[Roa_Aoife]

The more I read, worse phantom seems (now that I'm really focusing). Aside from the post where he blatantly insists that looking for werewolves is a fruitless activity, there's more:

Originally Posted by phantom

Shhh... don't pursue that subject any further.

You are right of course that the WWs might have been given certain... erm... directions... I don't want to be too specific here... I'd rather not have people start posting their thoughts on the matter (ie giving examples). It might be better just to watch for it, for mentioning a specific maneuver may cause the WWs not to use it, where as if we'd keep mum they might do it and then we can spot it if you see what I mean.

Here he actively discourages discussions by the villagers while admitting or even elaborating, if you will, on what the EW may have told the wolves. For example, telling a wolf to intentionally mislead the villagers or act in a cobblerish way. Especially if the EW has faith that this particular wolf would be able to bluff his way out of getting lycnhed.

Originally Posted by phantom

First, the EW didn't actually pick his three WWs- he submitted a list of names, and three people off the list were randomly assigned to be WWs.

In addition, the "who" doesn't matter nearly so much as the "how many". If I was the EW I'd take six mediocre WWs over two brilliant ones any day. In other words the EW will simply pick people that he thinks are not likely to be scried or lynched. If he picks well then the game is his.

Sure, on one hand if he scries me then I can make all kinds of devilish suggestions etc, but if I'm a likely lynch/scry target then it isn't worth it.

In this post, phantom tries to make it seem as though the EW's werewolf choice was random, when it isn't. The list of candidates was not that long, and even if there was overlap, it's unlikely that it occured more than once. So, more faulty reasoning. Next, he states that the EW would probably pick safe wolves rather than brilliant ones, which conveniently discludes him as a candidate, a behavior I have always found suspicious. Finally, he admits that he could make devilish suggestions (such as he has been) if picked to be a wolf, but then down plays the idea as too risky. Because we all know that phantom often finds things to be to risky for his flavor. :rollseyes:


In post 91 (which is very long), he changes his story from "We should look for the EW" to:

Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?

In my opinion we're just as likely to lynch a WW gunning for the EW as we are if we were actually trying to lynch a WW. It's not like we have any concrete knowledge to work with. On Day 1 in particular we're just taking a blind shot in the dark. Heck, if we'd purposefully try and lynch the Seer we'd probably have just as good a chance of lynching a WW.

A sudden shift after coming back to find that his previous statement had garnered more suspicion (and a vote). Then he posts some statistics that make seem as though it's better for an innocent to get lynched on Day 1 because it raises our chances of finding a wolf on Day 2.

Then in the same post:

This is the point I'm trying to make on the issue of finding WWs as opposed to finding the EW. If we find the EW early, we probably win. If we don't find the EW, it doesn't matter how many WWs we find, we'll still lose.

His next post says this:

Really? Hmm... don't you actually know Agan? If so then I'd be inclined to trust your opinion of her. Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.

But when the same idea is suggested against his favor, he says this:

N...O.... NO.

Not at that stage of the game.

No way.

The goal for the EW and WWs was to not get any of their team lynched yesterday, for if they were successful it would mean likely getting an extra kill the next night and every night after that.

Day 1 was not the day to pull stunts. Absolutely not.

Then there's posting like this:

But what does Agan think of Lommy?

And what do Rikae and Mac think about each other?

He avoids expressing opinions, but encourages others to look closely at each other, a behavior I have seen in very crafty wolves when they want to turn the village against itself while keeping out of the fray. (Anguiriel did this in my very first game, and phantom is at least as clever as he.)

Suppose that one of our extremely busy members is actually not that busy and has been lying through their teeth on the admin thread this whole time. If that is the case then essentially this game is already over, because we simply will not find them out because of the fact that we have to rule someone out!

After all he's said in favor of finding the EW, here he insinuates that finding the EW is fairly hopeless as well. So, we can't find wolves, and we can't find the EW, according to phantom.

I'm quite certain that he did.

I had already planned to go back over today's events after the day is over and look for this precise behavior. There are a few different ways in which it could manifest itself. But naturally I'm not going to say it now.

Again, why are you so certain of this? What in past history has led you to believe that this is the way the EW will operate? There's no logic or proof behind this theory, it blatantly contradicts what you said earlier about the wolves being impossible to spot, and it can be dangerous if everyone assumes it's true if it's not. We could be led on a wild goose chase trying to figure out a supposed short list of lynchees that doesn't really exist.

Oh, come now Roa. I haven't been unhelpful. All I've done is accurately described the situation we are in, and mixed in a bit of deliberate pessimism. Heh heh- I think you've actually seen me do that before. You didn't like it much then either, did you?

And I'm quite certain you were evil then as well.

But I don't wish to start the lynch mob in your direction either. You're probably not a WW now, but doubtless you will be one later on. I can't imagine the EW could resist recruiting a former EW to his side.

