[Rikae]

A look at Menel:
There is so little, I can quote his posts in their entirety.
Day 1
20 -

Originally Posted by Menel

I really do not like the look of Lommy here. She seems to be deliberately provoking Gwathagor and casting suspicion on him for no good reason. Could be nothing, but it still isn't helping anything.

Originally Posted by Menel

I also predict that Boromir88 will do something in the future that appears innocent to everyone except me. I will become suspicious of him, and he'll start attacking me if he hasn't done so already. He'll be innocent during the whole thing, though.

Suspects Lommy for obvious banter, banters with Boro. Could be seen as buddying up to Boro. (This was actually first pointed out by Nogrod.)

23 -

Originally Posted by Menel

More along the lines of "jokingly casting suspicion" than anything else. Check the abuse you gave him in your second post. I can see it was intended as a joke, but wolves have shown a tendency to toss out "silly" suspicions on Day 1.

The “abuse” in question was:

Originally Posted by Lommy

“It is now Day 1. Wolves stop PMing. Start talking.”

Just noticed this: looks like only wolves can talk now. So did we now reveal ourselves, Gwathie?

33 -

Originally Posted by Menel

To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.

*sigh* And now there's my playing style coming back to bite me. Why must I always focus on a single suspect to the exclusion of all else?

Oh, and Nogrod, my comment about Boro being innocent was made because he usually was innocent whenever I suspected him. I am not certain of his role by any means.

This actually looks sincere and sensible enough, in itself. However, he is basically following Mac here.
43 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Frankly, I am somewhat puzzled as to why Macalaure should make a big deal out of Nogrod's "protect our assets" line. The leap from that line to "Oh, he must be referring to himself as an asset to avoid being lynched" seems pretty weak to me. All I see in Nogrod's line is a simple statement that we can't rely on a ranger to protect us.

This also looks relatively reasonable (I had the same thought about Mac's response to Nogrod at the time.)
[OFF TOPIC – this just jumped out at me. Look at how mildly Nogrod responds to Mac suspicting HIM in post #28:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac and Boro have already cast some suspcions around and Lommy has pointed out things in others' posting as well. That's what we need to do to both look at the reactions and to gather information about what others think (or what they want us to believe they think).

[/OFF TOPIC]
72 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Originally Posted by Macalaure
I think I made it quite clear that I'm not making a big deal out of it. I only mentioned it because it was the only suspicious thing I saw at all at that point. Should I have said nothing at all instead?

I probably wouldn't have read it as suspicious at all, and I don't see why it was worth discussing.

As for McCaber, I don't know what to make of him. He seems to be a suspicious character regardless of what his role is.

Very mild, very noncommittal.
101 –

Originally Posted by Menel

Let's see here:

Lommy and Mac have been noted as odd, and I'm inclined to suspect Mac more.

Gwathagor... Well, I've read what you've been saying about his defense of Durelin and Sally, and it doesn't seem TOO suspicious at this point, given that Mac really did seem to be more aggressive than Boro. The only odd thing I can see about it is the words he used, and I've seen enough of his style lately to know that he tends to take things personally to a certain extent, enough that this sort of abruptness isn't overly strange for him.

I think I'll be voting for

++Macalaure

for now. It's a bit weak, I know, but none of us really have a whole lot to go on.

Earlyish (46 min before DL) vote, on admittedly weak grounds. Mac is unlikely to be lynched at this point, so a safe vote.

Day 2
179 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Ungh...

I have a lot of work to do, and I doubt I'll be posting much at all toDay.

I'm inclined to suspect Mac and McCaber. The former was suspicious enough yesterDay, and I doubt that the Gwathagor bandwagon was entirely wolf-free. McCaber got a lot of votes near the end, and if he's a Wolf, it would explain why the Gwathwagon needed reinforcement.

I know, I should provide more reasons, etc. but I don't have the time right now. I'm sorry.

*goes back to drowning in homework*

Here, he's following Nogrod's focus on the Gwathwagon and Nogrod's suspicion of McCaber. He's playing it very safe.
189 -

Originally Posted by Menel

OK, I don't have many real leads. I agree with Boro's sentiment that Mithalwen has been posting a lot but saying little. This is suspicious.

