at straws.

11:43

- Sally: "I just think that coming out and saying "Hey, such and such is suspicious because they did exactly what they said they were going to do" is a bit silly. And really, you'll notice that I wanted to kill Morm, so I would think he wouldn't be complaining. Just sayin'. (Although when I finish with Brinn I intend to analyze Alona because I think she looks darn suspicious right now. YesterDay I didn't have a chance to look at her much and by the time I did it was too late."
(I find the implication that Morm should stay quiet about suspicions of Sally our of gratitude very weird).

11:46

- Rikae notes her mix up of Autume and Lommy.

11:50

- Form logs in and says this about Alona (among other, non-Alona talk):

Originally Posted by Form

I was more expecting, though, to wake up and find someone like Alona gone--someone making more noise, and generally more suspicious.

Speaking of Alona, her Day-End antics yesterDay definitely bear some investigation, and she definitely seemed jumpy, but it was quite weird--I was around until 10 minutes before the deadline yesterday, and although she'd accrued a lot of suspicion, I was rather surprised with I got on after and caught myself to find that she'd jumped into the tie-line and been saved by a couple bells. The whole Day-End situation is rather tangled and might well include some furry creatures.

11:51

- Alona tries to cast some suspicion on Durelin, or at least questions Durelin, for her vote post.

11:59

- Autume says: "if sally were really trying to help alona why didn't she vote for Inzil instead?" - So, Autume defending Sally on erroneous grounds.
Also says: "With that said, I think that we also need to be taking a look at alona. Obviously her vote to try and save herself makes sense. What doesn't make sense is the vote by Lommy to save her. I can't say that I've gotten any bad vibes from her at this point. I'll have to take a closer look at her toDay and see if I see anything."

12:10 am:

- Form says "Alona seems less jumpy--coached overnight by packmates?" and "Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm."

12:41:

- Mac says Alona's suspicious, but not probably a wolf with Sally and Lommy. (I'm not quite sure where he gets this conclusion).

1:02:

- Alona explains to Mac why she waited until the last minute (newbie nerves, she says). Says she is wary of autume and can't read Form.

7:38:

- Nessa makes the following statement, not really Alona or Morm-related, but I find it really weird and disturbing so I include it here:

Originally Posted by Nessa

Ah, what a mess. I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them.

And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.

Not sure what to make of it, want to see if anyone does... it has a very detached look I don't like.

8:33:

- Autume says: "As for the last minute voting yesterDay. It really makes sense for alona to save herself." and "morm has raised some of my flags. At some point in time today I'm going to have to go back and analyze morm."
(Where did she get the idea Alona was considered suspicious for saving herself?)

9:00:

- Lommy explains her vote (Alona was neutral in her book, Inzil slightly suspicious) and says she finds Alona's smiley use suspicious.

10:01:

- Alona answers Lommy, saying she'll stop using so many smilies if it bothers her.

10:33:

- Rikae further questions Alona about Sally and Lommy saving her, and says: "I think the trio of Sally/autume/Alona just has to contain at least one wolf - I have a feeling knowing one of their roles would help sort out the others."

11:18:

- Morm says: "I agree that at least one of those 3 (Sally/autume/Alona) are wolves, if not 2 or 3 of them."

12:45:

- Rikae posts list with Alona, Sally and Autume most suspicious, Morm as "leaning innocent".

1:45 pm:

- Durelin says: "Sally, Nessa, Nienna, Mira, Lommy, alona, autume...so many to lynch, so little time...I guess I need to pick a few favorites."

1:59:

- Alona says: "So why all the scrutiny on me for the last-minute retractions? It wouldn't have made a difference whether or not it was me or Dun (is that the nickname we decided on?) who was lynched, the village would still be down an ordo toDay." (Somehow this reaction makes me all the more suspicious Lommy or Sally is eeeevil...).

2:14:

- I didn't notice this before - Durelin says to Nessa: "If you're the cobbler you should be louder and less worried about lynching a wolf." ... um, why do you say that, Durie?
Also says: "alona and autume - Jumpy, defensive, while agreeable, and highlighting new-ness. Let's see some backbone! They're probably lowest on my list if only maybe because I have no background with them." and "Rikae and Morm - I've been agreeing with them quite a bit, and am starting to feel uneasy about it."

(leaving out my long debate with Sally over her retraction-post, my Sally vote)

2:25:

- Sally analyzes Brinn, finds things she thinks could point to Morm-bear killing Brinn, but concludes "Brinn didn't say much, and her (granted mostly random) votes were both for Morm. I think Morm's not that transparent, but it could either be a setup from the bear or Morm could assume that we'd think that highly of him and use it against us."

2:41:

- Lommy tells Alona her smilies aren't annoying, just suspicious. Will think I'm innocent if one of Sally/Alona/Autume guilty, want to lynch me if they're not.

2:52:

- Lommy: "As for Sally's speculation - I can honestly see morm as a bear and doing that. But I'm still more inclined to consider Form a bear."

