The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:33 PM

Sally, you're forgetting a couple things:

If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will *still* be half evil toMorrow.

Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly

Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil.

Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history).

Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, *don't* mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

02-27-2009, 09:33 PM	#865
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Sally, you're forgetting a couple things: If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will still be half evil toMorrow. Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil. Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history). Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, don't mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.