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Macalaure · 12-02-2007, 06:21 AM

I have little time now, so here I my thoughts about the most important matters, I think. I have only skimmed today's post so far. I'll be there starting a few hours before the deadline.

1. Why Valier:

1.1. The wolves thought Valier was the seer

1.1.1. morm is a wolf
In that case, they would have killed Valier, because no possible seer should be left alive from a wolvish perspective. They would have sacrificed morm without a second thought, and then morm would be here telling us it was a frame and pointing out its weakness.

1.1.2. morm is no wolf
Same as above, but now they might have had a vague hope people might turn against mormegil.

1.2. The wolves didn't think Valier was the seer

1.2.1. They picked her because she left no tracks to them.
I can't think this is the case. There were better options for that purpose that were not suspected by so many.

1.2.2. They picked her because she is a strong player who was yet undangerous
Possible, but this would mean that all other players who are considered to be strong were on the right track to some degree. Given the way the votes for Nerwen went, I'd say this is unlikely.

1.2.3. They tried to frame morm
I don't think so, because, as morm pointed out, it's a very weak frame.

1.3. Conclusion: I think they thought Valier to be the seer. There seems to be no indication to whether morm is a wolf or not. However, the way he made fun of the possibility that it was a frame seems odd to me. In fact, Lommy's accusation and morm's response to it give me a slight furry-furry taste.

2. The votes

2.1. I said it yesterday and I say it today: I don't like Kath's vote for TM.
2.2. The Might's intention to find out whether a self-vote would have the same effect it had on Rikae in a village of yore makes him look suspicious. It would be a good wolf-survival-tactic.
2.3. Sally votes morm due to a hunch. She adds a fourth name, which would only make sense for a wolf-Sally if neither Lommy nor TM are wolves.
2.4. morm vote for Valier would make sense for both cases, evil and good morm.
2.5. Fea adds a vote to morm. This probably rules out the possibility of both of them being wolves
2.6. Brinn's vote keeps Nerwen in the run. A good move for a wolf if all the others candidates were innocent - or all guilty, but that's unlikely.

Then Kuru and I make comments about a double-lynch and then people start announcing their votes. In hindsight, it was a bad idea to make them do this. From this point on, It was way too easy to hide behind Nerwen-votes (Legate, Lommy, Aganzir, A Little Green and me)

2.7. Of these four, Legate's vote seems most suspicious for me. His vote (after the announcements) manifests the inevitable outcome. It's suspicious how, after seeing many options in his posts before, he turns towards Nerwen very quickly at this point - no longer looking at alternative options any more.
2.8. If Volo is honest about not reading page 3, then his vote for Valier seems innocent. But that's an "if" in there.
2.9. Aganzir and I cross-vote for Nerwen. After Legate's vote, the path to go for the wolves was clear. For both of us this would have been an easy vote if one of us was a wolf.
2.10. Menel votes for morm in a confused manner. Looks innocent.
2.11. A Little Green (are we sure we want to shorten this to Green or Greenie?) adds her vote for Nerwen. Suspicious.

Now Legate pops in with a reminder about double-lynchs that seems overdone. So many people have announced their votes that there was no real risk of a double-lynch anymore. I find this comment very suspicious as it seems to desire to mislead the remaining voters.

2.12. Lommy votes for Nerwen and I agree that this looks suspicious because of her "I hope she's not an ordo". False tears?
2.13. Kuru adds the last one. He's the only one not to announce his vote, which one could interpret in evil and in good ways.
2.14. Non-voters: Shasta and Farael.

Suspicions basing solely on these comments:

Suspicious: Lommy, Legate, morm

A Little Suspicious: Aganzir, The Might, A Little Green, Kath

Unknown: Vo?o (no typo

), Fea, Sally, Farael, Shasta

Innocentish: Menel, Brinn, Kuru

More later.

12-02-2007, 06:21 AM	#189
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	I have little time now, so here I my thoughts about the most important matters, I think. I have only skimmed today's post so far. I'll be there starting a few hours before the deadline. 1. Why Valier: 1.1. The wolves thought Valier was the seer 1.1.1. morm is a wolf In that case, they would have killed Valier, because no possible seer should be left alive from a wolvish perspective. They would have sacrificed morm without a second thought, and then morm would be here telling us it was a frame and pointing out its weakness. 1.1.2. morm is no wolf Same as above, but now they might have had a vague hope people might turn against mormegil. 1.2. The wolves didn't think Valier was the seer 1.2.1. They picked her because she left no tracks to them. I can't think this is the case. There were better options for that purpose that were not suspected by so many. 1.2.2. They picked her because she is a strong player who was yet undangerous Possible, but this would mean that all other players who are considered to be strong were on the right track to some degree. Given the way the votes for Nerwen went, I'd say this is unlikely. 1.2.3. They tried to frame morm I don't think so, because, as morm pointed out, it's a very weak frame. 1.3. Conclusion: I think they thought Valier to be the seer. There seems to be no indication to whether morm is a wolf or not. However, the way he made fun of the possibility that it was a frame seems odd to me. In fact, Lommy's accusation and morm's response to it give me a slight furry-furry taste. 2. The votes 2.1. I said it yesterday and I say it today: I don't like Kath's vote for TM. 2.2. The Might's intention to find out whether a self-vote would have the same effect it had on Rikae in a village of yore makes him look suspicious. It would be a good wolf-survival-tactic. 2.3. Sally votes morm due to a hunch. She adds a fourth name, which would only make sense for a wolf-Sally if neither Lommy nor TM are wolves. 2.4. morm vote for Valier would make sense for both cases, evil and good morm. 2.5. Fea adds a vote to morm. This probably rules out the possibility of both of them being wolves 2.6. Brinn's vote keeps Nerwen in the run. A good move for a wolf if all the others candidates were innocent - or all guilty, but that's unlikely. Then Kuru and I make comments about a double-lynch and then people start announcing their votes. In hindsight, it was a bad idea to make them do this. From this point on, It was way too easy to hide behind Nerwen-votes (Legate, Lommy, Aganzir, A Little Green and me) 2.7. Of these four, Legate's vote seems most suspicious for me. His vote (after the announcements) manifests the inevitable outcome. It's suspicious how, after seeing many options in his posts before, he turns towards Nerwen very quickly at this point - no longer looking at alternative options any more. 2.8. If Volo is honest about not reading page 3, then his vote for Valier seems innocent. But that's an "if" in there. 2.9. Aganzir and I cross-vote for Nerwen. After Legate's vote, the path to go for the wolves was clear. For both of us this would have been an easy vote if one of us was a wolf. 2.10. Menel votes for morm in a confused manner. Looks innocent. 2.11. A Little Green (are we sure we want to shorten this to Green or Greenie?) adds her vote for Nerwen. Suspicious. Now Legate pops in with a reminder about double-lynchs that seems overdone. So many people have announced their votes that there was no real risk of a double-lynch anymore. I find this comment very suspicious as it seems to desire to mislead the remaining voters. 2.12. Lommy votes for Nerwen and I agree that this looks suspicious because of her "I hope she's not an ordo". False tears? 2.13. Kuru adds the last one. He's the only one not to announce his vote, which one could interpret in evil and in good ways. 2.14. Non-voters: Shasta and Farael. Suspicions basing solely on these comments: Suspicious: Lommy, Legate, morm A Little Suspicious: Aganzir, The Might, A Little Green, Kath Unknown: Vo?o (no typo ), Fea, Sally, Farael, Shasta Innocentish: Menel, Brinn, Kuru More later.