A good discussion. I think that the Arkenstone was somewhat informed by the pre-existing description of the Silmarils, as much of The Hobbit's geography resembles but isn't quite that of Beleriand: it's especially worth noting that in Tolkien's Anglo-Saxon translations of the Annals he uses the OE word 'eorclanstanas' to translate 'Silmarils.' But the word literally means nothing more than 'precious or sacred stones.'
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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