Okay, sorry to floodpost but I was writing this when
Menel came forwards. And as I said we need other candidates so let's see if this helps anyone else but me to get a picture of the possibilities we face.
So continuing with the speculation...
If I'm right about
Legate and
Roa (or even if I have them the wrong way around) it would mean that there is one wolf and three innocents in the group of the dead:
Shasta
Gil
Groin
Greenie
To begin with I'd say that
Shasta is/was innocent. That would leave
Agan and
The Ka as 50-50 chances of being wolves.
With
Gil there's nothing. That leaves
Sally and
Kath as questionmarks entirely then on the grounds of the lynched giving us clues.
Groin might have been the wolf indeed as one looks at
Lommywolf's posting:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lommy
I'm quite sure Groin was innocent and it was no good he was lynched. Let's just hope he wasn't a gifted. Zali still strikes me as very fishy and her somewhat nonsense-seeming analyses didn't help at all. Brinn improved her reasonableness from Day0, but I'm still quite undecided on which of them is the wolf.
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So let's keep these two (
Zali and
Brinn) looking suspicious as they are both innocents? Check also the sentence I bolded... somehow this makes me feel very uneasy about this "analysis". Why did she say that as I don't think
Groin looked especially gifted? So she thought pointing towards
Zali and
Brinn more pressingly ("we might have lost a gifted there!") would be nice as the wolf in that trio was killed already? So they are innocents then?
Grounded on the same reasoning I'd also look carefully about the option of
Greenie having been a wolf:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lommy
I think the wolf in the lot is Izzie - not because she's suspicious, but because both Rikae and Greenie seemed genuinely innocent to me both on Day0 and on their trial Day. Rikae makes points a wolf would probably not make and Greenie seemed totally different from her last game where she was a wolf, not nervous or willing to please or nonsensical at all.
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But with this I'm more insecure than with the previous one as this might also be read as trying to help
Rikae if she was a wolf. Or even implying
Izzie is one indeed ("not because she's suspicious")... At the moment I'd think
Greenie was more likely an innocent as the case with
Groin being a wolf looks far more believable. So
Rikae and
Izzie a 50-50 case as well? Or then I'm wrong with
Legate which sure is possible even if I don't believe it at least yet...
But that's still speculation as
Lommy could well make her "analysis" pointing at some fellows as looking evil and trying to help others saying / implying they are goodies - and that will turn around after we learn she was a wolf and thus adds the question whether she had that possibility of an imminent death in view aleeady when she wrote these...). Sadly they can afford these kind of tactical manouvres now with five of them around.
Anyhow that was only something based on the deaths, logical outcomes based on other speculations and
Lommy's analysis. We need to check the actual postings as well.
~*~
So my take on people at this point - without a closer look on the posts themselves (I'll be back tomorrow (RL) but will have a long day at work so I can take more time here only during the last three-four hours or so):
Wolf
Lommy (not to be lynched but killed on Night2 by me)
50-50 wolves (either one of each pair is a wolf)
Agan
The Ka
McCaber
Naria
Rikae?
Izzy?
33% wolves / 66% innocents
Sally
Kath
innocents?
Zali
Brinniel
Menel
Valier
There are a lots of questions here and these speculations surely stand on other speculations. The actual posts surely matter more but these kinds of "limiting-possibilities" should be looked after as well.
I'll be back much later - with a look at all those masses of posts you will produce while I'm away...
EDIT: X'd with Menel