[Macalaure]

So that's how it looks like when both Nogrod and SPM suffer from insomnia.


Anyway:

Originally Posted by Boro

Though you will see that I consistently was on Legate's case yesterday, I voted for Legate, and I don't think that's going to change today.

Boro, you are aware that you wrote that at a time when Legate hasn't even posted (and still hasn't)?


Kitanna's case of Rikae looks a little knee-jerk to me. Though I'm definitely not saying Rikae is innocent, I'd like to echo Roa and say that the reasons against her that have been given so far don't look too convincing. In fact, they made me rethink my opinions on those who stated them.


Concerning SPM and Nogrod, I'm leaning more towards SPM being the evil one out of the two. They both make bad cases against Rikae, but Nogrod's seems more confused while SPM's has a sneakiness to it.

I wonder why SPM calls Nogrod's vote a safe vote. With so many votes not given, the fake votes of the vampires and the course of the suspicions near the deadline, I too thought we had a good shot at lynching Legate.

And what was the point behind SPM's post count?

I don't want to start a pointless Lynch Seer debate, but I disagree with this:

Originally Posted by Espiem

We should bear in mind that the Lynch Seer might be a Vampire although, in those circumstances, he or she is only likely to post a riddle if the lynchee is a fellow Vampire (and, even then, it would be very risky for them). It is possible, if the lynchee is innocent, that a Vampiric Lynch Seer might post a riddle if he or she is sufficiently certain that the lynchee will name an innocent. However, I think that a Lynch Seer who posts a riddle will, in most cases, be innocent.

It follows that it will be dangerous for a Lynch Seer to post the riddle (and this will be exacerbated given our agreed approach to post our votes, since these may be compared to the Lych Seer‘s figures the next Day, if the Lynch Seer survives the Night). For those of us who are ordos, however, this should not be a problem.

Obviously, an innocent Lynch Seer should only post the riddle if they are relatively confident that the lynchee is not a Vampire. Similarly, the lynchee whose riddle is posted, if innocent, should think carefully before naming a victim to take with them.

Unless a vampire (who has a better idea about who the actual lynchee is than innocents do!) has a reason to fear for himself or one of his companions, I don't see why they shouldn't post the riddle. For them it's nothing but a calculated risk to have another innocent killed.
If the lynched is a fellow vampire on the other hand, then I'm sure the evil Lynch Seer won't let him/her have a kill, because it would make the evil Lynch Seer himself look bad.
If Volo chooses the Lynch Seer random, then it's trivially much more probable that he is innocent...
And in order to have a suspicion on whether the lynched one is evil or not, the Lynch Seer will first have to figure out who the lynched individual was. If the voting is close, that's guesswork, because the riddles don't seem to be too simple.