The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post

Kath · 05-30-2009, 05:31 AM

I think my earlier numbers there are completely wrong.

Good guys (by tally) = 6.

Bad guys = 2 (wolves).

Known innocent is 2 (Eomer and Lari) - 6 (unknown).

So if the Hunter revealed it becomes 3 - 5 (unknown).

I'm discounting myself so it becomes 3 (known innocent) - 4 (unknown).

Thus a 3/4 chance of lynching a bad guy and a 1/2 chance of lynching a wolf.

Ah ok I think I just had it back to front before. This seems to make more sense.

05-30-2009, 05:31 AM	#813
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	I think my earlier numbers there are completely wrong. Good guys (by tally) = 6. Bad guys = 2 (wolves). Known innocent is 2 (Eomer and Lari) - 6 (unknown). So if the Hunter revealed it becomes 3 - 5 (unknown). I'm discounting myself so it becomes 3 (known innocent) - 4 (unknown). Thus a 3/4 chance of lynching a bad guy and a 1/2 chance of lynching a wolf. Ah ok I think I just had it back to front before. This seems to make more sense. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”