[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but we are in fact witnesses to moments when Saruman "lied more": merely the fact that the Hobbits were eventually taken to Isengard is one of these proofs. Saruman just managed to do that several times (and why not, he was really good in that). And Sauron was not maybe naive in all senses of the word, but he was known for miscalculating his enemies' intentions.

Sauron only had difficulty to predict his enemies' schemes based on fool's hope = estel, but was quite good at deciphering the logical ones.

With Saruman he was at a disagvantage: Saruman likely had some suspicions as to the ultimate goal of the Quest - destruction of the Ring, while Sauron had none. Sauron likely saw the first move of the Felowship as relocation of the Ring from Rivendell to the closely guarded Lorien: from Elrond to Galadriel. But I doubt Sauron expected the Ring to leave Lorien and go South. He was caught at unawares by the happenings upon the Anduin, IMO. But I will have to reread the RC Scheme again...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yep, but do not forget that they would never disobey Sauron. And if he said "search the Vales", so they did, even if they knew there is nothing to find.

And surprisingly enough they got a wigging from Sauron for being obedient. Or was it for being slow?

BTW, Legate, I am quite curious how do you envision those "Messengers from Barad-Dur" conveying threats from Sauron to the nazgul? (a rather unsafe thing to do). Were they Orcs? Men? Birds? Or perhaps the Mouth himself had to go?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I don't think he was flying over the western bank. It says that it was coming from the south (thus, unspecified riverbank) and fell down on the eastern one.

But it swerved almost above the fellowship.

Suddenly the great bow of Lórien sang. Shrill went the arrow from the elven-string. Frodo looked up. Almost above him the winged shape swerved.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Indeed, it was supposed to ferry the Orcs - or rather, the captives - but these were really special circumstances (the Ring was in play here, and how to get it fast to safety!), and the Nazgul most likely just landed on the western riverbank, unloaded its cargo and flew back - and all that at night. They would not dare to go further, or even dwell on the western side for long. (Not thinking about the fact that poor Nazgul pilot must have been pretty sick from flying over the water anyway.)

Forty times there and back again across the Great River. Hmm... Poor hydrophobic nazgul!