Sally, you're forgetting a couple things:
If we lynch
Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will *still* be half evil toMorrow.
Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly
Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil.
Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history).
Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, *don't* mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.