The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post

**The Saucepan Man** · 05-01-2007, 10:43 AM

I am sure that there are answers to be found in the Day 1 voting. I messed up yesterDay in my musings in this regard because I somehow got it into my head that Nogrod had said that he had voted for Celuien and not Rikae.

So, bear with me while I go through it again ...

Stated votes for Rikae: Menel, Gil, Brinniel.

Of those, we know that Menel and Brinniel were innocent. Nogrod said yesterDay that he did not vote for Legate (as stated on Day 1) but instead voted for Rikae.

So we have three known votes for Rikae, possibly four (if Gil is innocent).

Stated votes for Legate: Boro, Mac and Nogrod.

As noted, Nogrod did not vote for Legate. So that’s two known votes for Legate.

Stated votes for Celuien: Lomiella, Eomer, Roa and Aganzir.

That’s one known vote for Celuien. But she must have received at least three to have been lynched instead of Rikae. Eomer, as Lynch Seer, claimed that Celuien had received five votes.

Possibility 1: Eomer is innocent and stated the votes correctly. It follows, in these circumstances, that Lomiella and Aganzir are most likely innocent and that at least one other innocent (probably two, as it is unlikely that Glirdy voted) stated a vote for someone else, but in fact voted for Celuien.

Possibility 2: Eomer is lying. But we know that Celuien must have received at least three votes. One of those was Roa’s Even if Eomer is lying, Lomiella and Aganzir are most likely innocent, since their two votes are the most likely explanation for Celuioen, rather than Rikae, being lynched.

Possibility 2 seems the most likely to me. If so, why would Eomer lie about the number of votes cast for Celuien unless he is a Vampire? In which case, Kitanna is telling the truth and is the Shade. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that Eomer is not a Vampire, Kitanna almost certainly is one.

So, it would seem sensible to lynch either Kitanna or Eomer toDay. My strong inclination is to go with the latter.

Unless I have messed up in my reasoning again - in which case, I should be grateful to have it pointed out.

05-01-2007, 10:43 AM	#500
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Day 1 voting (again) I am sure that there are answers to be found in the Day 1 voting. I messed up yesterDay in my musings in this regard because I somehow got it into my head that Nogrod had said that he had voted for Celuien and not Rikae. So, bear with me while I go through it again ... Stated votes for Rikae: Menel, Gil, Brinniel. Of those, we know that Menel and Brinniel were innocent. Nogrod said yesterDay that he did not vote for Legate (as stated on Day 1) but instead voted for Rikae. So we have three known votes for Rikae, possibly four (if Gil is innocent). Stated votes for Legate: Boro, Mac and Nogrod. As noted, Nogrod did not vote for Legate. So that’s two known votes for Legate. Stated votes for Celuien: Lomiella, Eomer, Roa and Aganzir. That’s one known vote for Celuien. But she must have received at least three to have been lynched instead of Rikae. Eomer, as Lynch Seer, claimed that Celuien had received five votes. Possibility 1: Eomer is innocent and stated the votes correctly. It follows, in these circumstances, that Lomiella and Aganzir are most likely innocent and that at least one other innocent (probably two, as it is unlikely that Glirdy voted) stated a vote for someone else, but in fact voted for Celuien. Possibility 2: Eomer is lying. But we know that Celuien must have received at least three votes. One of those was Roa’s Even if Eomer is lying, Lomiella and Aganzir are most likely innocent, since their two votes are the most likely explanation for Celuioen, rather than Rikae, being lynched. Possibility 2 seems the most likely to me. If so, why would Eomer lie about the number of votes cast for Celuien unless he is a Vampire? In which case, Kitanna is telling the truth and is the Shade. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that Eomer is not a Vampire, Kitanna almost certainly is one. So, it would seem sensible to lynch either Kitanna or Eomer toDay. My strong inclination is to go with the latter. Unless I have messed up in my reasoning again - in which case, I should be grateful to have it pointed out. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!