[Brinniel]

Lucky for us, she left plenty of clues...

Day 1

She made only one post with a random vote, but she did leave a few thoughts. In fact, it was this quote that made me suspect she was not an ordo:

Originally Posted by Kath

Hmm, but I suppose I should add some thoughts in even though there's nothing to go on, otherwise I'll be leaving myself very open for a Night 1 death.

And her thoughts:

Originally Posted by Kath

Mnemo - ducks have been proven to be evil in the past, I'll go with that!
Sally - oh definitely evil.
phantom - clearly a pawn trying to get to the other side of the board by making himself look important.
Izzy - erm, fiery depths? Not keen!
Brinn - I think innocent, therefore guilty.
Eomer - definitely innocent, at least for as long as it takes to see what this new persona is about.
Nerwen - thoughtful.

Kind of hard to tell considering most thoughts were made in a joking manner.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Kath

Mnemo - old thoughts on phantom and Fea, pretty pointless post. Fair points on the werebear/werewolf debate. Ah more confusion, but she made a good point through it. Yeah same thoughts on Hansy. I'm intrigued that she thinks Nog is being 'ridiculously' helpful, it's an odd comment. Defends herself - 'if I were something I'd be being far more careful' seems to be the gist of it. Votes Eonwe. Bit random, and a little leaping on the bandwagon-esque, not sure about this.

sally - again a pretty obvious first post. 'Let's get the baddies.' Not keen on her voting reasons. Fea for bad vibes whereas Nerwen for an actual reaction, yet she sticks with Fea.

phantom - silly list with himself, Mnemo and sally as bad guys and Durelin as a good guy. Just as ridiculous as my list I'd say! Defends Fea. Says the werewolves aren't really scary this time round for himself, though I think they are for the white team in general because of the sheer number of possible kills. Interesting thoughts about the Black roles - will they try to work together or work against each other. I don't think we can have any idea yet but it's interesting to see the theories. Good comments on whether it's more worth having pawns dreamt of and Gifted's revealing, I think he's actually probably right though with so many Gifted's there is a lot of leeway for false reveals leading to Days spent trying to figure out who is who. Votes Gwath in order to save Fea, despite in the previous post saying that for once he'd be alright with letting her go. Looks like old friendships got the better of him.

Durelin - votes sally due to a 'gut-feeling'. Hope we get more from her toDay as that isn't a random vote as advertised.

Izzy - says we should only focus on the roles we do know about rather than speculate about the ones we don't. I can see her point but it's often in the discussion that you begin to see role clues. Ooh interesting point about Mnemo there. Sticks to her guns and votes Gwath.

Brinn - complaint about chatter (though it was amusing ), then first bit of serious commenting even if it was obvious. But then someone's got to state it. Sees my point about the possibility for fake reveals. List post seems to say suspicious of Fea, Gwath, Eonwe and Mnemo. Reasons for all. Vote Gwath, pretty consistent.

Eomer - somewhat cryptic, mostly unhelpful. Says I deliberately voted for the only person who had said anything sensible. Wrong but interesting. Says he will be looking out for patterns on Day 2. The wolves know he's a dangerous player and with so little said Day 1 it makes him a sensible kill. Votes sally for saying nothing and then saying something that by the time she said it was pointless - I agree actually.

Nerwen - wonders whether sally or phantom might have been making a confession through the banter. As she was killed by the wolves I think it's unlikely. This was most probably an attempt to start some real discussion. Same thoughts as most about Hansy, interesting ones about Rikae especially given that Nog spoke for her only a post or two before. As for me, unfortunately Kath votes like that on a fairly regular basis whether good or evil because somehow Day 1's seem not to register.

