[Nogrod]

Nogrod tried to sleep but the sleep didn't come. His head was too full with differnt thoughts that criss-crossed his mind. Eventually he rose to sit and voiced his mind.

"I think we have an easy solution and a hard one to choose from toDay.

The easy one is that Gil and Izzy are the wolves and Turín indeed is no sleeper as we say but the seer who had been thence "sleeping" ie. seeing dreams. So when we were told that Beleg woke Turín up it only meant to hint that he was a seer - as that same story revealed to us that Beleg is a ranger to guard us. I mean we were never told what their roles were but to help us and revealing both roles would be logical. Revealing one role and just hinting at the laziness of another would sound more improbable...

The hard one is that the hint of Turín's sleepiness actually refers to him being not at the level of his duties and that he's failing us, but that neither of the wolves is Gil or Izzy. That would be something cunning wolves could use to their favour, taking even such drastic measures as to intentionally failing a kill as to make us kill a quiet one eg. lynch Turín and possibly with him Nienor. But that would also mean that our wolves - or at least another one of them would feel her/himself quite secure right now. And that would need setting our minds totally a new.

The hard solution would not be too foolhardy for the wolves. That means they could have thought of this and thence this scenario is possible as well.

If Turín and Nienor die as a pair as I think is probable on the grounds of the hints given to us, the wolves have 50% chance of a jackpot of two innocents killed toDay - one of them possibly the seer - if we lynch a quiet one.

And even if we managed to choose the "non-Turín" quiet toDay, the chance the next Day is pretty favourable to them as it would be 2 against 5 or 4, and with two votes they could do a lot in voting as most of us seem to have different views about the possible culprits. And they would have the chance of either lynching by Day or killing by Night two of us if Nienor or Turín is hit with those four trials (toDay, toNight, nextDay, nextNight - so a host of possibilities to hit them and lesser chances of not hitting them).

On the next Day we would probably be lost - if we weren't lost already by then. They could capitulate together any bad vote. One innocent voting another innocent would basically lead to the two wolves securing their win.

So not a bad plan indeed. Why do you guy say the wolves wouldn't skip a kill? In this situation it seems like a very good move.

If the harder solution is right I just hope the wolves have counted this far that Turín is a quiet one and that he actually isn't, as the story we were told on the first Night here could indicate also that he's just a seer dreaming his dream... and not a sleepy-gifted.

And happily even this at least to me newly discovered uncertainty - if the wolves haven't thought of this already - might make also them a bit more worried and tense about their situation.

It's coming more and more down to Turín and Beleg now. Depending on their feeling of security, their knowledge and the direness of our lynching-situation toDay from their perspective they should be really thoughtful as to when to reveal their knowledge. Hopefully not toDay but toMorrow is the last Day for it.

And let's hope Turín's sleep meant he is a seer and not that he is failing us. Indeed I feel more comfortable with this interpretation right now.

But the hard choice is selecting which of these solutions is the right one - or is there a third one...

I'll now try to sleep on it at last."