3:45:
- Lommy lists Morm as "leaning innocent" and Alona as "slightly suspicious"

3:46:
- Autume says "I really feel like alona and sally are innocent. alona's retraction makes sense. She thought she had to save herself. I think sally made a mistake. I can see why you might suspect her, but she's not acting like wolf-sally.

I haven't had time to analyze morm yet. However with what sally said earlier I suspect him even more."

5:41:

- Mac says: "Alona's defense in 838 doesn't convince me much.

Both Alona and morm think my Nerwen-comment is interesting, but neither contributed anything to it, so I'm taking their agreemen with suspicion."

6:00:

Alona's list:

Originally Posted by Alona

Durelin - what I posted earlier still stands - why did she vote based only on the three way tie?
morm - I had a hunch about him yesterDay, but was surprised to see that other people voted for him, too. I think I stated it was just a hunch. I'm less certain of his being evil after re-reading through Day 2, however.
autume - People think she's being chummy, I think it's just being nice. We're turning out to have a similar style so far. Still keeping an eye out, as she could be a newbie wolf, but that's less than a hunch right now.
Sally - I honestly believe it was just a mistake, though her attempt to explain it all out has created quite some confusion and, consequently, some suspicion from me.
Nerwen - unsure, but keeping an eye on her
Lommy - Grateful comment still bugs me, but other than that, I don't have a whole lot of suspicion for her at this point

7:13:

- Alona says: "This Form suspicion has seemed to come not from nowhere, but definitely almost as a sidetrack from me and Sally. It's confusing and is inadvertently adding to my suspicion of Sally. I think I'm gonna go back and do another read-through of Day 2..."

7:16:

- Sally analyzes Shasta, concludes:

Originally Posted by Sally

So really, there's not a lot here either. He suspects (or at least did yesterDay) Mira and thinks Form's shifty as well. He also hasn't left any sort of trace regarding other people; it's almost like he's trying to avoid commenting on the big issues that have been discussed in the game. It might be because he's busy, so I don't really want to lynch him toDay, but I'll be keeping an eye on him.

7:18:

- Nienna defends Sally, asks me to define creepy (actually, I find the question itself... creepy).

7:26:

- Alona no-votes.

7:33:

- Autume thanks Sally for Shasta analysis. "Thanks for the Shasta analysis sally. Definitely someone I want to keep an eye on, but I don't see anything to lynch him today. Like you said there's not a lot to go on."
Weirdish, wolf-to-cobbler-thanks-for-pointing-out-rangerish? Have to take another look.

7:43:

- Nessa makes a list, which includes:
"Alona-I just get this... Feeling from her. Like sort of a wolfish feel."
(what a thing for a wolf to say about a companion in danger - doesn't add fuel to the case, but (she probably hopes) will make her look innocent if the other dies...

"Morm-I am very impressed with. Puts himself out there, but kind of gray, rather than black or white, in terms of role."

8:11:

- Nessa no-votes, saying: "Well, I have no idea where my vote should go. It would be Alona, but I'll be sleeping at deadline, and I am loathe to vote someone who has no chance to defend themselves. Sooo....."

8:31:

- Form says: "Nessa's No-Vote is less damning than Alona's"

8:34:

- Sally votes Morm, saying he's more suspicious than the other people she's looked at toDay (Shasta and Form). Which reminds me, she basically ignored Alona, except to defend her own Alona-saving-vote-switching. That is, until:

8:35:

- Sally: "Oh, and my mind/vote is able to be changed. I'm looking at Nienna in a bit, and Alona if I feel like it."

8:37:

- Autume analyzes Morm, or rather summerizes, offering almost no opinions of her own until the end where she concludes Morm is "still suspicious".

8:42:

- Rikae analyzes Lommy, concludes: "60% innocent. Will look considerably more guilty if Alona or Morm turns out to be a wolf."

8:48:

- Rikae says: "Hmm, considering switching my vote to alona, if there is support for it... perhaps still more suspicious than Sally, and her role might shed light on some others."

8:51:

- Sally replies: "I still think Morm's a good choice for toDay, though I see your point about gleaning more from Alona's death. *shrugs* Can we kill them both?"

- Form says: "I've got Morm pushing my buttons and Alona ringing alarm bells"

8:57:

- Form replies to me:

Originally Posted by Form

Heh... well the last time I tried voting in the same direction as you, I botched it completely and went in the opposite direction. I'm also not sure I trust you, though you've been off my radar almost completely toDay. That being said, I'm amenable to voting Alona.

I'm not sure, though, that Alona's death would she more light than Sally's. Obviously, if one is a wolf and the other isn't, then the one who is a wolf is a much better catch, but if we can't tell that now--and I think we can't--then on the chance they could equally be wolves, each death would give us an entirely different set of possible related suspects.

So... if you're more suspicious of Alona, then go for her, but if you're equally suspicious, I'm not sure what the point would be. (And yes, I do see that in the quoted text you say you're "perhaps still more suspicious of [ Alona ]," but that's pretty weak preference. Can you talk yourself into a flat-out preference?)

