[the phantom]

That's a great break-down, Nog.

If I'm remembering correctly, ever since my idea to get Gil killed was shot down, I was looking for an opportunity to shoot someone else up into the lynch spot. And I believe I already had Agan in mind, for I had her listed as my most innocent person on the list I made well before Boro ever made his comment.

Additionally, I had in the back of my mind that I wanted both myself, you, and Boro to survive to the next day (that was the reason behind my Boro-Nog war comment). Thus when I saw Boro's PS, a door opened to both set up Agan for the kill and say something threatening to Boro (making it more likely that the two of us would survive the Night).

And then later I once again threaten to start a loudmouth war between the two of you (once again, trying to keep the two of you safe during the Night).

So, that is the chess match from my vantage point. Does that help at all?