[satansaloser2005]

....first because they have the least posts and are thus the easiest. Unfortunately I can't promise a post-by-post analysis of everyone because I usually find that tedious. Besides, everyone else is doing them. I like being different.


Well, I have little time today to even read the thread properly, but there is no direct need for that, since I already know exactly where this game is going just by glancing at the player list:

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Cailín’s frustration will slowly rise as the phantom and Feanor of the Peredhil talk in riddles and special sign language that no one else really understands, but at least Sally and Boromir88 will pretend they do. This will lead to much dramatic arias on her part, but somehow she cannot help listening to their advice until Day 4, when - in a rebellious fit - she will turn on these self-proclaimed leaders of the theatre and try to get the phantom lynched, who will still be alive by some cruel twist of fate. This will be successful (naturally), but the phantom turns out to be just another ordinary Singer and TGWBS, whom she claimed she’d trust till the end of times, will proceed to kill everyone with merciless reviews in cave-man grammar.

It is also clear that I shall win this competition. Great range is all well and good, but being two-gendered is well… operatic! Still, best eliminate:

++NOGROD

Because the extent of his indecisiveness could lead to problems later on.

I suggest you keep me alive, because I predict my mental breakdown is truly going to be something tragic. Good to be with you all.

Essentially joking, fine by me. Votes for Noggie, who at the time had no votes and wasn't in danger of lynch at the time, but could have been a lead for the other baddies, or of course an attempt to start a bandwagon in general. It seems like a rather random (excessively random, rather) vote to me, which is confirmed in their next post.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Good day, my pretties.

I am truly sorry about what happened to Nogrod and wish I had not voted for him. I already regretted it when I pressed that fatal Submit Reply button, but I was afraid to invoke the Mother Mod Goddess' wrath by retracting and casting another random vote. It was a foolish decision, especially since I still need to ask him a favour. My manly half was not please with the executive decision either.

(Eomer: "Kill Sally, she deserves it")

That's the longest I ever spent apologising for a vote (to Nogrod, not necessarily to my fellow contestants whom I care somewhat less about). This means I'm sincere.

Our Opera Ghost's reputation is apparently so divine that he actually became so. Interesting decision.

The most sensible person today seems to be Brinniel. I agree with her comments on the Menel-wagon. I'm sad he had to leave us, a great voice and marvellous talent.

Allow me to translate. "Oh, I knew Nog was innocent but I had to lynch him anyway. (Cailin, not Eomer. Eomer was unhappy with her decision, she says.) Oh, and kill Sally, by the way. No reason, it'd just make Eomer happy. Okay, I'm done apologizing about Nog now. Phantom's cool. I agree with Brinn about Menel's death being a mistake."

So where are her actual statements? They're italicized. Well, it's italicized, because there's only one thought that isn't a one-off, by the way sort of theory or accusation. This concerns me.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

People.... Day 2 and 9 pages of chatter... I had forgotten how garrulous you all are.

I am pretty much convinced Gollum is innocent and hope a more suitable lynching candidate shall be found. Instead, I am becoming wary of Sally, whose voting behaviour is suspicious (yes, I did think the last minute doubts were odd) and her response to accusations and remarks directed her way is just... Well, she has always been a remarkably fluffy player, of course.

Can I also ask what the point of Ilya's astounding collection of quotations is?

As for the many other players, be assured that I am watching you. In a non-phantom, but actually having the power of a vote-way.

"Randomness. Gollum shouldn't be lynched, let's find someone else. Oooo, how about Sally? Her voting is suspicious, especially when she tried to rectify the double lynch situation. And she doesn't ever say anything concrete, so she must be evil. Ilya, why the heck did you post a bunch of quotes? Trying to look helpful? It's not working. Bugger this. I'm watching the lot of you."

Okay, so still on the "Lynch Sally" train. Fine by me, as at least now they gave (sort of) an explanation for why they suspect me. But why isn't Gollum suspicious? Tell us your opinion instead of just saying "do this, do that, make the happy couple happier". I do agree about Ilya's post, but this is kind of a moot point now as she's dead. Meh. I've got my eye on you two too.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Do we have seven villains? That was one of the craziest things I've ever seen in Werewolf.

