[JeffF.]

I have long been bothered by the low strength of the Men of Dale and the Dwarves of Erebor in fact I revised their estimated strength upwards a couple of times. One of the statements that has been important in affecting these was one by Gandalf in Unfinished Tales, going back over the sources of my notes I found that I made a mistake in this particular citation. Gandalf did not say that Sauron used more than half his strength in attacking Minas Tirith rather he said he used more than half his strength attacking Gondor. This simple change has drastic effect on the estimates of the Easterlings who attack Dale & Erebor and the strength of Dol Guldor who attacks Lorien three times and Thranduil once. These upward revisions of estimates for their enemies also cause an upward revision of the strength of the Men of Dale, Dwarves of Erebor and Elves of Greenwood (though still had to account for the limits of the force sheltering within Erebor). Gimli's statement in FotR that some Dwarves (like Balin) felt they had the strength and numbers to return to Moria and another in UT that Thorin's dwarves were increased by the wandering people of Durin's Folk give weight to increasing the Dwarves estimate. It is likely that Dwarves of other houses besides the Firebeards and Broadbeams also joined the Kingdom Under the Mountain (as the Firebeards and Broadbeams did with the Longbeards in Khazud Dum after the destruction of Nogrod and Belegost attracted by the wealth and vigor of Dain's kingdom. As for Dale the Hobbit states that there were many settlements of men south of Laketown (Esgaroth) and these would have come under the dominion of Dale (the logical borders being River Running and River Redwater).

I revise my estimates: Dwarves: Kingdom Under the Mountain 3000, Iron Hills 1500 (vassals of the Kingdom but separate). Kingdom of Dale 3000 infantry, 1000 cavalry (with half located outside the environs of the City of Dale mostly from Laketown down the River Running). Thranduil's Army 4000 archers and spearmen and Lorien's Army 4500. These odds still account for the initial loss, the retreat of (most) of Dale's Army and Erebor's into the Mountain and the later sortie that defeats the Easterlings once they are removed from Sauron's will.

The Easterlings attacking Erebor/Dale/Iron Hills I estimate at around 15000 infantry and 1500 cavalry. The Orcs and Trolls of Dol Guldor (reinforced by those from Moria) I keep at the upper end of my previous estimate at 10000 with a few hundred trolls (these attacks on Lorien and Thranduil were so decisively beaten/wiped out that they could not have had much of an advantage in numbers. I still take Gandalf's statement that the enemy has few horsemen as canon. Though the forces attacking in the North were not near half of Sauron's initial force as a soldier I think Sauron would recognize that the attacks on Minas Tirith and Gondor were his 'Main Effort' (to use a modern military term) and would have allotted his forces accordingly (and all these initial hosts were aside from the 60-65000 he used to face the Captains of the West at the Black Gate).