[Formendacil]

It's quite clear that the Elves and Men outnumbered the Dwarves, no question there. I also think most are willing to concede that individually, the Dwarves would have been more formidable than any/all of their adversaries, though they seem to have been outnumbered to an extent that they would probably have lost a battle, though decimating the enemy forces.

What is not being asked is whether or not a pitched battle was the Dwarven intention.

We know from the book that the Dwarves were seeking to get to the Lonely Mountain, and the Elven/Mannish intention was the prevent the same, and the battle that might have occurred would have been fought over this question. Now, it seems to be a good bet that Dáin's men would have lost--but I question whether or not this would have been a concern for them in the long run.

How many men would it take to hold the Lonely Mountain? Thorin's company of thirteen were able to man it well enough, once they walled in the main gate, that the Elves and Men weren't quite ready to throw themselves against it without talk, and it sounds as if Dáin's army was enough to make it impregnable. How much of Dáin's army was necessary to accomplish this feat? Considering also that a large reason the Iron Hills contingent was wanted was for provisions, it does not seem that a particularly large portion of the army would have needed to have made it to the gate.

What then, if the Dwarven battle plan was simply to win at all costs through the enemy lines and reinforce their kin in the mountain? I think we can already agree this would have been devastating to the Dwarves, and nearly suicidal, but let us say that a mere fifty Dwarves made it. Personally, given that thirteen was enough to give the Elven-Mannish alliance pause, I think this would have been enough to hold the mountain indefinitely. Fifty is a pretty paltry remnant of an army of five hundred, but given that they'd have to smash their way through the enemy lines and flee to the mountain, it doesn't seem too amiss.

Now, for any conventional army, such tactics might seem like wasteful suicide, unacceptable losses, but I think we need to recall that Dwarves don't seem to exactly have that mindset. Azanalbizar has been mentioned a couple times on this thread as a comparable battle, and one should look at the the Dwarves involved there. They would do anything to avenge a grudge; imagine how they would fight to regain the treasure and fortress of their people? 90% losses, I think, would be fully acceptable losses, and with the Mountain reinforced and reprovisioned, and with winter about to set in, Thorin would have been in place to entrench himself in for months, until spring, when it would be entirely possible for a much larger force to amass from the Iron Hills and the Dwarf houses in the east (the few Dwarves in the Blue Mountains would not have been able to come, given the problems with Mirkwood and the Misty Mountains). Would the Elves and Men have had such reinforcements? Maybe a few from the Men to the south, kinsmen of the Lakemen, but not many I would think, and certainly no one from Rivendell or Lothlórien.