[skip spence]

Now this is conjecture but I think the numbers of elves and men were far greater than Dain’s 500. We are told for certain that their numbers were greater, just not by how much. Something about the situation convinces at least me that the dwarves don’t pose a credible military threat to the elves (nor an easy victory mind you). Out in the open the hosts of men and elves would surely win had it come to battle, but no one wants this, especially not the (somewhat) wise Thranduil. If they were set on reclaiming their part of the treasure (or more) at any cost they could have stormed the Mountain before Dain arrived for a quick but expensive victory. Now the elves were loath to fight dwarves, natural allies against Mordor, but more importantly, Thranduil knew well he could not afford the cost of a victory. Had he killed Thorin in his own halls a bitter war with the longbeards would surely be the outcome and that’s the last thing Thranduil wants. Thorin knows all of this too of course, and he’s confident Thranduil won’t dare open the can of worms battle is whatever the outcome. He’s hoping that Dain can reach the Mountain without too much bloodshed, and with him in his ranks he could fortify the mountain well enough to make an assault upon it near impossible. Then, no one could make any demands of him. Neither now they can, he’s thinking, overcome with greed and pride.

When Dain finally arrives it all boils over quickly. Thranduil and Bard realise the dwarves cannot be allowed to reach the mountain halls. If they do, they might as well go home again empty-handed, as they can’t not besiege a whole mountain. Of course Dain is well aware of the situation and the stakes involved. But as soon as he spots confusion and weakness he goes all in and makes for the gate without further delay, realising his chance is now. He’s hoping it won’t come to blows too, but if it does, he has no hesitation as his duty is clear to him: he’s coming to the aid of his kinsman and lord; other concerns are secondary. Now Tranduil and Bard has the choice of fighting a battle they in all likelyhood would win, but to a cost unaffordable (T. understands this, B. does not), or to let the dwarves have their way. The wise desicion would be to leave them and the treasure be but greed and pride, ever the deadliest sins in Middle Earth, stands in the way once again. We will never know what would’ve happened had the goblins not attacked, but I’m guessing a hard and bitter fight on the slopes where the three to five thousand elves and men fought and killed most of the 500 dwarves, to a terrible cost in lives, there and more importantly later, when the word had gotten around to other vindictive dwarves. Sauron would rub his hands like Monty Burns. *Excellent.*

Did the goblins save middle earth? Maybe, says this poster