[Gordis]

Thank you for the answers, Ibrin and Inziladun.

I have many eyes in my service, and I believe you know where this precious thing now lies. Is it not so? Or why do the Nine ask for the Shire, and what is your business there?

Strange - I think that this quote proves just the opposite - that Saruman finally guessed (rightly) that the Ring was in the Shire and Gandalf knew about it all along. In UT we learn that Saruman even thought back to a far-away council when they had had a disagreement over smoking and concluded that Gandalf was duping him all along:

Gandalf did not laugh again; and he did not answer, but looking keenly at Saruman he drew on his pipe and sent out a great ring of smoke with many smaller rings that followed it. Then he put up his hand, as if to grasp them, and they vanished. With that he got up and left Saruman without another word; but Saruman stood for some time silent, and his face was dark with doubt and displeasure.
This story appears in half a dozen different manuscripts, and in one of them it is said that Saruman was suspicious, doubting whether he read rightly the purport of Gandalf's gesture with the rings of smoke (above all whether it showed any connexion between the Halflings and the great matter of the Rings of Power, unlikely though that might seem); and doubting that one so great could concern himself with such a people as the Halflings for their own sake merely. -"The Hunt for the Ring."

Of course, he had no exact address where to seek for the Ring - but the nazgul did well without the exact address either. After all, Saruman had spies and "business associates" in the Shire, he had been there himself. He could ask questions and hope to be answered far more readily than any nazgul.

In fact, he could go to the Shire either impersonating Gandalf (Saruman in TT was able to appear quite similar to Gandalf), or as Saruman the White, Gandalf's boss who replaced him in the hour of need: "I am sorry for bearing bad news, Frodo, but our dear friend Gandalf got eaten by wargs / captured by Sauron / drowned in the Anduin. I come in his stead, o worthy hobbit, to help you with your burden. The Nine are hunting for you. Trust me - I will take you to safety." Even Aragorn might have bought this story, let alone Frodo!


Imprisoning Gandalf was a smart move. But it had to have a follow-up: Saruman had to go to the Shire himself. I think he didn't do it partly because of the reasons given by Ibrin, partly because he wasn't sure of the address, but mostly because he didn't have enough guts for a wannabe Dark Lord.

Sauron, for instance, knew how to risk his life when the prize was big enough: he stayed long among the Noldor of Eregion, his old enemies, he went to Numenor as a prisoner. Saruman, in contrast, was essentially a coward.