[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

OT: I'm sorry to hear you're not well, Saucepan Man.

Thank you, but actually I’m fine. It’s my internet connection that keeps dying. I was trying to express it ‘in character’.

Originally Posted by morm

Although now I'm looking at things a bit differently...Would the wolves, assuming Nerwen is a wolf, have all voted for one of their own? If not, it doesn't make sense to kill Shasta. ARGH! I feel I keep talking myself in circles...

Hehe, I know the feeling. Something weird was happening towards the end of Day 1, I am sure, but it’s got me completely confused. As to your substantive point, if Nerwen is a Wolf, it doesn’t make any sense that they would kill Shasta. If NogWolf’s behaviour was down to the fact that NerWolf’s head was also on the block, Shasta’s proven innocence takes away any cover that she might have had in that regard. I don’t think a Wolfish Nerwen would have killed Shasta.

Originally Posted by Boro

Wolves enter into a village with a tremendous advantage, they know who's side everyone is on...we don't. Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"?

Well, if Mac is a Wolf, I don’t believe that was their original intention. On this line of thinking, they would have started out trying to distance themselves, but it got out of hand when others also started suspecting Noggie, so they hatched a plan to make Mac look good by encouraging Nog’s demise. That whole thing with Nogrod’s cod reasoning against Rikae and Mac jumping on it just looks starnge to me. Were it not for that, I would be more comfortable dismissing the MacWolf theory.

Another thing about Mac. He has slightly backed off his Aganzir theory. I wonder whether that might be because it was pointed out (by Rikae, I think) that the same line of reasoning applied to him (indeed moreso, given my earlier point that a MacWolf had more to gain from Nog’s death than an AganWolf).

The other possibility is that either Aganzir or Legate is a Wolf (or both are) and agreed with Nogrod in the final hours that they would turn against him to make themselves look good. Aganzir has explained her behaviour in voting for Nog and encouraging Shasta to do so, and it looks credible. And her vote came before Nog’s strange reaction to Rikae’s Christmas song. For that reason, Legate’s vote (on the basis of Nog’s starnge Rikae vote) actually sticks to me out as the more likely Wolf-on-Wolf vote fo the two.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Legate's vote against [b]Nogrod[/] I think jumps at me the most. Nogrod had already been in the lead, yet if wolfy why put that extra vote? To cover a behind when lynched?

I agree, but not for the reason that you have given, but rather for the reasoning above.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, Nogrod had just started acting in an extremely wolfish manner. If I'd been there I think I'd have changed my vote to him too, to make sure. It all seems quite reasonable to me.

Have you considered the possibility that Nog started behaving in an extremely Wolfish manner precisely because he wanted to give cover to a fellow Wolf to vote for him?

Originally Posted by Legate

I believe yesterDay, the wolves simply failed to save Nogrod from the gallows.

I really don’t agree with this. I am sure that there was at least one Wolf plus Noggie here at the deadline yesterDay. Given that they can communicate during the Day, they surely would have been able to save him had they wanted to.

Originally Posted by Legate

Concerning his vote for Rikae, I believe it was simply a waste of a vote - unless it was a wolf-on-wolf safe vote, which is also an option (a safe one at that time; though I would expect Nog to act in a more clever way. Though maybe actually this is a clever way).

I was thinking much the same. It is quite possible that a Wolf facing the gallows would put in a throwaway vote for a fellow Wolf to make them look good. But is it too obvious for Noggie? Either way, I don’t think that we can dismiss Rikae from the mix. She looks to have been acting fairly typically so far, but then I would expect a Wolf who was under no pressure to do exactly that.

Both Boro and Eomer have effectively ‘come clean’ and admitted that they were trying to save Noggie, because they thought him innocent. As I said earlier, if either was a Wolf and wanted to save him, they could have coordinated with Nog himself to do it. They both sound genuine enough to me so, for now, I am prepared to regard them both as putative innocents.

One villager who is beginning to concern me, however, is Valier. As we all know, she is a ‘hunch’ player, but my recollection is that she is normally quite confident in her hunches. Here, however, she seems far less sure about them. It doesn’t quite ring true to me, so I’ll be keeping my eye on her.

One final thought. If Azaelia does not post and vote toDay then, according to the phanto-mod’s rules, something bad will happen to her side. Not good if she’s innocent. But it may help us if she is a Wolf and, either way, might at least indicate which side she is on (assuming that she doesn’t get modfired as well).