Hansy - sort of introduction post. Interesting role question, not sure where she/he (?) is coming from with it. Will the black pawn turn into a white pawn if dreamt of by the black bishop. Tis somewhat like what I thought the White Queen might do but it's an odd question from a newbie. Or does she/he mean they will be seen as an innocent rather than the cobbler? Could do with some clarification there. Interesting thoughts about the werebear though again I'm not quite sure. 'Hired gun' for the innocents? Even if the werebear was revealed they would surely not work for the side of good, and indeed the wolves would surely kill them off. You know she/he has some really interesting thoughts resulting from all this role confusion but I do with she/he had just read the rules! Ah! Hansy is male, I shall now remember this. Defends himself ... but not well. Votes Fea - admits it's retaliation. I don't like it.

Eonwe - given what he's said on the admin thread I'm going to leave him be til we know whether he's still playing or not.

wilwa - hmm, also mentions the 'confessions' thing. Obviously no one trusts someone who 'reveals' anymore! Some interesting thoughts about the roles, especially what the White Queen might actually be. Says she is likely to bandwagon because she doesn't know players - odd comment. Suspicion of Brinn, Gwath and Eonwe with some reasoning and votes Eonwe because she didn't want to add a new person to the vote possibilities. I don't know, it's seems likely a perfectly sensible vote but, you know, it is a bandwagon at this point and she had said she was going to join one. Without the earlier comment this wouldn't have pinged at all but as it is I'm not sure.

Nog - 'even a joke should have some meaning' he quotes, yet this post doesn't. Clears up the role confusion pretty well I think. Same point I thought of with the discussion leading to potential slips thing. Worried about Mnemo, sally and Brinn but mostly me. Hopefully I've explained what he was worrying about. Some good points about Hansy. Usual 'why oh why can't they post more often' comments. I agree with him about wilwa being odd though. Doesn't like all the random votes that aren't actually random. Despite the fact that he thought I was doing the same thing I am inclined to agree with him in some cases. Very non-commital in his big post. The only person he seems to have any sure thoughts about is Rikae (innocent), everyone else is 'could be evil, might not be'. Complete turnaround on Rikae. Do you know this makes me think she actually could be a wolf. Nog, with all the love in the world, can be as utterly wrong as any of us and for the only person he is 'sure' of to suddenly look suspicious and for him to change his opinion of his own accord makes him look good and her look bad. Votes Fea but I don't think it's good reasoning, she only mentioned her theory because she decided that he wasn't the Seer, otherwise she wouldn't have said a thing. He is taking a very different line on the Fea thing, which does seem to have divided everyone, but he's got some good reasoning behind it even if I disagree. I hadn't even considered that she might be the Cobbler but then I'm looking at the original comment differently I think.

Fea - defends phantom. Oh Fea noticed that werebear thing from Hansy as well. Votes Hansy, I can see why. He/she seemed to know so much to start with and then suddenly gets so many things mixed up, it's tempting to think it's an act.

Rikae - interesting role thoughts. The White Queen could well be multigifted. I wondered at the beginning whether she might be something like that DW characters in that she might be able to 'turn' a black piece into a white one but then I think it would unbalance the game. Voiced some early suspicion of Nerwen and is as cross with Nog for focusing on the same old things as I generally am. I'm not sure why the suspicion of Nerwen unless it was based wholly on a previous game though. Argues with Hansy and mentions Eomer's distate for Day 1. Says she may vote for Nerwen for what she said before, Izzy or Eonwe. Not a huge amount of reasoning but alright for Day 1, though I'd have liked more detail about Nerwen. Votes Eonwe, the only person in her list for whom she had not explained her reasoning. Would definitely like to know what that was about.

Gwath - spoke to Mith, pointed out Mnemo's Who reference. Makes no sense. We should focus on neither the wolves nor the bear? That's going to help. Good point about wilwa. Votes Fea, because of what Nog said, which I think was wrong anyway. I do wish we could see more of his own thoughts. The poor guy does get lynched early so often but, and again without wanting to sound harsh, it does seem to be entirely his own fault. Actually is working from a really funny angle as regards Fea because the bit he is quoting is after the fact, she's outing her theory, she's saying she's wrong and that's what he picks up on not the previous hint - yep, can definitely see why he died.

Mirandir - wants Fea lynched. Well thus far she's not said a lot but I'm sure a few posts further in I'll be agreeing! Says he won't vote newbies, fair enough.

