[Rikae]

Well, if we can trust both Menel and Nogrod, I will eat my hat. Nogrod's case is fishy enough, what with the fact that roles won't be revealed upon death - but what kind of Ranger reveals on Day 1? I suppose it may just be a major blunder on Menel's part, but it doesn't look good to me at all. Still, from their day in the ring together, I found Valier the most suspicious of the group... at any rate, I suggest that tangled mess is one best left to the seer(s) for the moment, when there are other trios which offer slightly better odds of finding a wolf at this point, I suppose.

McCaber and Naria need to be looked at - as I said before, I found McCaber's non-vote and response to Roa's vote creepy, and I would very much like an explanation from him.

Shasta, I think, was a very likely ordo, and therefore a wolf should be found between Ka and Aganzir... however, that's a tough call. Nogrod, I would like to know why you are so convinced that Greenie was innocent - although I am not as confident about her guilt as about Gil and TM's innocence (I doubt very highly wolves would behave as they did), I certainly found her behavior yesterday - especially at the end of the day - wolfish. As for it being different from her last wolvish performance, that was her first game and I have little doubt Greenie is a quick learner.

I don't particularly like the way Sally posted in the trial and is posting now. Sure, in-character is fine, but too much is too much - and I have an instinctive distrust for "cutesy"ness in a werewolf game. Her posts seem calculated to create an aura of harmlessness.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Someone asked why Legate made all those postings about his innocense after he knew he was going to die, what was there to gain for him if he were a wolf? A lot indeed. If we had a strong opinion of his innocense we would be heavily on Menel and Valier toDay while indeed I think we should not as they are more probably innocents.

Wait just a minute here. How do we get from Legate having a lot to gain as a wolf from declaring his innocence (true, he would, but an innocent could just as well do it in a last attempt to help the village), to Menel and Valier probably being both innocent (ie, Legate was probably a wolf)? Both of them look more wolfish than Legate in my eyes, and though I've said I think they're best left for later, I think you ought to explain this a little further, day 0.0 suspicions notwithstanding.

I also don't think that Lommy's words about Groin are much evidence of anything either - if she is a wolf, she certainly realises she's cornered and is capable of coming up with double or triple bluffs as she sees fit. Groin's behavior looked innocentish to me at any rate, while Zali's was quite the opposite and Brinn's somewhere between. I'm not about to toss aside my own judgement on the word of one self-proclaimed gifted based on that of a possible cornered wolf, and I strongly suggest that we all analyze our suspects as thoroughly as possible toDay, and not take anyone's word without a grain of salt. Actually, I would always advise that, but especially now, as the setup of this game makes false gifted revelations too easy, and the numbers mean the stakes for this day one lynch are incredibly high.

Actually, we really need to think carefully about this Nogrod/Lommy situation. I have no doubt that one of the two is a wolf... and I certainly find Lommy more evil-feeling of the two. However, if Nogrod is not dead toMorrow, we have to lynch him, regardless of Lommy's role, which we won't know for certain anyway - because if he was the wolf and we let him live toMorrow, we lose the game.

Well, that's a bit of a ramble, and I'm not sure what conclusions I can come to at any rate. It's difficult to be forced to ignore four people among whom you are almost certain two wolves can be found - but I guess I will examine days 0.3, 0.5, and 0.6 more closely. The three lynched on those days look decidedly ordoish (and it does appear that mostly ordos were lynched in the trials), so looking at the survivors should be fruitful; the trio on day 0.2 is one I don't really feel so confident about - any of them could be a wolf - so I'll leave it alone for now.

We've heard so little from so many people at this point, finding a wolf outside of the Lommy/Nogrod/Menel/Valier circle still feels very much like a shot in the dark - I certainly hope we get some serious participation toDay, as we need it! I will be back with whatever I can discover about Agan, Ka, Sally, Kath, Brinn and Zali (although it may not be right away, as I'm dreadfully busy, the spring semester having just begun).

Off the top of my head and instinct alone, I think that of these six, Ka, Sally and Zali look the worst; Sally and Zali for reasons I already mentioned, and Ka mainly by default, as Aganzir's posting has been quite substantive in an innocent-feeling way, and truly substantive posting is the most difficult thing for wolves to pull off successfully, while Ka has taken refuge between a great deal of (entertaining, it's true) in-character posting. Yes, I hear Agan's a dangerous wolf (I wasn't in that game), but she feels innocent to me thus far.

EDIT: Added spaces between paragraphs, and crossed with Ka.