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A "star" that changes in brightness can only be a planet, and the red color would suggest that it is Mars. That would be my assumption at any rate. Yes, it evokes the Eye, but since Middle-earth's stars are otherwise like ours (with the exception of the mythological elements like Eärendil; our "morning star" is normally the planet Venus), the most logical assumption would be that the light's source is from the same stars and planets.
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth.. .'
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