Then there's McCaber. Problem with him is that he tends to be suspicious wherever he goes. Yet, I can see what everyone sees in him. His constant suspicion of Gwath with little reason other than "He hasn't formed an opinion" puts me off. Why should anyone have formed a definite opinion that early on?

I doubt I'll be doing much on here later (big day, lots of work), so

++McCaber

Real life obligations I can understand, but Menel is really flying under the radar and riding other people's coattails here. Boro said that this is like him, but I recall a more aggressive Menel from past games.

Day 3
289 -

Originally Posted by Menel

With an innocent McCaber, I think we may have a good idea of where to start looking for Wolves.

I think one may have hid in the Caberwagon on Day 1 while another voted for Gwath, and the third one voted for someone else.

I also think there's a wolf in the latest Caberwagon, the one that lynched him.

As for the possibilities, I see a few:
Volo voted for Gwath and McCaber, not counting his Ka-vote. Staying in bandwagons is hardly ever good. Plus, all his votes were for known innocents, again not a good sign.

Nogrod votes for McCaber both times. Good choice to cover one's tracks, claim that you voted for him before, therefore you must legitimately suspect the latest bandwagonee.

And then there's Mac... Oh, what am I to do with you? Same bandwagons as Volo, and I've suspected him before. Well, I doubt he and Volo are both wolves, as voting the same bandwagons twice in a row would be dangerous.

After appearing to “take lessons from Nogrod”, he suspects him on Day 3. If they are wolves together, I would expect Nogrod to advice him to do just that. His reasoning generally looks odd here, anyway. His point about Nogrod is legitimate, though.

291 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Well, Nogrod, that is indeed a revealing analysis.

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Also, note the way she "suspects" Mac early on:
Quote:

Yes, but let's not allow that to get twisted into, "well, hey, it doesn't matter who we lynch". I suspect the wolves may try that.

Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

The no-vote on Day 1 is interesting in light of the pattern I mentioned earlier, as it definitely gets her out of the bandwagons.

Also, this would suggest that Nogrod be taken off my suspicious list for suggesting her. However I'm not doing that unless Nerwen is found guilty

Originally Posted by Menel

This is the weird and creepy thing I mentioned in my analysis of Nog. Nogrod hasn't actually given his conclusions yet, but Menel jumps on the analysis to build his own case against Nerwen. It looks too calculated, to me – I could see it as a too-hasty attempt to “stand on the shoulders” of an innocent Nogrod, or perhaps of a wolfish comrade... it could even be the results of a “let's focus on Nerwen” agreement from the previous Night. At any rate, it looks like a blunder by an overeager wolf-Menel to me.
302 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

346 -

Originally Posted by Menel

++Macalaure

He's voted in major bandwagons before, I've suspected him when he cast suspicion for little reason on Day 1, and if Rikae has a bad feeling about him, she's probably onto something. (unless she's a wolf)

Worth noting he's again following Nogrod's reasoning (about my gut feelings being valid *wince*). Also, the “I've suspected him when” ... the wording implies he's voting for Macalaure not because he actually suspects him now, but because he's mentioned suspecting him in the past. It's a small thing, but slightly wolf-slip like, as Menel seems to be focusing more on how he can justify his vote than on how suspicious Mac actually is.

Originally Posted by Menel

Gaaaa! Wait, Volo saying it's possible that he himself is a Wolf?

Well, that and his Ka-vote on Day One... He's definitely being quite the oddball this time, and I don't exactly know why.

Are the votes retractable, by any chance?

Originally Posted by Menel

Now, the question is, would a wolf-Menel make this show of surprise and wanting to change his vote? I'm not sure. Certainly it would be a good move for a wolf at this point, but I'm not sure it's one Menel would make.
362 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Yes, Volo, I see what you mean. In the absence of a Seer, every little comment can be jumped on for maximum value due to us having no solid leads.

EDIT: X-posted with Mac

I started thinking Volo looked less suspicious after further reflection too, so I don't see Menel doing so as necessarily suspicious.
387 – (About Volo and Mac being wolves together)

Originally Posted by Menel

I wouldn't exactly count on that. As I've said earlier toDay, both of them are unlikely to be wolves together, since they voted for the exact same people on Day 1 (Gwathagor) and Day 2 (McCaber). Unless this is some complicated form of double-bluffing, I don't thnk the wolves would do something like that.

