Picking up on some comments from earlier:
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Originally Posted by Mac
I wonder why SPM calls Nogrod's vote a safe vote. With so many votes not given, the fake votes of the vampires and the course of the suspicions near the deadline, I too thought we had a good shot at lynching Legate.
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At the time Nogrod voted (right at the deadline), Legate had 1 stated vote, whereas Rikae had 3 and Celuien had 4. Other than you, no one else had given any indication that they might vote for him. Sorry, but it looks one of the safer votes to me.
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Originally Posted by Mac
Unless a vampire (who has a better idea about who the actual lynchee is than innocents do!) has a reason to fear for himself or one of his companions, I don't see why they shouldn't post the riddle. For them it's nothing but a calculated risk to have another innocent killed.
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Fair point. I was considering whether we might be able to draw conclusions on the Lynch Seer’s guilt or innocence from whether or not he or she posts a riddle. Perhaps, however, it is best to wait and see how things actually pan out each morning and then try to draw conclusions.
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Originally Posted by Eomer
Maybe a vampire said that he/she would vote for a fellow vampire in public, but then actually cast his/her real vote for Celuien.
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No, the Vampires cannot vote. The missing Celuien vote was either cast by Glirdy (unlikely) or by someone who stated that they voted for someone else/did not vote. Most likely the Shade, in my view.
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Originally Posted by Aganzir
Isn't the Shade able to protect during Nights, too? What if the Ranger protects Rikae next Night and the Shade the following Night? This would win us one dream more.
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A good point, worth making. But we can’t rely on it. The Shade is playing the perecentage game. Hopefully he or she will see that, as matter stand, his/her best interests lie with siding with the innocents.
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Originally Posted by Aganzir
I don't know if it would be clever to vote toDay for someone who Rikae is possibly going to dream of toNight, as we won't know who has been lynched until morning.
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A fair point, unless Rikae can get a good indication of who is likely to be lynched from the stated votes.