[William Cloud Hicklin]

I can't agree with such a 'deterministic' interpretation of Tolkien's universe. The datum that ultimately good will prevail is merely an endpoint, not a prescribed path thereto. It's rather like a Bach tocatta- you know where it'll wind up, but you have no idea how or when it'll get there (and there are constant surprises on the way.)

Pitchwife is on the right track, I think. There are no guarantees short of the Great End. The Quest could have failed, and Gandalf the White makes clear that failure is always a possibility. Frodo gets the Divine Nudge only because he has pushed himself to the absolute end of his physical and moral endurance, and brought the Ring to the brink. But it didn't have to happen. He could have remained silent at the Council and not taken on the Quest- and then what? There have been many choices in Arda's history which made things worse, which fueled rather than diminished evil: Feanor's choices, the later Numenorean kings' choices culminating in Ar-Pharazon, Isildur's refusal to destroy the Ring. Even smaller choices, such as Earnur's pride leading him to death at Minas Morgul and the end of the royal line.

How many need not have died had Saruman not gone bad? How many had he repented at Orthanc? And ultimately hopeless as the War of the Jewels ultimately was, how much worse was it made by the dreadful Oath and the Kinslaying?