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Old 04-17-2009, 02:01 AM   #444
Nogrod
Flame of the Ainulindalė
 
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
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Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.
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Here's the current player-list with the number of bonus-votes left.

Brinniel (10)
Fea (6)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (8)
Kent (5)
Kuruharan (6)
Lari (10)
Nilp (7)
Nogrod (5)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Why is this such an urgent thing to do? We're now on 10-3 but as Kuru is here only for this Day the numbers will be 7-3 toMorrow if we miss toDay (unless Finrod succeeds of course).

Now Thuringwethil can kill someone who still has ten votes on the Night to come and suck the votes to herself giving her twenty extra votes toMorrow. The wolves - having 10 extra each - add up another twenty. Grima possibly having ten extra as well, s/he can just wait and see how the baddies start voting and join the fray. They have together 50 extra votes! That reads fifty! 50!

And those 50 votes are available for them to use against the remaining maximum votes of six innocents - the total number of our votes being 37 at the moment - not counting the possible extras we need to use already toDay...

So toMorrow they lynch whomever they wish and kill one the next Night leading us into 5-3 on Day5 and openly defeat us under the bright sunlight. (Yeah, they too may need to use some of their extra-votes toMorrow to drive the lynch but even one of us ordos not voting in line with others eases their task considerably)

But that's why they would love to keep their full bonus-vote stack yet toDay. And that's why we need to either empty their pockets or lynch one of them toDay.

Well if one of the baddies has already used a few of her/his bonus votes? That's perfectly possible but I wouldn't count on that as a common guideline, at least toDay. And I could bet quite a lot that at least two of them are still fully armed - I'm afraid they all are - so let's dig them out.
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