Lari - good role thoughts, I think that yes the Black Queen would die even if she killed the Hunter because the Hunter takes down whoever they've picked if they die. I agree with her about what would happen if anyone tried to 'blackmail' the Black Queen. List post: ends up with Fea, Nog and Rikae looking suspicious. Didn't quite follow her reasoning about Nog but possible wolf collaboration between Fea and Rikae is an interesting idea. Votes Nog, ah and now I understand the earlier comment. Well, she'll have a field day with this if she thinks analysis = guilty!

Bleurgh that got long. So, from this I'd say (ignoring those who died):

Possibly guilty - for all of them because I didn't like the vote mostly, either because it didn't seem to follow on or wasn't explained well:
Mnemo
sally
Hansy
wilwa
Rikae

Possibly not - for the first three because of their consistency:
Izzy
Brinn
Lari
phantom - he's too laid back, too not involved to be something important.

No idea - mostly would simply like to hear more from them:
Mirandir
Fea
Nog
Eonwe
Durelin

Originally Posted by Kath

Mnemo - first post makes me feel better about her. Good point about Eomer and about sally. I believe it is the former when it comes to phantom and Nog, two egotistical innocents battering each other.

sally - I certainly don't think it's odd that phantom voted to save Fea, he thought she was innocent, don't know about Brinn. Now do know about Brinn, think this is still odd.

Fea - fair explanation.

Mirandir - says she would have voted Gwath to save Fea, useful to know, would be nice to know why she wanted to save Fea.

Brinn - ah Brinn being pessimistic, now that makes me feel good about her! Fair points on the kills and her follow-through on sally is interesting. Odd comment at the end though, saying that actually Fea and Eonwe dropped off her suspicion list yesterDay though they aren't off the hook. If they're not baddies then how can they be on the hook?

Rikae - interesting that she figured Nerwen out, no one else seems to have had any idea. She's a bold enough wolf to come out and say it. That said I agree with her about Fea. Hmm I can see her points about Izzy. Actually I really can, from what I recall about Izzy in past games she has been really good at coming up with original ideas and posting well and this game she hasn't done much of that.

Lari - suspicion of Hansy for what he said about Fea.

wilwa - good point about Mirandir though she did explain it. To be honest this list post is like Nog's yesterday, no real opinions just 'could be this, not sure, will keep an eye open'. Except Mnemo, whom she seems pretty certain of. Votes Mnemo - well it's consistent.

Nog - interesting thoughts about how to find the werebear, though of course that says nothing about role as both sides want rid of them. Not sure the White Queen would have an extra kill, if she got it wrong and we had three kills a Night ... that's a lot of deaths. Hmm, with the letters. I think K stands for King, Shasta is the mod and therefore the king, then d is going to stand for pawn, why it's not a p I don't know, and that then Q is queen and B is, well bishop I gues but wolves in general. The numbers though I think are random. Fea did answer the question you know. Still, he's decided she's the Cobbler and will thus leave her be and so I see no point in spending time debating that with him. I disagree with him about phantom. phantom believes Fea is innocent. If Fea turns out not to be innocent then and only then will phantom follow Nog. Seems clear. Aww Nog you still hate me because I always seem to have RL reasons Day 1? You know I always make up for it. Fair point about sally. Votes Izzy which is interesting as, while I agree with the reasoning, I don't think he'd mentioned her a lot before.

Hansy - says he would have voted for sally. Thinks Nog is evil. I disagree, I think Nog got the different end of a stick. The whole thing between him and Gwath smacked of two innocent fighting it out to me.

Durelin - interesting point about Brinn, will look at that. Have looked, no she said Gwath and Fea were both on her suspicion list so either way she voted it would have been consistent.

So from that:

Possibly guilty:
sally - don't like her reasoning yesterDay or toDay.
Izzy - for what I said above.
Rikae - because I think she could be an incredibly bold wolf.
Hansy - still not keen.

