[Lalaith]

Ok, so it’s the weekend, and I’ve got time to be helpful. I’ve been thinking like a EW for the past hour or so, to try to catch wolves. It’s important to try to get one toDay, because if the wolves go up to five, it’s going to be hard to catch them all before they kill us.

Night one: three wolves, of which I am pretty sure Aganzir was one. (I don’t think she would have been scried because she was too close to being lynched both days) the two remaining wolves are what I refer to in the analysis as ‘original wolves.’
Night two: Wolf 3: we are looking for someone posting as innocent on Day One and as a wolf yesterDay and toDay.
Night three: Wolf 4 who is posting as a wolf for the first time toDay.

here’s the analysis. I include myself for the sake of fairness. My assessments of who would be an unlikely wizard are based on various things: RL situation (busy-ness), their WW experience/profile. It is of course not infallible.

Little Green, Not sure here. Clearly smart, but never played with her before so don’t know her WW profile.
Shastanis Althreduin, Not a particularly likely wizard so not a particularly likely scry, and feels quite innocent today.
Isabellkaya, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Thinlómien, likely wizard, thus likely scry. As I said before, feeling quite worried about her even before this analysis. And what her interaction with Aganzir reminds me of is the Roa/Valier thing last DW, when Valier went after Roa and continued to do so after she was guilty. Perhaps Lommy has been scried, and told to keep going after Aganzir.
Nilpaurion Felagund, confusion over start means unlikely wizard, thus unlikely scry. Could be original wolf
Eönwë, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Kath, I really don’t know about Kath – I never do. The ultimate submarine girl. I’d have wanted her for an original wolf if I was a EW, that’s for sure.
Satansaloser 2005 , could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard (too busy)
Rikae, likely wizard, and very likely scry. Has slipped under radar
the phantom, likely wizard candidate, but very unlikely scry either night – too close to getting lynched
Diamond 18, a likely scry. However, she’s being very helpful today, so I’m inclined to think she’s not evil.
Cailín, I still think that she was innocent on the first day, but I think that although she’s currently protesting busy-ness, she’d definitely be seen as a potential wizard and so a very likely scry
Lhunardawen, Possible wizard, possible scry. But she feels quite innocent right now.
Durelin, She’s felt less guilty to me than she did last time I played with her (when I correctly guessed she was a wolf) but she could have been scried last night.
Roa_Aoife, Now, this is a puzzle. Unlike phantom, she hasn’t been a likely lynch candidate, so she could be someone a wizard would want to scry. Would she be a wizard twice in a row? If she’s innocent, why is she still alive?
Brinniel, likely scry – particularly for Night 3. but again, she’s been helpful all through the game and still seems helpful today, so I’m inclined to think her innocent.
Legate of Amon Lanc, likely wizard candidate, but unlikely scry - too many votes on Day 2 to be Night 3 wolf
Lalaith could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Mormegil, normally I’d say a likely scry because likely wizard, but a wizard Morm would surely be more active so I’m not sure...
Celuien, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Gwathagor, Not sure here. Never played with him before so don’t know his WW profile. But I think his analysis of Cailin today is interesting and knowing her status would provide more info on Gwath.
McCaber, could be ‘original’ wolf, (in fact I suspect him of being so) but unlikely scry as not likely wizard.

So the upshot of this analysis is that there are a whole heap of people who could be original wolves. But if we focus on the new wolves, it gets easier.

I conclude that Cailin, Lommy, Rikae, Roa, Durelin are the most likely candidates for wolves 3 & 4. Little Green is also a possibility.