[Rikae]

An hour ago, I thought I'd be too exhausted to participate, so I told Mac to help me out and do a quick Nogrod-analysis (since nobody seems to actually suspect him at all, which is odd). Now that he has finished it, I don't want to waste his effort and would still like to post it. Mac would like to remark that he has a little bit of a history to suspect Nogrod, but he really tried to be objective. He's not sure whether he succeeded, though.

Day One: He doesn’t seem to make any major points on day one, but on the first day, that’s nothing to be worried about. I noticed that he mostly criticised a few votes, which is a little convenient, because people who have voted are unlikely to return. It’s an easy way to go through day one without stepping on the feet of anybody who could step back.

Day Two: As I understand, Nogrod has been short on time up to this point? Anyway, I’m starting to wonder about the lack of real points in his posts. In #224 he gives us some on Kitanna, but that’s already it. I would expect Nogrod to try harder to read sense into the situation. In #168 he defends Nerwen rather vehemently, which raised an eyebrow of mine.

Now it’s getting more interesting, since it’s possible he was only turned into a wolf now (or Mith was just turned into a wolf).

Day Three: #258 is a bit suspicious to me: he makes a quite definite statement about what a wolf would do and, of course, what he did himself so far is unequal to that. He then builds up his suspicion on Mithalwen, which looks genuine at this point. Nothing more to say about this day.

Day Four: On this day his suspicion of Mith is starting to look fishy. He repeats to be certain about Mith several times, without giving any new input. Look at #356 and #359, for example. I’m undecided whether the chat between him and Mith that follows could be “wolf-on-wolf chat” or not. Later, he keeps on suspecting Mith strongly, but look at #408 as an example on how unaggressively he does this, mentioning his top suspect somewhere in the middle among his lesser ones. The way he handles it sounds like “I’m absolutely certain about Mith, but if you want to lynch someone else, oh well”. This really looks wolvish to me, because in hindsight he can claim to always have suspected Mith, but at the same time, he did not do much to actually get Mith lynched.
Another thing I noticed is that, after Eomer revealed, he kept on talking about the possibility of the “real hunter” challenging him. Is it just me, or does this look like a wolf hinting to the cobbler to challenge Eomer? (#378, #432)

Other than that, what he did that day looks quite innocent.

Day Five: He complains about the voting, which is a little fake, since he could have tried to alter the outcome earlier by urging a few people to vote for Mithalwen. I’d say that’s a sensible thing to do if your best suspect is on the verge of being lynched.
When Shasta and Boro came forward, he takes the side of Boromir. But then, many did.

I’m puzzled by how confused Nogrod is about his other suspicions. Is this genuine or a wolf trying to look confused in order to not have to come up with anything? In any case, it’s a bit untypical for him.

Day Six: I’m wondering why people think Nogrod to be so innocent-looking this day. He urges people to give their thoughts on everybody and keep on giving input, but then he fails to do so himself. All day long, he only agrees with what other people (Agan, especially) said. The only person he attacks a little is Eonwe, the least experienced villager left (no offenses here, Eonwe). However, his only real point against him - at this point! - is his DayOne behaviour. #615 is something a wolf would post to appear helpful without giving opinions of his own. I’m really sorry if I’m wrong about this, but, as I felt before, Nogrod doesn’t appear to be really interested in reading sense into the situation.

Day Seven: Continues going after Eonwe and does an analysis of Eomer, leading him to drop prior suspicions of Aganzir. Not much to say.