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Old 09-25-2008, 12:23 PM   #717
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Something to analyze at last.

We're four people now. One of them is a known innocent. One of them is the ranger. (The two might be identical, of course.)

If we lynch the wolf today, we win (of course).
If we lynch the ranger today, the game is over and we lost.
If we lynch an ordo, then we have a chance for another day.


Why did the wolf kill Mith?
Out of all non-known villagers, she was the most innocent-looking, so if the wolf wanted to get rid of one who was unlikely to attract a vote while presuming that Shasta was protected, she was the logical pick.

Why would Boro have killed Mith?
Mith was very unlikely to vote for Boro today, so I would have guessed that Borowolf would like to keep her around and then bandwaggon on her vote to have a good shot at securing victory. If he wanted to get rid of an assumed innocent, he would probably have gone for me.

Why would Izzy have killed Mith?
She could have killed Boro, but he makes too good a scapegoat at this point.
She could have killed me, but Mith suspected her more yesterday than I did.


I still don't have a good feeling with Izzy, but let's be serious for a minute: If Boro is the wolf he'd be the most madly bluffing wolf there has ever been in this game, and he would fully deserve to win.

So, yeah, I will probably vote Izzy today, but of course there's still many hours to go til then, so I'll wait with my vote to see what's going to happen in the meantime.

Last edited by Macalaure; 09-25-2008 at 12:23 PM. Reason: crossed with Boro
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