Again, the classic wolf line of "You suspect, but I think you're just a misguided innocent" with some flattery thrown in for good measure.

Post #142- vote count

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to catch one today. Today is one of the only chances we have of actually keeping the WWs from making an extra kill. Once they have four it will be extremely difficult to get them back down to three, so if we can keep them from getting to four tonight that would really help.

But as I pointed out before, our chances of hitting a WW while looking for the EW are probably just as good as hitting a WW while looking for a WW (at least on Day 1), and thus I do not want to lynch anyone today that people agree is not likely to have applied to be the EW.

Here he admits that catch a wolf on Day 1 is best for the village, but he would still rather only lynch possible EW's, since there's likely a wolf among them. The problem with this is that he keeps saying that bold and brilliant players are unlikely picks for wolves, and yet those are the people that apply for being the wizards. (I know, I saw the list from the last game. Phantom was one of the applicants, if I recall correctly.)

Glad to hear it. Really, the things I've been saying all along have a huge amount of truth in them. Perhaps it is uncomfortable to hear, but you cannot pretend that I am showing the situation for anything other than exactly what it is, even if I am doing it in a fatalistic manner. It ought to at least help everyone make sure their priorities are in order.

The bolded portion made me laugh out loud. Really, almost nothing you've said is correct. Try a very small kernel of truth with a whole lot of misdirection piled on top.

Then there's another vote count followed by:

[quote]Out of those that have votes thus far, I certainly do not wish to lynch myself.

morm.... nah. Not now.

Roa, Izzy, and Cailin- definitely not now.

So that leaves Sally and Brin.

Out of those that have votes thus far, I certainly do not wish to lynch myself.

morm.... nah. Not now.

Roa, Izzy, and Cailin- definitely not now.

So that leaves Sally and Brin.

Unfortunately I haven't played much with either one and I haven't had time to go back and reread this thread to look for things, so I really can't say if I suspect them or not. Certainly I'd prefer them to the others at this time.

Here, he rules people out without any explanation, suggest two possible votees for himself, all of which is drawn from the current vote count. He also doesn't truly suspect either of the two people he's thinking of voting for. Then he suggests voting for the no shows (Di and Nilp). Multiple people formed solid suspicion yesterDay, yet he seems unable to do so.

His next post states that there are 17 votes left, and so anyone could get lynched, yet he still continues to take his candidates from the vote count, not even trying to find someone suspicious. For all his talk of voting for the EW candidates, he never lists who those might be, and doesn't even bother to express suspicion in anyone's direction. (Possibly because he is a wolf, and as he's stated, he doesn't want to lynch his fellows by accident. Maybe all this talk of a lynch list from the EW is an attempt to get the EW to send one.)

Ha ha ha!

I'm not a WW, Eonwe. Yes, no doubt the EW would like to have me on the team at some point, but not at the start!

The classic "I'm not a werewolf" line followed by downplaying the idea of the EW picking a cavalier wolf. The light attitude he keeps using towards everyone who suspects him seems terribly forced to me, as though he's diliberately trying to not be jumpy.

I'm too likely to be scried by the GW, dreamed of by the Seer, or lynched early for doing something crazy.

Restating all the reasons others have doubted his guilt, which of course are not very good reasons. As Lhuna said, everyone thinking that makes a very good choice indeed.

But once past the opening couple days- that is when you'd want to convert me.

If I was a WW I would show up mid-day and try not to rock the boat too much on Day 1. Wouldn't you?

Since when has phantom ever tried to "not rock the boat," ever?

Post #174- vote count, and again suggesting that he vote for someone who's already been voted, and picks Nerwen, whom he's stated has been in top five list of possible wizards (which he never had the courtesy to post.) Note that Nerwen was the other person besides myself to seriously suspect him, but didn't go after him as much as I did. It occurs to me that he is the one who really started fan the flames towards the innocent Nerwen.

Post #177- tells how many votes are left

Post #184- Considers McCaber's vote for Nerwen odd, but isn't certain (how unexpected :rollseyes

Post #191- He asks Lommy what she thinks of Agan. He never states an opinion himself.

post #197- more vote count. That's four now. Ever hear of the wolf that kept posting a vote count in order to look like he was actually doing but wasn't really? Like when he hasn't actually expressed suspicion, just theories, and avoids stating an actual opinion except to pander?

#216- vote count. That's five!

then he wonders about who hasn't voted besides himself.

#237- vote count. That's six!

And that what he did yesterDay. You have already seen what he's done today, and my responses to him.

Oh yeah, I'm convinced he's a wolf. Not the EW. I think he's angry because he realizes the EW may try to sacrifice him, and that goes against what he thinks is wise. So, I won't be able to get on for the rest of the day except possibly briefly at lunch, and then I won't have enough time to read through everything and be effective. So:

++phantom

I didn't actually mean for this to be an analysis... I guess I just can't help myself.