[Macalaure]

This next post will be grossly generalising and depending on the roles of people who live, but maybe still worth something.

Case 1: Aganzir is a critic - how would the other critics react to the double-lynch idea? They certainly don't want it to happen, but not at all cost. They know one thing: Aganzir will be dead before the end. If we don't lynch her today, we will lynch her tomorrow or once we run out of other suspects. She will under no circumstances make it til the end. Therefore, she is not worth getting yourself into trouble for. The reaction I'm looking for: carefulness, saying that Aganzir is probably evil, maybe even adding points to it, but trying to dissuade from a double-lynch, as sneaky as possible. Sure, they could be against it more openly, or try to make themselves look good by wanting to lynch her, but I've got the feeling that the described way is a good place to find a critic - in this case.

Case 2: Aganzir is not a critic - how would the critics react then? They are for it. Definitely. How strongly? Well, they have the seer to hide behind and they have me as the prime scapegoat if it goes wrong. I'm looking for those who are for it but immediately provide a possible excuse for tomorrow. Of course, they could think that it is dangerous to burn one's fingers in this, but the circumstances are very promising.


And now let us see:

Lari

Doesn't say anything for a very long time. Fea is clearly guilty to her and she leans innocent for Aganzir, which is surprising clear. Guilty Aganzir still points towards her guilt. She votes for Fea, of course.

Boro

Unless you propose a double-lynch today, because whether Fea turns out critic or Walter, it won't change anything regarding Agan, and we'd essentially end up lynching her the next day anyway?

Note that Boro didn't say a word about double-lynching until he himself had a look at Aganzir.

And what if Fea has found the divo or one of the lovers? True, now that the Seer is gone, I think the Cobblers use is coming to an end, and maybe Fea is taking the noose for the critics.

But, a double lynch at this time could be dangerous, we were lucky on Day 1 it was only two ordos. I have no idea about Agan, considering what we have concluded about Fea, it doesn't look good that they were paired together by the seer. But we're talking about two dreams here, one we know was Fea, the other it's still up in there air. I'm not convinced he spotted two baddies in one night.

...

But anyway I hope you get the point, we have an hour and half left before the deadline. I say we take a sure shot with Fea, regroup, recharge, and definitely get more organized tomorrow. Trying a double lynch at this time, I think spells disaster.

The many (likely and unlikely) options he presents look suspicious if Aganzir is a critic. His clear stance against it (which he continues later) makes him look innocent again, because I doubt a companion of Aganzir would try to buy her just one more day that openly.

Gollum

Thoroughly confused while trying to catch up, which looks good for him in either way. Then:

However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?

Might be I'm not entirely objective, but I think he sounds innocent. He later justly criticises Gwath for his post (below).

Brinn

I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet a double lynch on it...especially since we can't even be 100% sure about Fea's guilt.

A guilty Aganzir could point to a guilty Brinniel. What does not fit is her "not 100% sure about Fea". A critic would put more focus on the guilt of Fea to divert people's eyes away from Aganzir, even if Fea is a critic, too.

Fea does look like the more guilty one since tgwbs pursued her more...but if he dreamt of both, maybe he found Fea to be a critic and Aganzir to be the cobbler, which could be why he made Fea his primary target.

This is a good point, that I overlooked before. If tgwbs found Fea to be a cobbler and Aganzir a critic, why didn't he leave Fea be and went after Aganzir more? It could be the roles are in fact switched, it could be both are critics and you can only chase one at a time (usually), it could be tgwbs feared being too obvious and then dead, it could be he feared the cobbler more because she could expose him, it could be his dreams were actually different than I thought...

Kath

Also, a double lynch? I'm not sure that's a brilliant idea. We've already had one double lynch this game and it did us no good.

She is less clear than Boro, but more clear than the following Sally. She votes for Fea.

Sally

She went through tgwbs's posts and said she found the same as everyone. She does not mention Aganzir once. A guilty Aganzir strongly points towards a guilty Sally.

I'm not sure if I'm a fan of the double lynch idea, no matter who it includes.

This fits the scheme, especially with the omission of Aganzir, again.

I'm not going to fight a double lynch, but I'd just like to express my opinion against the idea.

And there's the desired carefulness...

Later she suggests Gollum and Cailineomer as candidates for a double lynch she could go with. She doesn't say why Aganzir is not an option. (Complete omission of her is more than I expected, to be honest.)
She also throws in a very vague suspicion of me that she will not pursue yet.

Gwath makes an excellent point about TGWBS possibly dreaming Agan. I would be amenable to lynching her toDay as well. Which is to say that I'm okay with a Fea lynch OR an Agan lynch, but I don't think we've thought it out enough to risk a double. Besides, I don't think enough people support it for it to be a good idea.

This is funny. I was just about to suggest Gwath and Sally as Aganzir's companions, but Sally taking up Gwath's point against Aganzir, out of all points against Aganzir that were flying around, is surprising.

Gwath

First, I think we are obligated to (at the very very least) seriously consider lynching our seer's most suspected - if only because he was the seer. To do otherwise would be irresponsible, and unfair to the seer.

Regarding Aganzir and Feanor o' the Peredhil: I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious." Given that tgwbs consistently pro-lynching-Fea from Day 1, the fact that he makes a sharp shift in his approach to Aganzir between Day 1 and Day 2 indicates to me that he may have dreamt of her in between, and not Fea. Day 1 he calls her reasonable, Day 2 he calls her "most guilty."

I guess, to conclude, I think Aganzir deserves as much attention as Fea - but I don't think a double lynch is in order - was that Mac that suggested that? That's crazy. Look what happened last time.

Alarm bells be a-ringing. He gives points against Aganzir and Fea but steps away from double-lynching them. After Gollum stepped on his toes:

Well - I guess this is technically true. Maybe I'm just squeamish about taking that kind of risk.

Oh, and I didn't say we kill both Agan and Fea, I just said we should seriously consider doing so. There is, as Aganzir pointed out, the possibility, however slight, that tgwbs did not dream of one or both of them. Maybe he only dreamt of innocents; it's possible.

Alarm bells be a-ringing more. He relativises his opinion instantly once challenged.
He then votes for Aganzir which is surprising, but could be explained by nervousness after Gollum's call.

Cailineomer

I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly.

While I was looking for auto-excuses, this is surprisingly blunt.


So there.

Case 1:
Gwathagor (very suspicious)
Sally
Kath
Brinn
Lari
Boro (only a little suspicious)

Case 2:
Cailineomer
Gollum (both only a little suspicious)


I did this mostly because Aganzir was starting to convince me. Her replies showed just the right amount of defense, offense, outrage, and helpfulness. I would like to believe you Aganzir, really, but pretty much all evidence is against you (though Brinn's points are valid ones). The only thing that could really dissuade me is probably Fea's unlikely innocence.

Originally Posted by Boro

Don't get greedy.

But it's fun to!