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Let's assume we didn't get a new duck at some point, or that if we did, it doesn't matter. Otherwise, there are simply too many options to get anywhere.
I think I will decide between Lari and Nerwen, because I simply think that Durelin is innocent.
Nerwen
The votes: didn't vote on Day1, gave a late meaningless vote for Lommy, gave a crucial vote to Nienna, gave the second vote to Rikae.
Nerwen makes sense in her posts, when she isn't posting in character. Doesn't say anything that makes you wonder. Complains about being confused a bit too much, but also helps to bring light into the dark. Problem: she knows how give an innocent-looking impression.
She avoids clear statements of who she thinks is guilty. That's what I find suspicious.
Lari
The votes: gave an early vote for Durelin on Day1, which doesn't tell us anything, gave a late vote for Gwath on Day2, which could have been a desperate attempt to save Lommy, gave a late vote to Mith, which is hard to figure out, gave a late vote to Durelin, which again makes you wonder.
Doesn't explain her votes, which could be a requirement. Has been too silent lately in general. Hard to get any grasp on.
Kath has been after Lari a long time and tried to scapegoat her for Wilwa and Nienna's sake. It could have been a plan to sacrifice one duck to save two, though. However, Kath kept her three known fellows consistently safely in her innocent lists - why make an exception for Lari only?
Wilwa liked neither very much, while she talked positively about Kath and Nienna.
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