Possibly not:
Fea - yeah I'm still not convinced about the Black Pawn thing.
phantom - again too uninvolved to be anything.
wilwa - that consistency has just made me happier about her.
Nog - he's a misguided innocent, he has to be. Any argument like the one between him and phantom has to be innocent on innocent.
Mnemo - I'm much happier about her toDay.

No idea:
Mirandir - want to see more from her, a lot more.
Durelin - would like more of an explanation about Brinn.
Brinn - want an answer to that question before she goes in a list.
Lari - I'm just not getting anything here.
Eonwe - as I said, leaving him alone.

From these I'm going to guess that phantom was the Night 1 dream, as he's the only one who consistently remains on the innocent list as she analyses both Days. Nogrod looks to be her second dream. Notice how he switches from "no idea" on her Day 1 analysis to definitely innocent after Day 2. Her confidence in Noggie's innocence is one reason I did suspect she may be the seer. And again note how she mentions the phantom/Nogrod argument MUST be innocent on innocent (and not ordo on ordo). Hence:

Night 1 dream: phantom
Night 2 dream: Nogrod

Day 3

Originally Posted by Kath

Having been relatively happy about Mnemo and less so about sally yesterDay I find that my opinions have pretty much reversed themselves after toDay's posts. Mnemo all but yelling at phantom to stop talking about possible White Queen abilities was just very, very odd. There is almost no chance that he's going to get the answer right, we're going to have to wait until either a reveal or the final narration to get the answers to that, so it's interesting and it gets discussion going and it makes people take a really close look at the voting records but it isn't dangerous to the White Queen because quite honestly if phantom had figured out what the role actually was I don't believe he'd say it out loud.

sally on the other hand I think is making sense. She is having a good think about WQ possibilities and generally feels good to me. wilwa's vote for her I can sort of follow, there is logic behind it even if I disagree with it, whereas Eonwe's strikes me as a little odd. It's sort of come out of the blue from a little PS into full blown suspicion.

I'm not going to do a full analysis of everyone toDay. I'm simply too tired for it. I will hang around though and stick my nose in on occasion.

Originally Posted by Kath

Oh, because it's come up a couple of times I should mention, my reasoning for voting Izzy wasn't a regurgitation of Nog's reasoning. In fact if it was a repeat of anyone's suspicions it was Rikae's - it was what she said about Izzy that made me take a second look.

Originally Posted by Kath

phantom, sally - quit it, or we'll end up with another fight on our hands like yesterDay.

I don't like either of the voting options so far toDay. phantom I still think has no role, like I said he's far too laid back. sally is as jumpy as ... something very jumpy (leave me alone it's 2 in the morning!) and all her hinting is nonsense. Either she's figured out who has a role and is trying in some perverse way to protect them or she's the Cobbler, either way we're better off leaving her alone. Mnemo you said the Cobbler is dangerous at the end - sure, but we won't get to the end with three wolves and a bear alive!

Anyway, those two are out of the voting picture for me. The three who are in it are Mnemo because of what I said earlier, Hansy because I still think there's a bit of a put-upon newbie act there and Izzy for the same reasons as yesterDay, although her posts today have looked a little better.

I'd actually be happy voting either Mnemo or Hansy, but I'd rather vote the one I have more chance of gaining followers for because I don't want to see phantom or sally lynched toDay. Looking at what sally and Rikae have said it seems I'm more likely to get support for:

++HANSY

She obviously didn't dream of Izzy or Mnemo or she wouldn't have voted Hansy. So Sally looks to be her Night 3 dream as she mention that her suspicion of her has reversed. Also, this quote: "phantom, sally - quit it, or we'll end up with another fight on our hands like yesterDay" seems like she is hinting towards the innocent on innocent fight she mentioned yesterDay.

In conclusion, the dreams are most likely:

Night 1: phantom
Night 2: Nogrod
Night 3: Sally

Of course there's the possibility that either phantom or Sally are the Black Pawn, but at least I think it's safe to assume that neither of them are the Black Queen, Knight, or Bishop.