[Lalaith]

This is very difficult. But I turn for inspiration to a very great detective, who declared that “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". I said I would analyse the evidence, and here it is.
Day one –
Nogrod – is busy – there’s a lot of posts to go through. Wants to kill the careful and quiet ones. But then is worried about Shasta for being too busy. Note - this is odd. “likes” Inzil but nonetheless has a bit of a to and fro with him. Later complains about the talk being unproductive and there not being any suspicions, but doesn’t give up any suspects himself at this stage. Then he says he has been suspecting Rikae and Fea, but Boro challenges him on this and asks where. I can’t see it either. Gives a summary where he calls Fea ‘creepy’ but still feels positive about Inzil. Looks at this point like his biggest suspect is Nessa but then he likes her response so seems to backtrack. Does not vote until after McCaber’s reveal when he naturally goes for Fea.
Rikae – comes in and does her drunken rum thing. Mentions Shasta, Steve (who he?) and Pitchwife. Inzil picks up on something she says about chainsaws, but it’s all a bit random. That is the one thing we hear from her on Day One – she does not vote. Nogrod later calls this an underwhelming performance and I agree.

Day 2
Nogrod is busy again! He says he was ‘right’ about Fea. Hmm....I’m not sure that the suspicions he voiced on day one amounted to a categorical accusation. Isn’t quite as confident about McCaber as I would have liked, but he does say that McCaber should at some point give up his innocent dream...his reason however is that we might otherwise lynch them by accident. (He doesn’t mention the fact that it is useful to have a trusted innocent to listen to). Speculates about Boro’s vote for Inzil. This is an interesting point and could be taken either way. Also there is his analysis of Inzil’s vote, which (in retrospect) seems risky speculation if Inzil is a fellow wolf. But...he analyses all of us pretty closely and it would look odd if he didn’t do the same for Inzil. Interestingly, at this point he is much less happy about my Day One vote than he later seems to be. He then goes for Shasta, and tells everyone to talk...
He comes back to decide that McCaber, Inzil, myself are least suspicious and that he will also wait for Rikae and Nerwen to participate more. Then talks about the remaining four suspects and appears to be hovering towards Nessa again, or maybe Shasta. He defends Pitchwife, four minutes before deadline, but also Inzil. Then seems to get upset by the way voting is going (not sure why?) and goes for Shasta. It’s hard to read all this because so many posts are bunched together, but I suppose one interpretation is that a wolf-Nog could not suddenly vote for Pitchwife without having voiced suspicions. His vote for Shasta could be an acceptable ‘third way’ to save Inzil. Or there is the innocent interpretation, that he simply suspected Shasta.
Rikae – she comes in to say that she mistrusts Pitchwife, Eonwe and Nogrod. Her appearance is welcomed by Inzil. She then says she’s surprised that no-one has gone over yesterday’s votes (although in fact Nogrod has already done so). She concludes that Nessa, Eonwe, Pitchwife and myself are suspicious. She doesn’t find the non-voters suspicious but this may be a joke. She is herself a non-voter again.

Day 3
At this point there are no known wolves to analyse interaction with.
Nogs spends a long time looking through McCaber’s posts, trying to find an innocent. He fails to do so. He then goes over the votes, in less detail than the previous day, and includes his own. “choosing Shasta for Inzil because the latter would be playing” – that doesn’t make much sense actually. Narrows his list down to Nessa, Eonwe and autume, exonerating Rikae because he wants her to participate more. He seems to be drawing the same conclusions I did about Eonwe, but less firmly. He worries about a mix-up of mine about voting times. Later, he defends himself for defending Inzil, and has the same suspect list as Rikae – Autume and Eonwe. Then he gets worried about Nessa, having earlier said that she should be left alone. Then two people vote for her (Nessa) making it a draw. Nogs decides to leave it as a three-way lynch.
Rikae – insists that she would be ‘ashamed’ to win as the kind of wolf she would have been in this game. Is now participating more, analyses everyone, (although she never produces her promised Day 2 analysis) messes around a bit and comes down to the same suspect list as Nogrod. What happened to her earlier suspicions of Nogrod himself? Narrows things down to Autume and Eonwe, tosses a coin and votes for Eonwe.

Well, I found that very time-consuming and annoyingly not all that helpful for me to make up my mind. I can see why I trusted you both. On the surface, it would seem that Nogs has slightly more points in his favour than Rikae. But I am still inclined to think about Rikae’s failure to participate in the early days as a very strong point in her favour. And I just don’t like that triple-lynch.
So, back to today...
Day four – we are three. Both Nogs and Rikae are very vocal – arguing with each other - both are scaring me.
Rikae declares right away that she is almost certainly going to vote for Nogrod. However she is clearly contemplating the option of me being the guilty one too. This is a point in her favour because I had already indicated I was more likely to vote for Nogrod than Rikae...so if she was the wolf then she could probably risk just going for Nogs right away and I would follow suit. It looks like she is genuinely looking for the truth.
Nogrod is going from one to the other. If he is the wolf he is of course in the tricksy position of trying to persuade Rikae to vote for me, while also trying to keep me on side, so that I will vote for Rikae rather than him. Of course, if he is innocent then this could also work, he is genuinely searching for the guilty one.
This is not a situation I have ever been in before. I feel like I am tying myself up in knots, trying so hard to be fair. There is evidence, and there is instinct. From what I know of you both, the Nogrod of this Cottage could be a wolf, but the Rikae of this Cottage is a much more unlikely wolf.

I have spent much too long on this and have made myself late for Other Things. I will return later.