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Old 12-29-2007, 07:36 AM   #3
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
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Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Spamalysis

Okay, going through SpM's posts was not as hard as I feared, but at least I could better concentrate on re-thinking everything and checking my thoughts. Here we go.

DAY1
#119 Says cautious people on Day 1 are suspicious, and says this is me and Nerwen. While he says cautious is my normal behavior, he is uneasy about Nerwen "she seems portraying herself as helpful". Agrees with most people that Shasta is jumpy.

#129
Again voices suspicion about Nerwen. Says it's maybe not that hot with Shasta but with the case that's building against him (that was when no one voted him yet by that time). Turns towards Nog while agreeing with Mac. Otherwise, suspects also morm for is "badly founded" cases. Also repeats suspicion of my opening talk about pre-game things. Boro, Eomer, Mac, Kath look normal to him, about Isa, Val, Agan, Miggy, Zali needs to form impression.
Votes Nog.

Okay, I must say now this seems even more sinister to me than it did originally. I can now imagine very well that SpM is a wolf, and that his vote for Nog was intentional wolf-on-wolf vote.


DAY2
#195 Wonders why Shasta died (as many did). Posts the voting record. Is puzzled why Nog did not do more to save himself and why he voted Rikae.

Only if he was a wolf, there could be some sinister way to distance himself from Nog behind this - and also to distance himself from the Night kill. But once again, I would be rather careful, as I know how it ends if I analyse someone with too much assumptions. But again, I encourage you to form your opinions on this.

#197 Ponders Mac-Nog brotherhood theory, saying it could explain why Nog did not save himself, yet says it's problematic as Mac could have saved him. Says other possibility is Nog decided to sacrifice himself and so make other wolves who voted him look innocent, and says in that case me or Agan could be wolves. Says Eomer and Boro's votes point to that one of them could be a wolf.

This post looks like very much pondering, yet full of unvoiced questions. The trouble is, SpM does not often say things plainly, like: "XY is a wolf", but rather "(long talk)...and this could point towards XY...(long talk)", which is of course a good way to implant some opinion on others.

#233 Again wonders about Shasta's death, saying Nerwen would not probably have killed Shasta. Ponders Mac, says he backed off his Aganzir theory a little possibly because the same could apply to him. Again says that me or Agan could be wolves. I would like to quote this, actually:
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpM
The other possibility is that either Aganzir or Legate is a Wolf (or both are) and agreed with Nogrod in the final hours that they would turn against him to make themselves look good. Aganzir has explained her behaviour in voting for Nog and encouraging Shasta to do so, and it looks credible. And her vote came before Nog’s strange reaction to Rikae’s Christmas song. For that reason, Legate’s vote (on the basis of Nog’s starnge Rikae vote) actually sticks to me out as the more likely Wolf-on-Wolf vote fo the two.
In fact, this does not look good to me. I don't see how Agan's vote is better than mine. But - see below for conclusion.
In the rest of the post, he says he thinks Boro and Eomer innocent as they confessed they were trying to save Nog.
Then he says Valier is beginning to concern him. This is what I mentioned in my last post. I don't like this one bit, as I said earlier, also followed by the vote later.

#240 Says he's toying with voting one of Nog-voters. Posts list of players. Switchy-defends Aganzir (the same as above, and I really DON'T LIKE that). Otherwise, about most of the people he does not say anything much. Worried about Kath for her Nerwen-case, myself for voting Nogrod (NOTE: SpM, you ask me there why I switched for Nog - I believe you can get the answer if you read the post where I vote), also mentions Valier for her involvement in Nerwen-Kath issue.

#241 Says Kath did quite a wolvish thing saying Nerwen overreacted with the Seer-Cursed thing, posts his main suspects (Mac, Val, Kath, me, Aganzir) who he says are very close in his suspicions.

#243 Looks at TM. Asks about his reasonings, says his Eomer vote is throwaway one. Wants more explanation from Valier, votes Valier.

DAY 3
#272 Posts voting list. Briefly mentions we can't be 100% certain whether there was Ranger involved indeed. (Note down: This, if we find out a Cursed wolf happened, could point towards his innocence.)

#273 Says why he put up Mac as his suspect and says he voted Val because there seemed not to be chance to vote Mac. Stops at Nerwen's last minute scream. Okay, this is also one thing that makes me worried.

#278 Asks Boro to explain his suspicions on morm or Isa, repeats why he voted Val and not Mac (though I think he is not actually responding to what he was asked).

#281 Says my vote for Val could have been wolvish to start a bandwaggon. TM's vote was a throwaway one. He's right about this, but that says nothing even about their relationship with TM (as this is quite an obvious thing). Whatever, this is the last from him this far.

So, overall: My feelings have not gone better about SpM after rereading his posts, sometimes they made me even more uneasy. There are some people (like Aganzir probably the most), in whose case, if we learn they are wolves, we could quite well consider it another evidence of SpM being a wolf as well. Of course, then it's possible SpM, even if he is a wolf, simply found himself a "good horse" of the innocents and supports him, so I am not necessarily throwing them away both if one is a wolf. Whatever. Another thing is that I don't like the way he constantly brings back the suspicion on me, first of my opening talk about pre-game things and later. I know I may be touched by this more than other people would, as it concerns my person, but I believe the pre-game thing was solved and SpM was the only one who brought it up again. Then he seems to constantly go after me by hinting, hinting on my vote for Nog being suspicious, yet not acting on his own account. "Voice of Saruman", indeed. As I said, better if you judge for yourselves. But all in all, I have bad feelings about SpM. I will see now whether my powers are enough to make an analysis of someone else yet, but whatever the case, will be back later. Till then, goodbye.
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