[Aganzir]

On day 1 Rikae accuses Kitanna of her vote (which, I agree, was suspicious), but ends up voting for Nerwen herself. I wonder indeed what made her vote for her over her top suspects - the only thing she had posted between Rikae's list and vote was an "I'm back" post (since Rikae xed with her other post). However Rikae's vote tied Mith and Nerwen, both wolves, and I don't know what to make of that. Was Mith or Rikae the one turned on night 3, or had the wolves agreed on suspecting one another? Well, all of us alive suspected Nerwen at some point, and also Boro the wolf was all for voting her on day 2.

Rikae was one of the main contributors in EW's lynching. A perfect case - suspect someone from the beginning, but vote for him also because of being unhepful. That's a sure way to start a bandwagon, against an innocent in this case.

On day 4 Rikae found both Boro and Mith innocent. Other than that, she doesn't speak about them too much.

Originally Posted by Rikae in Shastanalysis

IC. “Nerwen is mostly harmless.... some of us aren't harmless at all.”

Now, it's a minor thing, but somehow the latter addition, knowing Nerwen was a wolf, seems just slightly more likely to come from someone who knew this.

And then she calls my seizing on a single word or phrasing forced?

I think people have got so used to wolf-on-wolf votes that it just makes sense that Rikae said she won't vote for Mith (or Shasta either) on day 4. Somehow Rikae has had the ability to start bandwagons in this game, and her Form bandwagon almost saved Mith. She made a post analysing how Mith and Shasta became the main candidates for that day's lynch, and concluded by saying she can't shake off the feeling there's something fishy. So, both defending a fellow wolf and threatening those who suspect her. She found Kit and Nog the most suspicious, and told us not to discount the possibility that Eomer was the cobbler instead of hunter. I don't see a reason why the real hunter should be lying low and watching how the cobbler pretending to be a known innocent has everybody trusting him. Besides then the cobbler would risk the wolves wasting a kill on him, which is not quite what he wants. But what a better way to make people feel they cannot completely trust a known innocent?

Originally Posted by Rikae

That would be because I think I'm onto a wolf too late in the day to do much about it, and expect that two ordos are being framed. *sigh*

And then she accuses people who followed her vote? Looks like a nice wolf tactic - try to save her fellow by appealing to others to vote for Form, and when Mith ends up being lynched accuse the other Form-voters. Rikae has been good at starting bandwagons but not taking responsibility for them; see for example her post the next day:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sorry, Formendacil - I can only assume from the way Aganzir and Shasta followed my vote yesterDay, one (or both) of them is evil and you are innocent. I did find it odd at the time that they were so eager to follow my vote: I only wished to get my suspicions out in the open and vote accordingly, but didn't really feel I'd "made a case", so to speak, to be acted on that day!

She finds me suspicious because of voting for Form and that "little exchange about grinning", and suggests both Shasta and I are wolves. She's also pretty quick to dismiss the possibility that Form was a wolf - maybe it was easier for her to find him innocent after he had started suspecting her?

Originally Posted by Rikae

If Shasta was not a wolf with Aganzir, why would she have voted for Form when she could have saved Mith more easily, and less conspicuously, by voting for Shasta? And why would Shasta prefer to vote for Form to save himself, instead of for Mith?

Seemingly Shasta just preferred to vote for Form. Maybe because he found Mith innocent? And since Shasta was not a wolf, that thing about me doesn't work, either.

Originally Posted by Rikae

her case aganst Kitanna seems rather forced (especially the "myself" bit) and the make a case, vote, and leave pattern is a tactic I've used myself as a cornered wolf - throwing something out there for the village to chew on (she even encourages us to look into it more) and then dropping out of sight and, hopefully, out of mind.

Like I already said, I had to leave because of RL reasons, and I wouldn't lie about it even if I was a wolf. And by the way, I didn't encourage you to look into my Kitanna case more, but people's interactions with Nerwen and Mith, which I believe might have been useful.

Originally Posted by Rikae

She could simply go after him as an easy way to get herself out of danger, and might even do so as a wolf, but it looks as though she's trying to protect her last packmate by drawing suspicion elsewhere, while making wishy-washy statements about him to cover herself, should he be lynched.

Would Rikae have chosen me to be a wolf in DW if she really thought I would be that apparent?

Then she votes for me after Shasta's reveal - based on that grinning thing. By then it's clear Shasta and I can't be fellow wolves, which was one of the reasons for Rikae to suspect us. And quite honestly, if Shasta was a wolf and knew he would be under much pressure, wouldn't it have been useful if he had come out as the ranger in order to reveal the real one? Say Rikae what she will, it takes a coolheaded ranger to not instantly reveal someone's claim a fake.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog, are you saying that Shasta's revelation should let Aganzir off the hook? Because in your last post, if I recall correctly, you suspected her as well

She seems a bit... I don't know what's a good word, upset? that suddenly others don't seem to suspect me anymore. Her vote for me looks like she was trying to start a bandwagon again, and now, all of a sudden, it doesn't look so likely that I will be lynched.

Originally Posted by Rikae, in response to Boro's claim that he protected Kath

Bummer. I was hoping we'd have a known innocent after all.

It looks like she said that because she couldn't come up with anything else but had to say something. Do you really think the wolves would have been so busy elsewhere that they would have forgotten their known innocent?

On day 8 she says Eomer's death makes me look more innocent - no one else is really suspecting me at that point, and I guess she doesn't want me to suspect her because of suspecting me. She also finds Kitanna suspicious, and has a case on Nog, who hasn't been suspected very much. Yes, it's dangerous not to pay attention to someone this late in the game, but yesterday I couldn't shake off the feeling of a wolf trying to get a dangerous player lynched. She had been suspecting me heavily (though with pretty few reasons), and now that it suited her current case, she was buddying up to me, trying to have me vote for Nogrod. She would have preferred to lynch Nogrod or Kitanna, and leave Eönwë (the most inexperienced player, who therefore might be easier to convince than the older ones) and me (who has been pretty wrong about everyone but Nerwen) alive.

And now today she's suspecting me again. Because Kitanna hasn't really suspected me and she knew she would be dead if she couldn't make her feel uncomfortable about me?

edit: xed with four Rikaes