Well, Eomer here. Apparently I am playing today because a certain someone is busy and important.

I had just said to Cailín last night that, while the village won't be too happy with our lack of contribution, at least they wouldn't kill us on the off-chance that we're a submarine Critic - not when there's this whole Fea and Aganzir situation. A case to answer, and all that. It would be mad. I'm sure *censored for Mith's sanity* would agree.

I suppose we need to assess that 7 in a row and decide who the players and the pawns are. I think our critics are staring us right in the face.

I'm assuming they're kidding about analyzing our contingency of *censored for Mith's sanity* voters. Mainly because they never did. Also, it seems to me like they (well, he in this case, but still....) are happy to remain quiet and watch the Fea and Agan fireworks show. Pretty much a "oh, goodie, I can get away with my sneaky semi-silence a bit longer).

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

I think Eomer once again managed to confirm the extent of our natural innocence.

Nothing but excellent play from the Netherlands.

Random bit of fluff. Yay.

Originally Posted by Eomer/Cailin

I hate you all so much.

Another bit of fluffy fluff. Always a fun choice.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly. If Fea is guilty, the reasonable thing to do is to lynch Aganzir the day after. If Miss Peredhil is not guilty (which pretty much everyone agrees is not very likely), we shall still be nervous about Aganzir till the end of our days. Let's clean this mess and catch up on those critics.

++Aganzir

Not to say that her Mac analysis was not spectacularly elaborate. If there is considerable opposition to a double-lynch, I would naturally rather hear Fea's final aria.

"Kill Fea and Agan. Both. Now. I'll help." Pretty straightforward. No matter what happens, she wants to see Agan die. Now the thing is that they could know that Agan was innocent if they were a critic, but there's only one way that they could know about Agan being a soulmate (I'll get to the significance in a minute) and that's if they are Walter. *dramatic music* Obviously Fea is already doomed by this point so the natural baddie course of action is to try to take someone (read, an innocent) down with her, particularly one who will unleash another innocent to kill....well, another innocent, most likely when their lover/soulmate is Joseph Bouquet'd by the mob. I'd give it a pretty good bet that we may have just found our Walter.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.

Gollum is innocent. Sally is evil.

This shall be my epitaph.

Well, the leaving a trace is sort of true, as their suspicions are never really explained. Why is Gollum innocent? Why is Sally evil? Even so much as a "I have a bad feeling about them, a bad vibe" would be better than a consistent "I know what these two people are, let's save/kill them (respectively)".

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Let me restate my reasons for my Agan vote:

I trust TGWBS would not leave us with ambiguous hints or information. This means that either he did not know any critics / cobblers by his time of death and just thought of Fea and Aganzir as the most suspicious characters, or he happened to peg two sinister characters in two nights. Rereading his posts, I can see why there are many around who are unwilling to risk assuming the second - Wild Guy seems uncertain and especially on Day 1 he acts unconvinced of Fea's guilt.

However, if Fea is guilty, I do not think we can risk it to keep Aganzir alive. Of course, Guy may not have dreamt of either, and his categorisation could have been just a reasonable and astute guess. Fea's guilt would not prove Aganzir's guilt, and Fea's innocence would only imply that TGWBS did not dream of any evil persons. In that case only can I see Aganzir survive another day, yet she would still be eligible for lynching in the future (her voting record is not very favourable, either). Perhaps that is enough for most to shrink away from a double-lynch. In my opinion, we have little to lose from it: the ordinary, yet talented singers get to kill two highly suspicious characters, while the critics can only eliminate one potential-gifted or innocent.

I can envision scenarios in which the double-lynch would turn against the village. However, I am feeling bold and reckless.