Could be sincere, could be not. Good job of acting sincere at any rate – showing some concern what happens after the lynch is decided. Volo and Menel are unlikely to be wolves together, I think, based on this – or Menel wouldn't bother to tie Volo's innocence to Mac's (about to be disproven) guilt.

Day 4
402 -

Originally Posted by Menel

Macalaure, how dare ye!

My sentiments exactly.
410 –

Originally Posted by Menel

I would add my two cents' worth with my suspicions:

Nogrod: The way he joins the Caberwagon on Day 1 and on Day 2 looks like clever Wolf-strategy to me. "Look, I'm bandwagoning! But I joined his bandwagon earlier, so I'm legitimately suspicious of him!"

Volo: Bandwagons for Gwath on Day One and bandwagons for McCaber on Day Two. Ka was also a known innocent. Plus, he's just been acting STRANGE lately, as I've mentioned before.

Nerwen: Well, I don't like the way she's suspected so many known innocents, but now that we know she can't have been giving Wolf-Mac hints (since he wasn't a wolf), I'm inclined to back off on that. Her suspicion of many known innocents still bugs me quite a bit, though.

Ok, now he persists in suspecting Nogrod, for reasons he (I think) came up with on his own the other day. This makes him look better in my eyes, and also argues against the idea of him being a wolf with Nogrod slightly. This is not a good time to put pressure on a wolf-buddy Nogrod – however, a wolf-buddy Nogrod is one likely to plan to be sacrificed, too. He is, however, following Lommy and I with this, and thus continuing to go with the flow.
437 -

Originally Posted by Menel

OK, at the moment I'm inclined to trust Rikae on this. Except I don't think Durelin is quite as likely to be a wolf as Volo is. There are just too many things about him that don't add up.

Still, a Durelin-Volo connection could well be what we're facing here. I've gone back and read her posts, and while she tosses a bit of suspicion at him, it tends to be the kind of "he's not acting right, but I'll let it go for now" sort. The same sort that one wolf would use on another that's slipping up.

This is a rather weak argument for the two being connected, and I really get the impression he's simultaneously trying to look trustworthy to me by admitting Durelin is suspicious while arguing against lynching her. If Menel is a wolf, this post is good reason to believe Durelin is one of his companions. Also – I thought at first it was Menel who followed Nerwen in this (because he repeats it later on, agreeing with her), but it's actually Nerwen who repeated it a couple posts later. She did not mark this as a cross-post with Menel, and it makes her look a bit worse to me than before.
441 – (In response to Nerwen)

Originally Posted by Menel

I agree. Durelin is a strong possibility as well, but there's a much stronger case to be made for Volo.

Now, this is worse than Nerwen's repetition. He's repeating himself now, and it really looks like an attempt to win Nerwen's trust. Also, Nogrod has dropped completely out of the picture, again.

Conclusions: He looks fishy enough in his own right, for going with the flow and flying under the radar, as well as making some very weak arguments and appearing over-eager to get bandwagons rolling. In connection with a possible Nogrod-wolf, he looks worse still – one question that has gone unanswered is why Nogrod has largely left Menel alone, when he is as much a submarine as McCaber was. Nogrod suspected him a bit on day one, then backed off without explanation and focused on others – Menel did the same with Nogrod toDay. It's generally fishy that no one has really drawn attention to Menel's behavior, when he's far from innocent looking, and suggests to me that he has some wolf companions working on keeping attention elsewhere.
Actually, I think I might prefer to lynch Menel over Nogrod toDay. As I've said, it seems to me possible that Lommy is framing Nogrod or vice versa, but Menel looks quite wolfish in his own right and either of them could be seen as responsible for directing attention away from him. There is also the fact that, thinking them both wolfish, I expect we can get more evidence out of Nogrod than out of Menel later on (and more entertainment, too... it *is* a game, after all.)
At this point, though, I could vote for either.

EDIT: Fixing spacing and bolding.