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Just for completeness' sake, I had forgotten some other details JDR brings up for the 'Beleriandic' nature of the (early) Hobbit geography: the first version of the Lonely Mountain map ("Fimbulfami's Map") shows the "Wild Wood" to the north-northwest of the mountain, with the Withered Heath beyond. And in the next map of the series, the Grey Mountains - Iron Hills chain describes a convex arc that immediately call to mind the Iron Mountains.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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