I think TGWBS dreamt Fea. I don't think TGWBS dreamt Fea. I think Fea's evil. I'm not sure if Fea's evil. But either way, Agan's a critic. Interesting too, that they refer to Agan as a potential gifted, yet later (I'll get there in a minute) they say they say they had no idea Agan could be a gifted. Backtracking? Perhaps. And again, I don't mind if they go after me with no reason (I'm innocent, not gifted, so I'm dispensable as per usual) but if they are in fact Walter and did in fact spy on Agan, they would (assumedly) know that she was a soulmate (or at the very least, that she was innocent, and they're bright enough to have between them picked up the connection between Agan and Bowie) so as I've said before, all the more reason to get rid of Agan.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Cross-posted with Fea's ambiguous retraction and suicidal vote. I'm not going to judge her motives, because we shall find out soon enough. It does not necessarily make me feel better about either girl.

"Not going to talk about Fea, but this still makes Agan look suspicious." Bwah? I'm just saying. That they're not. Saying anything, that is.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

That was unexpected.

Boromir seemed to think Aganzir was gifted, yesterday, but then she denied it. Well, I am glad that we do not have to waste another lynching opportunity - I was quite disappointed that Fea and Aganzir were not killed in one blow, but now it is evident that TGWBS did not dream of both after all and we can maybe find a known innocent in his posts (though I doubt it will be obvious enough for us to fully trust such a hint).

I will have a look through some of the previous posts now that we have some more information, though I'll leave analysing Fea's contributions to someone less prone to frustration.

"Oh wait, let's not kill Agan now, she's a gifted." Aka, crap, my plan is foiled. Also says it is now time to look through TGWBS' posts to find a known innocent, but doubts we will find one clearly defined. Says they will look through posts, but not Fea's, as they don't want to get frustrated.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

I am not so sure about Boromir.

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour... Everyone knows that had she not been the soulmate, the village would have been obliged to lynch Aganzir, simply because the Seer's legacy is the closest thing to evidence a village can have.

Perhaps this is due to personal experiences: every time another villager has defended me in the past, especially when I was Gifted, it turned out this seemingly helpful person was a wolf (I remember an occasion with our lovely TGWBS and me wasting my Ranger powers defending his lycantropic skin every night) and we are all so easily won.

I have no intention to take the phantom's proposed leap of faith here.

So now Boro's evil because he trusts Agan? Okay, good to know you think so. Now I understand the logic behind this, but Agan seemed very innocent to me as well and I would have/did argue against her lynching yesterDay. Then again, I'm automatically suspicious to them too, so my opinion shouldn't come into play. BUt they still think that lynching Agan yesterDay would have been a good idea (though they admit that, knowing that Agan was gifted, it would have ended poorly. But if she'd been an ordo it wouldn't have been a loss. Define this, please. Every ordo is a loss, even if it's just in numbers.) Doesn't trust Boro.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Naturally I am disappointed in my critical reading skills that I failed to recognise you as a Gifted, but it is easy to read posts in a certain way in hindsight. You would have been equally opposed to a double-lynch had you been a nasty critic, and even more so were you the Cobbler, of course.

And I am not twisting the truth. I do not necessarily count discussion as very productive in finding critics. Call me crude, but it is the lynching that matters. And we would have lynched you, as you very well know.

People leave traces in discussion, too, you know. Yes, lynches are important, but I often find wolves by their posts, not necessarily just their votes. This, at least to me, makes the lovely couple sound even more evil than before.

Aganzir, I am sorry you fail to see my meaning and the rational, mathematical thought process that informed my decision. Macalaure is obviously on the same page, but I do not trust him either.

Do not let your personal disagreement with me cloud your judgement.

I don't see the thought process behind their vote, in point of fact. They suspect Agan for....some reason, and stick to it throughout, but don't really seem to have a reason. And how is Agan disagreeing? Well, I suppose, being on opposite sides of the game, yes, she is disagreeing. Point taken.



In short, Cailin/Eomer have suspected/'cleared' a handful of people with absolutely NO discussion on most of them, and spotty cases for/against the rest. I think they are a critic, or at the very least (and most probable) they are Walter. And since Walter is greatly aiding the wolves, not just in numbers but in information, I would prefer to get potential Walters out of the way before they pass along any more information.

In even shorter, I want Cailin/Eomer dead. ToDay.


EDIT: x'd, but not really, as I checked for more Cailin/Eomer posts.

EDIT #2: Oh, I did X after all! With Boro.