[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, it has a little bit to do with him. But only because a lot of what I said about the EW was in response to him. I see that a lot of people just breezed by those posts because they didn't want to get involved. So, as I survive another day without being killed or wolf-ified, I'm going to recompile all that I said. Please read it.

Originally Posted by Me

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

Originally Posted by me

The reason the EW may not want the wolves to know her identity is because if the GW scries a werewolf, that wolf imediately changes sides and becomes an ordo. More importantly, an ordo who knows the identity of the EW and can share it with the village. Each wizard wants to protect their own identity sso that they can challenge the other wizard on their own terms, ie. when the conditions are in favor of their respective teams. So the EW is hesitant to the wolves any information.

Originally Posted by me

Every EW will work differently. The EW could have picked someone who was high profile as a smokescreen to hide behind. Look, the second we start ruling people out, those are the people the EW will pick. Trust me on that one- I was there. Let's not make the choice any easier for her. Trying to avoid the GW was only one of concerns, and it was more from the fact that I'd be discovered by him if we scried the same person at the same time. He was theonly one who could stop me, and so he was the only one I feared. That is no longer a problem.

When I was the EW, I picked wolves from all over. I had high profile wolves, I had under-the-radar wolves, I had wolves that I planned to sacrifice. I'm trying to share what I learned from my experience with the village. Never rule anyone out as a potential wolf, and no one except the GW is a known innocent until they're dead.

Originally Posted by me

Also, on the point of the deaths of Volo and Kitanna- it is more likely that they were killed because the EW believed them likely scries by the GW, and she picked correctly for one of them. I hope for the sake of our gifteds that the GW is scattering his choices around abit, and not sticking to players of certain qualities.

Originally Posted by me

You may be right in that the EW would not want to risk it. But I was the EW, and I did risk it. Heck, I was down a wolf (due to the double pick fiasco) and I still did it. So your definite "NO" is definitely not definite.

Also, I don't know why you are so certain that the EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine. The GW did something like that for the entire village, but only after his role had been revealed. In fact, I even encouraged my wolves to lynch as they liked. Someone acts suspiciously? Lynch them! It makes the wolves harder to trace because they aren't having to lie about their suspicions.

Originally Posted by me

That's very nice, it's true. However, there are more options than that available. The EW may be willing to give up that extra kill for one Night in order to act out another more sinister plan. Not all of us think that simply, and it's folly to suggest that the current EW must think that way.

Originally Posted by me

It's about making assumptions about the EW's behavior which have little backing other than your own preference, which the EW may or may not share. So, you can't expect us to rule out this possibility just because you wouldn't do it.

Originally Posted by me

And how do you know what the EW believes is necessary?

Originally Posted by me

Again, why are you so certain of this? What in past history has led you to believe that this is the way the EW will operate? There's no logic or proof behind this theory, ...., and it can be dangerous if everyone assumes it's true if it's not. We could be led on a wild goose chase trying to figure out a supposed short list of lynchees that doesn't really exist.

Originally Posted by me

First, phantom, you're statistics aren't even logical, because you leave out : a. the hunter, b. the ranger, and c. the EW herself, who might change a gifted into an ordo instead of an ordo into a gifted, thus keeping the wolf population down.

Second, those who think losing the seer isn't such a bad thing, consider what would happen if it was Day 4 and the EW knew the GW's identity. She could then challenge and take the GW out before she had a chance to replace the seer, and the village would be in trouble. Who was saying that again?

Originally Posted by me

The EW:

In the last game, I took care to avoid people that might be scried by the GW, not so much because I was worried about losing a wolf (until morm accidentally found me out) but because if we scried the same people on the same Night, my identity would be revealed. That is not the case this game. If the wolf doesn't know anything, then losing him to the GW may not be so bad. However, if the GW and the EW scry the same person in a Night, that person dies. This is a third kill for the evil team! The GW is the one who will be avoiding scrying possible EW picks in order to keep innocents from dying. (Which, by the way, is why I believe the phantom will not be picked by the GW.)

So lose the mentality that the EW won't pick likely GW scries for scrying. It will only mislead you into to looking away from those that could be wolves. Until we know who the EW is, we have no way of knowing who they might have picked. YOU CANNOT RULE ANYONE OUT FOR THE REASON THAT THEY ARE UNLIKELY PICKS. The EW may have very well counted on that thinking. Until we know who the EW is, you must look at everyone with equal possibility.

Edit: cross posted.... Oh my