8:57:

- Sally: "I'm worried about Nienna recently because I think the no-vote was a bit of a cop out. Sure, her main suspect has left but there's gotta be someone else she feels suspicious of by now."
Another case of mistaken identity, this time Nienna and Nessa. Would Sally fake this sort of thing? She's tricksy enough, but I don't think that's what's happening here.

9:06:

- Rikae: "As I see it, Alona's death will shed light on Sally, Autume and Lommy, while Sally's would really only reflect on Alona. Plus, the Alona-saving issue was the main source of my Sally-suspicion, anyway."

9:07:

- Sally claims to suspect both Morm and Alona (along with Nessa).

9:08:

- In response to Alona's "This Form suspicion has seemed to come not from nowhere, but definitely almost as a sidetrack from me and Sally.", Nerwen says "Right, so... we'll get back to lynching you and Sally then... if that makes you happy?"

9:12:

- Form asks me what I think a Morm-wagon would reveal.

9:16:

- I tell Form I don't suspect Morm.

9:18:

- Sally tells me to look at Autume's analysis for reasons behind Morm-wagon.

9:21:

- I tell Sally I don't see anything suspicious there.

9:28:

- Form says: "I agree with tum's reasoning to an extent--assuming that my version of how that reasoning goes is accurate. Basically, it runs thus: "Here are Morm's posts, here's what he says in a nutshell... and then out of the blue he has a serious suspicion of Formendacil, denounces him as the Bear, and votes thusly."

Insofar as I know I'm not the Bear, this puts me on edge, but the more objective case against him is in the out-of-the-blueness with which Morm's suspicion of me appears. As far as that goes, it looks quite odd indeed."

9:31:

- Morm retracts vote for Form, suspects others (including Alona) more. (Didn't notice before, but Morm retracts his Form-vote when suspected).

9:35:

- Mac makes a list: "best suspect I have, but I feel foggy about her, if you know what I mean." and "morm - probably innocent, but you never know."

9:41:

-

Originally Posted by Form

Probably going to vote Alona at this point, though I'm willing to contribute to a Sally-waggon if we want the second-most votes (in case of tying or last-minute flurries) to belong to someone else suspicious seeming. If the Alona-defence returns last minute again, I'd be willing to settle for a Sally kill.

9:43:

-

Originally Posted by Sally

Heck, if anything I'll be switching to Alona. Morm's just at the top of my list.

Sally's talk about switching to Alona isn't very convincing, I'd say.

- Nienna "getting bear vibes" off Morm, for discussing bear and for locking Hakon vote.
Weak reasons, looks suspicious.

9:50:

- Autume votes for Morm.

9:52:

- Rikae switches from Sally to Alona.

9:54:

- Mira says Form talked about the bear more than Morm.

10:03:

- Form votes Alona.

- Mac votes Alona.

10:35:

- Nienna votes for Morm ("he is the most suspicious to me right now")

10:42:

- Morm votes Alona, asks why people expect him. (That still amuses me, sorry Morm!)

10:52:

- Durelin votes for Alona.

10:54:

- Nerwen votes for Morm. "
I can't claim that I really know what I'm doing here, though..."

10:55:

- Mira votes for Morm.
"Unfortunately I was going to say the same thing Nerwen did. Voting for someone else who I find suspicious at this point would be a throw-away."


Conclusions:

So, Morm and Rikae, and to some extent, Mac, get the Alona-wagon rolling, and Form climbs into it along the way. Durelin voted Alona on day 2 as well, and was breaking tie then - ties Alona with Morm yesterDay.
Sally and Autume really responsible for getting Mormwagon rolling. Nienna makes one post about "bear vibes" late in day, then joins in. Mira and Nerwen jump in at the last minute.

Durelin looks very unwolfish. Lommy looks unwolfish for the natural, sort of uneven way her suspicions develop over the course of the day, but something about her is perhaps... bearish?
If wolfishness were candy, Sally would be an atomic fireball. Even if she's just a cobbler, we don't need a cobbler cobbling around in the endgame and self-voting or something. Autume looks
evil, but seems less likely to be a wolf along with Sally (wolf and cobbler combo, I think). Nessa and Nienna are lurkish and non-committal and both good bets for the third wolf - especially Nessa. Mira might
just be too busy - although still a possible wolf.
I disagree with those who say two wolves wouldn't no-vote together. Why shouldn't they? Newbie wolves might not know better, and experienced or more careful wolves would realize that everyone would
decide "two wolves wouldn't do that" anyway.
Nienna could be more ursine than canine, actually. Her Morm-voting reasons, though, are quite weak - and would a bear forego a chance to lynch a wolf in favor of a trumped-up case on an ordo (assuming Nienna
also thought Alona was wolfish)? Maybe. Looking too innocent would make her a likely wolf-kill, after all.

Right now I'm most likely to vote for Autume or Sally.