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I think perhaps you're underrating the intelligence and power of the self-styled Master of the Fates of Arda. I just read a very lucid amateur review of CoH, which likened Morgoth to a chessmaster playing an amateur: seeing the board a dozen moves ahead, anticipating everything his victim might do and having a counter ready.* I have little doubt that Morgoth knew within a standard deviation where Hurin would go and what he would do.
NB: There is no authentic JRRT text associating Hurin with the Nauglamir: in all versions pre-Christopher Thingol has the Necklace made from the hoard after Hurin departs. Nor did JRRT ever say anything about Hurin being healed.
* I've been that amateur, and it's a horrible, suffocating feeling, like being Kaa the Python's prey.
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