Sleepy's Take
Group A
Angband are surely through to the next round now. They've probably done enough to secure top spot as well. The hunt for second place is still on though. Any of the three teams could take it. Realistically though only Erebor and Moria have a chance. Valinor face the daunting task of having to beat Angband while hoping that Moria beat Erebor. Even then they'd have to rely on a superior goal difference.
Erebor only need a draw against Moria to qualify. Moria would need to beat Erebor to make it through, while hoping that Valinor do not defeat Angband. I can not really see Valinor taking any points off Angband and therefore reckon it will come down to Erebor and Moria. If Moria can sort out their issues I think they may have a chance but at the moment I believe the group will end like so,
1st- Angband
2nd- Erebor
3rd- Moria
4th- Valinor
Group B
Tuna have booked their berth in the next round and their match against Lothlorien will decide who tops the group, then again in Lothlorien's case a loss could threaten their qualification. I believe Lothlorien will play cautiously and look for a draw. The Shire are up against Brethil. It is a game that I would expect the Shire to win. They would however have to hope that Tuna beat Lothlorien by at least two goals for the goal difference problem to clear.
I believe Lothlorien may just snatch a draw in here but even if they fail to do that I can not see the Shire closing the gap on goal difference. Then again Brethil have leaked in plenty of goals. I think Lothlorien will follow Tuna out of this group, just barely.
1st- Tuna
2nd- Lothlorien
3rd- Shire
4th- Brethil
Group C
Nargothrond have been the dominant force in this group. Numenor too have done quite well though what happens in their second match is yet to be seen. I assume that the last day match-up of Numenor vs. Nargothrond will decide the group leader. I really doubt Niggle's Parish or Buckland have any chance of making it out of the group and will be playing each other for third place.
While I'm undecided as to whether Nargothrond or Numenor will top the group I am willing to take a risk and predict the following,
1st- Nargothrond
2nd- Numenor
3rd- Buckland
4th- Niggle's Parish
Group D
This is a very interesting situation. With two games played by all, each team finds themselves with a one and a loss, in other words 3 points each. It will definitely be an interesting final day. Mordor take on Dor Lomin and Tol Eressea take on Roverandom. I do not think there will be any fluke wins and I believe Mordor will top the table on goal difference after Mordor and Tol Eressea win their respective matches.
1st- Mordor
2nd- Tol Eressea
3rd- Roverandom
4th- Dor Lomin
Group E
This group is still fairly open although I guess Misty Mountains have secured their place in the next round. I guess it's a toss up between Tol In Gauroth and Fangorn. Whichever of them wins is better poised to finish second. It's really not an interesting group decide being so open. It's too weak in my opinion.
1st- Misty Mountains
2nd- Fangorn
3rd- Old Grey Hill
4th- Tol In Gauroth
Group F
Gondolin have secured their spot in the next round and as soon as Bree beat Wooton Major they too will have secured their place in the next round. I had expected Mirkwood to do better but that's football, things tend do go as they want to.
1st- Gondolin
2nd- Bree
3rd- Mirkwood
4th- Wooton Major
Group G
Interestingly enough at this point in time any of the four teams could go through. Although some only have a very slim chance. I very much expect Gondor to defeat Rohan today but the outcome is still to be known and Rohan are very much capable of winning.
Barrow-Downs: With 6 points one can assume they are through to the next round. However, Inklings, Gondor and Rohan are all capable of matching their points tally. Matching their goal difference will be highly improbable though hence I believe the 'Downs are certain qualifiers. Their last day match is against Rohan which, perhaps, could be called an almost definite win.
Inklings: Currently second on 3 points. They will be facing off against a rather tough Gondor team. The Gondorians gave the 'Downs a run for their money in a game in which the scored perhaps was a bit unfair. Gondor could very well beat the Inklings here which should give them six points and a qualifying position.
Gondor: They will have to face the Inklings on the final day. I believe they will beat Rohan today and then go on to beat the Inklings and finish second.
Rohan: I expect them to lose to the 'Downs and finish on zero points.
1st- Barrow Downs
2nd- Gondor
3rd- Inklings
4th- Rohan
Group H
Group H is open for Ham, Doriath and Arnor. The final day fixtures will see Ham take on Arnor and Doriath face Rivendell. Doriath will be playing for a win as that is the only thing that can assure them qualification. It will not be that easy a task as Rivendell will be looking to prevent an embaressment and score at least a point. Ham and Arnor have it all to play for. A draw here wouldmean Ham go through while Arnor have to rely on Rivendell to beat Doriath. A Ham win will see them through, an Arnor win would see them through. This group is really too close to call.
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